Game Day: Louisville vs. NC State

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (6-4, 3-4) vs. NC STATE WOLFPACK (7-3, 3-3)

Game Time: 3:30 p.m.

Location: Cardinal Stadium: Louisville, Ky.

Television: Regional Sports Networks (Bally Sports South in Louisville)

Announcers: Evan Lepler (play-by-play), Roddy Jones (analyst) and Rebecca Fiorentino (sideline)

Favorite: Louisville by 4

All-Time Series: Louisville leads, 7-4

Last Meeting: NC State won 28-13 on 10/30/2021 in Raleigh

Series History:

Statistics:

Louisville Uniforms:

Louisville Depth Chart:

Game Day Guide:

Relevant Videos:

Excitement Level: 6.9

Certainly a step down from last week, but I’m still far more excited about this game than I would have guessed a month ago.

Pregame Meal: No idea

The chicken wing streak is over.

Bold Prediction: The game is scoreless after one quarter

Don’t ask me how I know, but this is happening.

Rance Conner Interception Alert Level: Apricot (bad)

The alert level is losing faith in late season resurgence.

Predicted Star of the Game: Marshon Ford

Brock Domann’s favorite target shines on Senior Day.

About NC State:

via Keith Wynne

OFFENSE

Dave Doeren entered the 2022 season with high hopes of building on one of the best seasons in Wolfpack history in 2021. Much of that hinged on the right arm of his star quarterback, Devin Leary. However, the offense never reached its potential and Devin Leary was lost for the season a few weeks ago. But, Doeren has been able to keep winning with MJ Morris taking over and playing like anything but a true freshman.

Morris has been the story of this offense over the last few weeks after taking over during the Virginia Tech game three weeks ago. He has seven touchdown passes during that span and only one interception. He plays with a type of calm that you don’t expect from a freshman who was thrust into the starting role. He is a very accurate passer at al levels and he stands in the pocket well while things develop down the field.

Morris can also extend plays with his legs while also being a solid runner on designed draws and in the read option game. I won’t say that he’s a major threat to take over a game with his running ability but you do have to account for his legs. One area that bodes well for Louisville is that he fumbled three times last week in their upset loss to Boston College. BC truly made him look like a freshman and you have to hope that UofL can do the same.

The State running game is really frustrating to me as a college football fan. They have the talent but they just don’t really seem to want to commit to running the football. Jordan Houston has waited his turn to be the guy and he’s been underutilized in my opinion. Houston is a violent runner with great burst in the open field. He can also catch the ball well out of the backfield. He’s a guy that they have to tackle so they can avoid the issue they had last week where even short runs went for 4-5 yards because they didn’t get guys to the ground when they had the chance.

Demie Sumo-Karngbaye is the running back that worries me for the Wolfpack. “Sumo” ran wild against East Carolina in the opener and I knew he would be a problem for UofL. He runs very hard and he hits top speed very quickly when he sees a lane. While he hasn’t played much recently due to injury, I always assume players will get healthy when they play the Cards. Keep an eye on him if he does play. The Cards will have to get to him before he gets going so that he doesn’t break big runs on them. Michael Allen also looked impressive in limited minutes. A very fast back at their disposal.

The key to the offense taking a step back has been the production of the receivers, in my opinion. State lost Emeka Emezie and they just haven’t had a guy who could step up and take the attention off of others to help the group be more well-rounded. Thayer Thomas is an excellent slot receiver for the Wolfpack but he has been the only consistent player in the passing game. They have really missed that outside threat who can get you first downs and be a threat down the sideline. Thomas is a handful and UofL will have to have a plan to contain him. He has been a key for Morris during this run and he is so reliable in big moments.

Devin Carter is the big outside threat for the Pack and he can use his great size to his advantage. Carter has good speed but he uses his 6-3/215 frame to muscle his way open on short routes and he can use his catch radius to make catches in tight coverage. Keyon Lesane has also been impressive in the games I’ve watched. He is mostly used on intermediate throws but he is an athletic player who can turn a short gain into a big one. Darryl Jones is the other top receiver on the team and he has the size and experience to make plays. The Wolfpack has 20 touchdown passes on the season with 13 different receivers logging a touchdown. They can really spread it around even though they rely on Thomas to be the main target.

NC State has been very good up front for years now but this offensive line hasn’t been up to the standard they have built. They’ve shuffled some guys around at spots but outside of their outstanding center, Grant Gibson, they haven’t been all that great. The right side of the line seems to have the most issues, so one would hope that UofL can exploit it.

