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I apologize for the Card Chronicle Bowl Projections Digest’s (CCBPD) absence last week as I honestly just wasn’t mentally prepared for all the “we should be focusing on winning games rather than bowl games” comments following the Clemson loss. But after a dominant 41-3 victory over Syracuse and an awesome Lamar Day, I’m in better spirits, as I hope you all are, and would like to discuss potentially fun times on the horizon.
One positive about the Clemson loss is that many of the computers and prognosticators had us beating the Tigers in the first place, so not much had changed in terms of our projections last week. And with the Cards beating a decent Syracuse team in impressive fashion to pull themselves within one win away from bowl eligibility, the computers and nerds are feeling pretty bullish about the Cards playing some extra ball this holiday season.
As always, we begin with my favorite nerd, Mr. Bill Connelly. Connelly’s SP+ analytics computer has Louisville’s defense ranked 74th overall, and the offense ranked 27th overall. The Cards total team ranking currently sits at 46th in the country, ahead of 97th-ranked Duke and 51st-ranked Kentucky (*wink*).
Where SP+ feels really good about Louisville is with its Win Total Projections as SP+ now gives Louisville a 91.8% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. The computer also gives the Cards a 46% chance of going 7-5 and a 45% chance of finishing 6-6. Here’s the full picture:
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ESPN’s FPI also gives Louisville about a dead-even chance of going 6-6 or 7-5, as it projects 6.5 wins for the Cards. However, FPI gives the Cardinals a better chance of going bowling than SP+ did, with a 94.3% chance. Lastly, the FPI ranks Louisville 38th overall, just one spot ahead of the Kentucky Wildcats (*wink*),and gives the Cards a 50.7% chance of winning out.
Now for the fun stuff…
ESPN:
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton (Bonagura) – Louisville vs. SMU
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, 2:30PM, ESPN
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton (Schlabach) – Louisville vs. East Carolina
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, 2:30PM, ESPN
Action Network (Brett McMurphy):
Wasabi Fenway Bowl – Louisville vs. SMU
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
Dec. 29, 11AM, ESPN
CBS (Jerry Palm):
Wasabi Fenway Bowl – Louisville vs. East Carolina
Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
Dec. 29, 11AM, ESPN
Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Washington
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31, 12:30PM, ESPN
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl – Louisville vs. UAB
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Dec. 18, 3:30PM, ABC
Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. Washington
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31, 12:30PM, ESPN
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton – Louisville vs. Houston
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, 2:30PM, ESPN
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton – Louisville vs. ECU
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, 2:30PM, ESPN
Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Louisville vs. Missouri
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Dec. 30, 11:30AM, ESPN
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Louisville vs. Rutgers
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
Dec. 29, 2:15PM. ESPN
Louisville Not Projected.
Tally: Military (4), Fenway (2), Sun (2), Independence (1), Mayo (1), Pinstripe (1)
While the Military Bowl is the favorite at this point, Fenway and Sun Bowls are close behind. However, keep an eye on the dark horse Indpendence Bowl as Louisville Football’s all-time points scorer, Sir Arthur Carmody, is a former chairman of the bowl.
5 down. One to go.