Louisville Bowl Projections After Week 8

I thought losing to Pitt was going to completely ruin the two weeks following, but the more I think about coming out of the bye week, ranked in the Top-20, sitting at 6-1, with a Top-10 win over Notre Dame, and in the thick of a conference title race, in Jeff Brohm’s first season back home… I’m finding it a lot easier to get over.

The Cards have a huge test tomorrow that will set the tone and expectations for the rest of the season, but until that happens let’s see what the computers and nerds think.

Starting with Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, since the Pitt loss and with another weekend of college football under our belts, there’s been some shifting around.

With the loss to Pitt the Cards’ chances of winning 10 or more games took a hit and are now projected by SP+ to win 9. With Virginia and Virginia Tech no longer looking like abject disasters after big wins over North Carolina and Syracuse, respectviely, their rankings have improved and Louisville’s chances of victory against them have dropped 6- and 9- percentage points. Take care of those guys and you’re looking at three tossups that will make or break this season.

Over at ESPN’s FPI, the Cards rose from #27 to #21 and the projected record for Cards improved from 9.2-3.1 to 10.3-2.1. And here’s how FPI projects the Cardinals’ chances winning each of their remaining games:

#20 Duke - 53.4% (63.4% last week)

Virginia Tech - 78.3% (85.2%)

Virginia - 86.9% (92.4%)

Miami - 33.4% (38%%)

Kentucky - 68.2% (70.1%)

Taking some hits across the board here, but the one positive is FPI continues to despise Kentucky.

Now for the fun stuff…

ESPN:

Capital One Orange Bowl (Bonagura) - Louisville vs. Ohio State

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Jan. 1, 4 P.M., ESPN

Capital One Orange Bowl (Schlabach) - Louisville vs. Ohio State

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Jan. 1, 4 P.M., ESPN

Action Network (Brett McMurphy):

Capital One Orange Bowl - Louisville vs. Ohio State

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Jan. 1, 4 P.M., ESPN

CBS (Jerry Palm):

Capital One Orange Bowl - Louisville vs. Ohio State

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Jan. 1, 4 P.M., ESPN

College Football News:

Holiday Bowl – Louisville vs. Utah

Petco Park, San Diego, California

Dec. 27, 8PM., Fox

247 Sports:

Capital One Orange Bowl - Louisville vs. Penn State

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Jan. 1, 4 P.M., ESPN

Athlon:

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – Louisville vs. Ole Miss

TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Dec. 29, 12:00PM. ESPN

College Football Network:

Pop-Tarts Bowl – Louisville vs. Kansas State

Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

Dec. 28, 5:45PM. ESPN

Yahoo!

Capital One Orange Bowl - Louisville vs. Ohio State

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Jan. 1, 4 P.M., ESPN

Total Tally: Orange Bowl (6), Pop-Tarts Bowl, Gator Bowl, Holiday Bowl

I LIKE THESE BOWL PROJECTIONS LET’S KEEP THEM THIS WAY.