DEFENSE

The NC State defense led the charge last season when the Wolfpack won nine games. The expectation was that this group would help to get the program over the hump and get to double-digit wins. This veteran group has been able to deliver for the most part with a litany of players that I’ve been writing about in this space for years. Tony Gibson was named to the Broyles Award list this week, and this group that he leads has helped him earn that accolade.

State runs a 3-3-5 with a large defensive line that does a great job of eating up blocks and being disruptive so that their linebackers can run free and make plays. Corey Durden is the man in the middle and the Florida State transfer is relentless. He and C.J. Clark are forces against the run. Devin Vann rounds out the group and he is coming off a very good game against Boston College. It goes without saying that UofL’s offensive line must handle this group if they expect to do anything on offense this weekend.

The Wolfpack finished the BC game with 13 TFLs, 12 QBHs, and 5 sacks. Nearly all of those plays were made by their linebackers. Drake Thomas, Peyton Wilson, and Isaiah Moore are flat-out outstanding. Wilson is an NFL talent while Moore and Thomas are extremely high-level college players that could definitely play at the next level. Thomas is the most productive of the group and he had an All-American type of game last season against the Cards. He contained Malik Cunningham by himself and you can make the argument that he was the main reason State got the win.

Moore is the steady veteran in the middle of the defense but he can really get after it between the tackles. He beats blocks with his strength. He knows how to read plays to fill his gaps. He can also rush the passer well. But he doesn’t have the best foot speed and can be exploited in certain situations.

Wilson is a prototype linebacker from a size and speed standpoint. He is 6-4/240 and he covers a lot of ground in a short amount of time. Injuries have been an issue for him but he can still really play and he will be a factor against the run. There aren’t many flaws with this group but I do think that Marshon Ford could have some success if NC State puts these guys in man coverage. They’re not bad in this area, but Ford is just better.

The secondary is a mixed group of veterans and young players. The cornerbacks have been good this season with Aydan White making a lot of plays on the ball as a second-year player. Shyhiem Battle has been a mainstay on the opposite side while Derrek Pitts is a part-time starter in the three-man rotation. This group has great size and they are very physical in coverage. They will challenge UofL’s short passing game that looks to use Tyler Hudson’s size as an advantage.

Tanner Ingle is the Perry Ellis of football to me as I feel like I’ve been writing about him for a decade. The undersized safety does a bit of everything for the Wolfpack and he does all of it fairly well. Ingle will play in the box as an addition for run support and he will line up outside in man coverage against slot receivers. He is a key player for this defense with the experience that he brings.

The other safety spot is manned by Cyrus Fagan who transferred in from FSU last season. He is another veteran player on this defense who can make plays. Tyler Baker-Williams has been a very productive player for the Pack this year though he has missed some time. At one point, PFF rated him as the best defensive back in the country and he has been very strong as a slot corner even though he is a fairly big player with the build of a safety. UofL is banged up at wide receiver but this group has had a few rough moments this season. Hopefully, UofL can find a way to get the passing game going.

Notable:

—This will be the first time Louisville has played host to NC State in the Scott Satterfield era. The Cardinals won in Raleigh in 2019 and lost there in 2021. The two teams did not meet in the COVID-shortened season of 2020.

—Louisville leads the all-time series with NC State, 7-4, but the Wolfpack have won three of the last four meetings.

—Louisville is 59-43-1 all-time on Senior Day. The Cards have won six of their last nine final home games of seasons.

—Louisville is 4-0 in Senior Day games against ACC opponents.

—NC State has intercepted 16 passes in 2022 - a mark that leads the ACC and ranks third in the FBS.

—The Louisville defense is No. 3 nationally and second in the ACC with 37 sacks. U of L’s 14 interceptions are No. 6 nationally and second in the ACC behind only NC State’s 16.

—Louisville enters its final conference game of the season with a 36-36 overall record in ACC play since joining the league in 2014.

—The Cardinals are looking to close out their home schedule at 5-1, which would be their best mark since going 5-1 in 2016.

—NC State leads the ACC in rush defense, interceptions, scoring defense and pass efficiency defense. It’s second in the league in 3rd-down conversion defense, trailing only Louisville.

—NC State kicker Christopher Dunn is one of just three kickers in Division I history to have ever made 20 or more FGs in a season without missing (21 of 21: Cairo Santos of Tulane, 2012, 21-of-21; Marc Primanti of NC State, 1996 20-of-20).

