Titillating, Tantalizing...Tiebreakers

I’m well aware that a small percentage of you are reading this sentence simply due to the word selection in the headline, and this is a judgement free zone, but stick with me here because things are about to get nuts....

As we head down the home stretch of the ACC title race I think most fans are well aware at this point that the Cards are in the drivers seat to making a trip a Charlotte and playing the Seminoles of Florida State for an ACC Championship. Win all three ACC games remaining on your schedule, and many of us are willingly jumping on a plane to go to Charlotte, NC in December. No knock to Charlotte but it’s not what I had penciled in for my winter getaway back in the summer. So Plan A is the simple one...but...what happens if we drop one of those three? Do we still have a shot? Does it matter if we drop one verses another? Do other teams outside of these three games factor into the equation? Well, the answers are yes, yes, and yes. But first we must understand the tiebreaker scenarios.

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I’ve shared a few behind the scenes screencaps of my ACC spreadsheet on Twitter/X but below you will see the tangled web which can trap countless scenarios over the next four weeks. You would think the rabbit hole isn’t that deep with only a few weeks left in conference play, but you my friend....would be wrong. If you’re on mobile device I apologize in advance, you’re going to fall in love with ‘squints’ more than Wendy Peffercorn.

Scenario A

Louisville wins all three remaining ACC games

Result: Louisville goes to ACC Championship at 7-1

Scenario B

Louisville beats Virginia Tech, but loses to Virginia or Miami (screen shows Miami). UNC wins out, both finish at 6-2

Tiebreaker scenario comes into play for UNC and Louisville.

1. Head-to-head: N/A

2. Win-percentage versus all common opponents: Common Opponents include Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, and Miami. In this scenario both would finish with a 4-2 record against those six common opponents.

3. Win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish: In my hypothetical Duke, Georgia Tech, and Miami all finish ACC play at 5-3. UNC is 2-1 against that group, Louisville is 2-1 against that group. Next would be NC State (both 1-0), and then Pittsburgh. With Louisville losing to Pitt and UNC beating Pitt. UNC would get the bid.

4. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents. Note: If Pitt and Virginia were to tie with 2 or 3 ACC wins and we move on to this tiebreaker, the Cards appear to have slight edge in opponent win percentage but so many games left to play manipulates this number a fair amount.

Result: UNC wins tiebreaker and goes to ACC Championship at 6-2

Scenario C

Louisville beats Virginia Tech, but loses to Virginia or Miami (screen shows Miami). UNC wins out, Georgia Tech wins out, all three finish at 6-2

Tiebreaker scenario comes into play for UNC, Georgia Tech, and Louisville.

1. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents: N/A

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams: None of the three defeated both of the other teams. Georgia Tech (1-1), UNC (0-1), Louisville (1-0)

3. Win-percentage versus all common opponents: Common Opponents among all three include Virginia and Miami. In this scenario Georgia Tech finished 2-0, UNC 1-1, Louisville 1-1.

Result: Georgia Tech wins tiebreaker and goes to ACC Championship at 6-2

Scenario D

Louisville loses to Virginia Tech, but beats Virginia and Miami. UNC wins out, both finish at 6-2

Tiebreaker scenario comes into play for UNC and Louisville. (Note: Va Tech would need to lose third game)

1. Head-to-head: N/A

2. Win-percentage versus all common opponents: Common Opponents include Georgia Tech, NC State, Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia, and Miami. In this scenario UNC would finish 4-2, but Louisville would finish 5-1.

Result: Louisville wins tiebreaker and goes to ACC Championship at 6-2

Scenario E

Louisville loses to Virginia Tech, but beats Virginia and Miami. UNC wins out, Georgia Tech wins out, all three finish at 6-2.

Tiebreaker scenario comes into play for UNC, Georgia Tech, and Louisville.

1. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents: N/A

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams: None of the three defeated both of the other teams. Georgia Tech (1-1), UNC (0-1), Louisville (1-0)

3. Win-percentage versus all common opponents: Common Opponents among all three include Virginia and Miami. In this scenario Georgia Tech finished 2-0, UNC 1-1, Louisville 2-0. UNC eliminated.

4. Win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish: Since both 2-0 against Virginia and Miami this becomes null.

5. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents: In my hypothetical Louisville has advantage (50% vs 39%) as Georgia Tech plays Wake, Syracuse, and Clemson, all dwelling near bottom of standings. But this could change dramatically in next few weeks.

Result: Louisville wins tiebreaker and goes to ACC Championship at 6-2

Scenario F

Louisville beats Virginia Tech and Virginia but loses to Miami. UNC wins out, Miami wins out, all three finish at 6-2.

Tiebreaker scenario comes into play for UNC, Miami, and Louisville.

1. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents: N/A

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams: None of the three defeated both of the other teams. Miami (1-1), UNC (1-0), Louisville (0-1)

3. Win-percentage versus all common opponents: Common Opponents among all three include Georgia Tech, Virginia, and NC State. In this scenario Miami finished (2-1), UNC finished 1-2, and Louisville 3-0.

Result: Louisville wins tiebreaker and goes to ACC Championship at 6-2

Scenario G

Louisville loses to Virginia Tech and beats Virginia and Miami. UNC wins out, Virginia Tech drops one to NC State, all three finish at 6-2.

Tiebreaker scenario comes into play for UNC, Virginia Tech, and Louisville.

1. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents: N/A

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams: None of the three defeated both of the other teams. Virginia Tech (1-0), UNC (0-0), Louisville (0-1)

3. Win-percentage versus all common opponents: Common Opponents among all three include Pittsburgh, Virginia, and NC State. In this scenario Virginia Tech finished 2-1, UNC finished 2-1, and Louisville 2-1. (Note: If Va Tech were to lose to BC instead of NC State they finish 3-0 in this pool and get nod)

4. Win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish: Lots to play but hypothetical has NC State finishing ahead of Pitt and Virginia. UNC and Louisville both beat NC State, Va Tech did not, Va Tech eliminated. Next in order of finish is likely Pitt, since UNC beat Pitt and Louisville did not.....

Result: UNC wins tiebreaker and goes to ACC Championship at 6-2

Scenario H

Louisville beats Virginia Tech and Virginia and loses to Miami. UNC wins out, Virginia Tech wins out after Louisville, all three finish at 6-2.

Tiebreaker scenario comes into play for UNC, Virginia Tech, and Louisville.

1. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents: N/A

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams: None of the three defeated both of the other teams. Virginia Tech (0-1), UNC (0-0), Louisville (1-0)

3. Win-percentage versus all common opponents: Common Opponents among all three include Pittsburgh, Virginia, and NC State. In this scenario Virginia Tech finished 3-0, UNC finished 2-1, and Louisville 2-1.

Result: Virginia Tech wins tiebreaker and goes to ACC Championship at 6-2

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There are approximately 73 other scenarios (give or take) which could play out but I tried to include those most likely to happen. I’m also banking on my interpretation of the rules listed, we all know the ACC officials have been known to take their own path at times. Without stretching too far you can see four different teams going to Charlotte in the eight scenarios above, and I could find another one to get Duke in I’m sure. The good news of course in all this is still that if Cards win all three they’re in and nothing else matters. Ironically if the Cards were to drop one of the last two games (UVA/Miami) they are both in the pool of common opponents for them and UNC and those may be more likely to knock the Cards out than a Virginia Tech loss. Of course a Virginia Tech loss also opens door for them to steal bid due to head to head. There is a very real scenario where the Louisville/Miami game becomes a play-in, and frankly, I’d just assume avoid those if possible. Each week the picture gets a bit more clear, but the point to not overlook is this....Cards are not just in the running, but in control of an ACC Championship appearance in the month of November for the first time ever. Soak it up.