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Louisville Bowl Projections After Week 11

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One more win to go

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Military Bowl - Navy v Pittsburgh Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

I apologize for the Card Chronicle Bowl Projections Digest’s (CCBPD) absence last week as I honestly just wasn’t mentally prepared for all the “we should be focusing on winning games rather than bowl games” comments following the Clemson loss. But after a dominant 41-3 victory over Syracuse and an awesome Lamar Day, I’m in better spirits, as I hope you all are, and would like to discuss potentially fun times on the horizon.

One positive about the Clemson loss is that many of the computers and prognosticators had us beating the Tigers in the first place, so not much had changed in terms of our projections last week. And with the Cards beating a decent Syracuse team in impressive fashion to pull themselves within one win away from bowl eligibility, the computers and nerds are feeling pretty bullish about the Cards playing some extra ball this holiday season.

As always, we begin with my favorite nerd, Mr. Bill Connelly. Connelly’s SP+ analytics computer has Louisville’s defense ranked 74th overall, and the offense ranked 27th overall. The Cards total team ranking currently sits at 46th in the country, ahead of 97th-ranked Duke and 51st-ranked Kentucky (*wink*).

Where SP+ feels really good about Louisville is with its Win Total Projections as SP+ now gives Louisville a 91.8% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. The computer also gives the Cards a 46% chance of going 7-5 and a 45% chance of finishing 6-6. Here’s the full picture:

ESPN’s FPI also gives Louisville about a dead-even chance of going 6-6 or 7-5, as it projects 6.5 wins for the Cards. However, FPI gives the Cardinals a better chance of going bowling than SP+ did, with a 94.3% chance. Lastly, the FPI ranks Louisville 38th overall, just one spot ahead of the Kentucky Wildcats (*wink*),and gives the Cards a 50.7% chance of winning out.

Now for the fun stuff…

ESPN:

Military Bowl Presented by Peraton (Bonagura) Louisville vs. SMU

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, 2:30PM, ESPN

Military Bowl Presented by Peraton (Schlabach) Louisville vs. East Carolina

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, 2:30PM, ESPN

Action Network (Brett McMurphy):

Wasabi Fenway Bowl – Louisville vs. SMU

Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts

Dec. 29, 11AM, ESPN

CBS (Jerry Palm):

Wasabi Fenway Bowl – Louisville vs. East Carolina

Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts

Dec. 29, 11AM, ESPN

Yahoo!:

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl Louisville vs. Washington

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 31, 12:30PM, ESPN

USA Today:

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Louisville vs. UAB

Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana

Dec. 18, 3:30PM, ABC

College Football News:

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl Louisville vs. Washington

Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

Dec. 31, 12:30PM, ESPN

247 Sports:

Military Bowl Presented by Peraton Louisville vs. Houston

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, 2:30PM, ESPN

Athlon:

Military Bowl Presented by Peraton Louisville vs. ECU

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

Dec. 27, 2:30PM, ESPN

Pro Football Network:

Duke’s Mayo Bowl Louisville vs. Missouri

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

Dec. 30, 11:30AM, ESPN

Sporting News:

New Era Pinstripe Bowl Louisville vs. Rutgers

Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

Dec. 29, 2:15PM. ESPN

Bleacher Report:

Louisville Not Projected.

Tally: Military (4), Fenway (2), Sun (2), Independence (1), Mayo (1), Pinstripe (1)

While the Military Bowl is the favorite at this point, Fenway and Sun Bowls are close behind. However, keep an eye on the dark horse Indpendence Bowl as Louisville Football’s all-time points scorer, Sir Arthur Carmody, is a former chairman of the bowl.

5 down. One to go.