—NC State has intercepted multiple passes in seven of its 10 games so far this season. The Wolfpack have not had a game with just one interception.

—Louisville is 4-1 all-time in home games against NC State.

—The last five games in this series have all been decided by two touchdowns or more.

—Louisville is 18-62-1 all-time against ranked opponents.

—Since joining the league in 2014, the Cards are 3-21 against teams in the Associated Press Top 25.

—Under head coach Scott Satterfield, Louisville is 2-7 against ranked opponents.

—A win over NC State would give Louisville its first season with multiple wins over top 25 opponents since 2006.

—Louisville is 16-8 at home under head coach Scott Satterfield.

—Louisville is a 4-point favorite in this game according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cards are 6-4 against the spread this season and 4-2 straight up as a favorite.

—Louisville is 159-173-52 all-time during the month of November, with Scott Satterfield posting a 6-7 mark in his first three seasons during the calendar’s 11th month.

—Over Scott Satterfield’s first four seasons at Louisville, 15 of his 45 games have been decided by one possession or less. The Cardinals are 5-10 in those games. Louisville is 2-7 under Satterfield in games decided by five points or fewer.

—Louisville is 1-17 under Scott Satterfield when trailing going into the fourth quarter. Their lone victory came last month when they outscored Pitt 17-0 in the fourth quarter on their way to a 24-10 win over the Panthers.

—Neither Louisville nor NC State has lost consecutive games this season. Both teams lost last week.

—Louisville is 21-6 when leading after three quarters under Satterfield.

—Under Scott Satterfield, Louisville is 18-4 when winning the turnover battle, and just 3-17 when losing it. The Cardinals have gone against that trend in their last two games, losing the turnover battle but winning the game against James Madison two weeks ago, and then doing the reverse last Saturday against Clemson.

—The Cards have turned the football over nine times in their four losses this season and seven times in their six victories.

—Louisville is 8-0 under Scott Satterfield when scoring 40-49 points, and 3-0 when scoring 50 or more.

—Louisville is 1-10 under Scott Satterfield when being held to 21 points or fewer, with their lone win coming earlier this season in a 20-14 triumph over UCF.

—Louisville is currently riding a consecutive game scoring streak that spans 284 games dating back to a 31-0 loss to Florida State during the 2000 season. The streak ranks as the second longest in the ACC behind only Virginia Tech, and the 10th-longest nationally.

—Louisville is 197-14 all-time when scoring 35 or more points in a game. The Cards are also 6-121 all-time when allowing opponents to score 40 or more points.

Quotable:

—“It’s a good group. It’s kind of odd because I feel like there’s three different classes probably within this class. ... I got a special place in my heart for those guys because they’ve been through so much in the period of time that they’ve been here, as much as any class has probably ever been through anything. They’ve been through coaching changes, they’ve been through the COVID situation for two years, getting another year (of eligibility), just a lot of stuff that’s crazy, that has never happened really.” —Scott Satterfield

—“First of all, I want to thank the Louisville community and fanbase for believing in me. I lot of coaches have been here, and this is really going to be emotional for me. Just starting as a freshman playing special teams, and just going through a whole bunch of coaching changes. It was just a lot, but I’m really thankful for for everything that Louisville has done for me.” —Yasir Abdullah

—“We still have opportunities in front of us that allow us to have, albeit not the season we thought at the beginning with what we’ve dealt with, a great season here still. The guys all understand that. It’s just being honest with them, not sugarcoating anything, letting them talk as well and say how they feel.” —NC State head coach Dave Doeren

“[They’re] probably the best linebacker combination in the country with their three linebackers. Extremely productive linebackers and they do everything from interceptions to sacks to tackles for loss. They’re running all over the field. Very impressed by their linebackers.” —Scott Satterfield

—“Brock has done a great job when he’s been called upon in games, whether he’s come in the middle of the game or when he started the Virginia game. We’re able to keep the same game plan, same thoughts, same ideas. He’s different than Malik, but he’s still does a great job of running our offense and and everything that we ask him to do. Even as a runner.” —Lance Taylor

—“We look forward to another talented team and a chance to compete, and a road game at that. I look forward to that opportunity with our players with these two games. We’ve got a lot on our plate.” —NC State head coach Dave Doeren

—“I want them to have great memories when they leave Louisville and part of that is to go out there and win these games.” —Scott Satterfield

Card Chronicle Prediction: Louisville 23, NC State 20

Go Cards.