Louisville Bowl Projections After Week 9

Who knows?

By ConorShea@CurlyShea Nov 4, 2021, 11:30am EDT

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This week’s Card Chronicle Bowl Projections Digest (CCBPD) is running on a delayed schedule as many prognosticators were waiting for the first College Football Playoff rankings to drop on Tuesday night before predicting the future.

Unfortunately, since we last spoke the Cards dropped a weird game to N.C. State where the Cards yet again outgained their opponent but still walked away with another number in the loss column. Fortunately, the nerds and computers that predict bowl games and win totals didn’t see UofL leaving Raleigh with a win, so not too much has changed.

As always, we begin with my favorite nerd, Mr. Bill Connelly. Connelly’s SP+ analytics computer was once again with impressed with Louisville’s defense, as the unit was promoted for a second week in a row from #77 to #71. Unfortunately, that was the only good news as the team’s overall ranking slipped from #35 to #41 (still ahead of #45 Kentucky, *wink*).

Louisville also slipped a little in SP+’s Win Total Projections as the machine now gives the Cards a SLIGHTLY worse chance of going 7-5 (31%) than 6-6 (38%). Here’s the full picture:

ESPN’s FPI is almost in perfect agreement with SP+ this week, projecting the Cards to finish with a 6-6 record (actually 6.2-5.8, identical to SP+). After a one week hiatus the FPI is once again giving UofL a favorable chance of beating Kentucky (52%). Here’s the rest of win probabilities FPI gives for Louisville: