Bowl Projections for Louisville After Week 5

Five weeks down. Five wins in the books. And one of the biggest home games in school history is on the books for this Saturday. Ahh, I missed enjoying Cardinal football like this.

Not a ton of movement after Louisville’s bizarre game against N.C. State last week as the Cards remain at #29 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. Notre Dame looks awfully impressive on paper as they rank 8th overall. Here’s the updated SP+ win total expectancy chart:

The biggest move of the week is Louisville’s former 87.79% chance of beating Virginia Tech slipping all the way down to 79.66% after the Hokies’ impressive showing against spiraling Pitt. The Cardinals’ odds of beating Notre Dame also slipped from ~39% down to ~35%, with SP+ predicting an Irish 29-22 victory over the good guys. Also of note, Duke is now officially favored to beat Louisville as the Cards now have a sub-50% chance of beating the Blue Devils.

Over at ESPN’s FPI, the Cards sit at #27 and the projected record for Cards improved from 9.1-3.2 to 9.2-3.1. And here’s how FPI projects the Cardinals’ chances winning each of their remaining games:

#10 Notre Dame - 29.5% (32.1% last week)

Pittsburgh - 66.2% (63.7%)

#19 Duke - 56.4% (61.7%)

Virginia Tech - 82.9% (88.4%)

Virginia - 90.9% (92.7%)

#17 Miami - 27.4% (29.0%)

#20 Kentucky - 58.6% (66.5%)

Honestly not much to report here, but interesting to see that even with UK’s impressive win over Florida and UofL’s close win on the road, that projections across the board haven’t changed too much for the Battle for the Governor’s Cup.

Now for the fun stuff…

ESPN:

Military Bowl (Bonagura) - Louisville vs. Memphis

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, 2 p.m., ESPN

Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Schlabach) – Louisville vs. Florida

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Dec. 27, 5:30PM. ESPN

Action Network (Brett McMurphy):

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Louisville vs. Kansas State

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Dec. 28, 5:45PM. ESPN

CBS (Jerry Palm):

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl – Louisville vs. Illinois

Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

Dec. 28, 2:15PM. ESPN

College Football News:

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Washington State

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 29, 2:00PM, ESPN

247 Sports:

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Louisville vs. Kansas State

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Dec. 28, 5:45PM. ESPN

Athlon:

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – Louisville vs. Ole Miss

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Dec. 29, 12:00PM. ESPN

College Football Network:

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Louisville vs. West Virginia(!)

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Dec. 28, 5:45PM. ESPN

Yahoo!

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – Louisville vs. Ole Miss

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Dec. 29, 12:00PM. ESPN

Total Tally: Pop-Tarts Bowl (3), Gator Bowl (2), Mayonnaise Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Sun Bowl, Military Bowl.

Only one bowl projection changed from last week but it’s perhaps the most exciting one on the board with College Football Network predicting a rivalry renewal between the Cards and Mountaineers for Pop-Tart glory.