Louisville Bowl Projections After Week 9

Yellow Fever? MORE LIKE ORANGE FEVER

By ConorShea@CurlyShea Nov 2, 2023, 9:30am EDT

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2007 FedEx Orange Bowl: Louisville v Wake Forest

There’s lots to be excited about when looking ahead at what we have left this season after the Cards blanked Duke 23-0. As always, with the first College Football Playoff poll dropping it’s an awful lot easier to project bowls since those will be the rankings that are used for bowl selections. And with the Cards sitting at #13 in the first ranking with only one loss on their record, they are still in the race for a potential berth in the College Football Playoff.

But in order to even dream of winning the ACC Championship Game and crashing the CFP, they have to make the ACC Championship Game first. A big step in getting that second spot in Charlotte is beating Virginia Tech this weekend, who are the only other one-loss team left in the race.

Let’s see how the computers project this Saturday’s big game and the rest of the season

Starting with Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings,

With a dominant effort against Duke the Cards’ chances of reaching 10+ improved this week and they’re now projected to win 9.68 games, a slight 10-2 lean than 9-3. Louisville’s chances of beating Virginia Tech only rose half a percentage point to 77.6%, but against Virginia, Miami, and Kentucky we saw increases of 3% (87.67%), 6% (43.69%), and 5% (58.61), respectively. I don’t think any of the remaining games will be particularly easy, especially with two statistical tossups to finish the season, but you have to like what’s left in front of you.

Over at ESPN’s FPI, the Cards are back at #21 with a projected record of 10.0-2.7 (no idea if that’s a 10-2 or 9-3 lean). And here’s how FPI projects the Cardinals’ chances winning each of their remaining games:

Virginia Tech - 78.3% (78.3% last week. Weird)

Virginia - 88.2% (86.9%)

Miami - 44.2% (33.4%)

Kentucky - 73.3% (68.2%)

Okay now I’m starting to get worried about how much FPI hates UK. Also, very interesting the Va Tech game went an entire week without movement. Not sure how that’s possible.

Now for the most accurate projections to date!

ESPN:

Capital One Orange Bowl (Bonagura) - Louisville vs. Ohio State