Bowl Projections for Louisville after Week 3

Three weeks down and the Cards are already ̶o̶n̶e̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶ ̶a̶w̶a̶y̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶m̶a̶t̶c̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶K̶e̶n̶n̶y̶ ̶P̶a̶y̶n̶e̶’̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶t̶a̶l̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶L̶o̶u̶i̶s̶v̶i̶l̶l̶e̶ halfway to being bowl eligible.

After failing to cover Bill Conelly’s SP+’s projected spread, Louisville slipped slightly from #27 to #34. They face SP+’s #83 Boston College this weekend. Here’s the updated SP+ win total expectancy chart:

Looks like this is the Cardinal’s last highly favored game until they face Virginia Tech in November. Also of note, Louisville’s win expectancy against Duke has slipped from the preseason number of 71.19% all the way to 53.28%. But the win total is still 8 wins with a 29.32% chance of doing so, and a 26.11% of winning 9.

Over at ESPN’s FPI, the projections for Cards improved again as their projected record for the Cards improved from a 8.3-3.9 (8-4) to 8.7-3.5 (9-3), and gives Louisville roughly a 98.1% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. And here’s how FPI projects the Cardinals’ chances winning each of their remaining games:

Boston College - 88.5% (92.1% last week)

N.C. State - 62.4% (56.4%)

#9 Notre Dame - 29% (24.7%)

Pittsburgh - 55.3% (44.3%)

#18 Duke - 60.7% (67%)

Virginia Tech - 84.8 (81.4%)

Virginia - 92.7% (78.5)

#20 Miami - 29.1% (26.7%)

Kentucky - 64.9% (65.6%)

Not a lot of movement here other than Virginia’s drubbing by Maryland giving the Cards a big boost in win expectancy over them. BC also didn’t receive as big of a boost from scaring FSU as some may have expected. And once again the Cards’ number against Duke continues to drop.

Now for the fun stuff…

ESPN:

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl (Bonagura) – Louisville vs. Washington State

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 29, 2:00PM, ESPN

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (Schlabach) – Louisville vs. Texas A&M

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Dec. 29, 12:00PM. ESPN

Action Network (Brett McMurphy):

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Louisville vs. Central Florida Golden Knights

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Dec. 28, 5:45PM. ESPN

CBS (Jerry Palm):

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl – Louisville vs. Maryland

Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

Dec. 28, 2:15PM. ESPN

College Football News:

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Louisville vs. Central Florida Golden Knights

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Dec. 28, 5:45PM. ESPN

247 Sports:

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl – Louisville vs. Rutgers

Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

Dec. 28, 2:15PM. ESPN

Athlon:

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – Louisville vs. Tennessee

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Dec. 29, 12:00PM. ESPN

College Football Network:

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – Louisville vs. Tennessee

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Dec. 29, 12:00PM. ESPN

Yahoo!

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Oregon State

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 29, 2:00PM, ESPN

Total Tally: Gator Bowl (3), Sun Bowl (2), Pop-Tarts Bowl (2, also, brown sugar cinnamon are the best), Pinstripe Bowl (2).

The Sun Bowl has finally been unseated as this year’s favorite, and the Gator Bowl has taken the lead.