Louisville Bowl Projections After Week 7

Normally throughout the season you all see me posting weekly updates about Louisville’s bowl projections. Unfortunately I haven’t been able to do one yet this season because….you know.

HOWEVER!

After receiving virtually no bowl projections since the Boston College loss, including after the Virginia win, Louisville somehow received some bowl projections this week!

But it’s going to take a Herculean effort from Scott Satterfield and Co. to reach bowl eligibility as they stare down one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country on the back half of their schedule.

Not only do the Cards face the highest combined opponent winning percentage in their remaining six games, but four of the six are currently ranked in the AP Top 25. And that’s not to mention James Madison, who just got knocked out of the Top 25 this past weekend.

It’s not hard to see that this is going to be a challenge, and the numbers don’t disagree either. ESPN’s FPI projects Louisville to finish with a 5.8-6.2 record, which equates to roughly a 61% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. And here’s how FPI projects Louisville’s chances winning each of their remaining games:

Pittsburgh - 59.5% chance to win

#13 Wake Forest - 51.6%

James Madison - 67.9%

#5 Clemson - 12.9%

#23 N.C. State - 54%

#19 Kentucky - 36.4%

So to get to bowl eligibility Louisville has to win three more games. Three of those six are genuine toss-up games, James Madison isn’t exactly an easy win, and the Cards should be considerable underdogs against Clemson and Kentucky.

There’s certainly a path to six on paper, and the computers and prognosticators don’t disagree, but how and if Scott Satterfield can navigate the minefield ahead is an entirely different story.

But for now let’s throw caution to the wind, forget about what total Satterfield needs to hit to save his job, and start dreaming about which city we’ll be vacationing in around the holidays.

ESPN:

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl (Bonagura) – Louisville vs. Missouri

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Dec. 23, 6:30PM, ESPN

(Schlabach) - n/a

Action Network (Brett McMurphy):

Military Bowl Presented by Peraton – Louisville vs. Cincinnati

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 28, 2:00PM, ESPN

Yahoo!:

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Oregon State

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 30, 2:00PM, CBS

Pro Football Network:

Quick Lane Bowl – Louisville vs. Eastern Michigan

Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

Dec. 26, 2:30PM, ESPN

Bleacher Report:

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl – Louisville vs. Memphis

Protective Life Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama

Dec. 27, TBD, ESPN

College Sports Madness:

Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Louisville vs. Purdue

Bank of America, Charlotte, North Carolina

Dec. 30, 12:00PM, ESPN

CBS (Jerry Palm):

Louisville Not Projected.

USA Today:

Louisville Not Projected

College Football News:

Louisville Not Projected

247 Sports:

Louisville Not Projected

Athlon:

Louisville Not Projected

Sporting News:

Louisville Not Projected

Bleacher Report:

Louisville Not Projected.

So six major outlets say we’re going bowling, while seven say we’re not. Sounds about right.

I have no idea what’s going to happen Saturday or the rest of this season, but one thing I do know is that I’d love nothing more than to spend the day after Christmas in Detroit watching the Cards take on a MAC team.