Bowl Projections for Louisville After Week 4

Four weeks down. Four wins in the books. And with the latest win coming in exciting and convincing fashion, Louisville fans aren’t the only ones optimistic about what lays ahead.

After Louisville slipping slightly from #27 to #34 last week, the Cards moved inside the Top 30 again to #29. They face SP+’s #55 N.C. State this Friday, whose offense and defense rank 70th and 45th, respectively. Here’s the updated SP+ win total expectancy chart:

Louisville’s win expectancies against N.C. State and Pitt both got big boosts with their likelihood of beat the Wolfpack going from 53.52% to 66.4%, and Pitt going from 53.28% to 65.11%. On the other

hand, Louisville’s win expectancy against SP+’s 24th-ranked Duke slipped again from 53.28% to 51.64%, a staggering drop from the preseason number of 71.19%. The Cardinals’ chances of beating 13th-ranked Miami dropped two points from 33.17% to 31.27%. But my favorite development since last week was that the Cards are now favored to beat Kentucky, with a 51.41% chance of doing so.

Over at ESPN’s FPI, the projections for Cards improved (again) as their projected record for the Cards improved from a 8.7-3.5 (9-3) to 9.1-3.2 (a more solid 9-3). And here’s how FPI projects the Cardinals’ chances winning each of their remaining games:

N.C. State - 67.6% (62.4%)

#11 Notre Dame - 32.1% (29%)

Pittsburgh - 63.7% (55.3%)

#17 Duke - 61.7% (60.7%)

Virginia Tech - 88.4% (84.8%)

Virginia - 92.7% (92.7%)

#18 Miami - 29.0% (29.1%)

Kentucky - 66.5% (64.9%)

Oddly enough UofL’s odds to beat Duke…improved? I’m not complaining, but interesting to note. Only other notable change from FPI was Louisville getting a big boost against Pitt.

Now for the fun stuff…

ESPN:

Military Bowl (Bonagura) - Louisville vs. Memphis

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, 2 p.m., ESPN

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Schlabach) – Louisville vs. Florida

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Dec. 27, 5:30PM. ESPN

Action Network (Brett McMurphy):

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Louisville vs. Kansas State

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Dec. 28, 5:45PM. ESPN

CBS (Jerry Palm):

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl – Louisville vs. Illinois

Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

Dec. 28, 2:15PM. ESPN

College Football News:

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Oregon Washington

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 29, 2:00PM, ESPN

247 Sports:

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Louisville vs. Central Florida Golden Knights

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Dec. 28, 5:45PM. ESPN

Athlon:

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – Louisville vs. Tennessee

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Dec. 29, 12:00PM. ESPN

College Football Network:

Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Louisville vs. Missouri

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Dec. 27, 5:30PM. ESPN

Yahoo!

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – Louisville vs. Ole Miss

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Dec. 29, 12:00PM. ESPN

Total Tally: Gator Bowl (2), Mayonnaise Bowl (2), Pop-Tarts Bowl (2), Pinstripe Bowl, Sun Bowl, Military Bowl.

Mayonnaise Bowl is back on the radar this week as it pulls even with the Gator and Pop-Tarts Bowls.