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The WynnedBag: Week Five

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I took the bye week off.....by accident.

Louisville v Miami Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

On Thursday I realized that I completely forgot to write the WynneBag for last week. I guess the bye week got me off my normal routine and my actual real job was a bit hectic. So I’m going to use the questions that were submitted after the Pitt game and just go with it.

As always, send your questions via Twitter (@keith_wynne), email (keithwynne2@gmail.com), or with Card Chronicle’s Facebook message.

Yes and no. Scott Satterfield says that they self scouted and they’re at 50-50 when it comes to their run-pass ratio. That’s better than I expected but I think the issue is probably deeper than that. Louisville may throw the ball on first down but what type of passing plays are they calling? I think UofL has to improve with their quick passing game.

Louisville called a quick screen against Pitt that Braden Smith took for 27 yards. why don’t we see more of that on early downs? They utilized slant routes at App State but we don’t see them often in this offense. If Louisville wants to use the pass as an extension of the running game on early downs, they have to use more quick throws.

UofL wont’ see a defensive front like we saw with Pitt but I do think that FSU will cause some similar issues. UofL has struggled with the fronts that have size and speed. They don’t seem to have an issue with teams that can only show you one of those things. Notre Dame has some talent on the edge but I’m not sure their inside guys move all that well. That was an issue for them in the game last year and I don’t know that it’s any better. FSU has Marvin Wilson and Corey Durden inside and they dominated last year.

Louisville’s line was awful against Pitt. I tend to think the vast majority of that awfulness was caused by Pitt. Scott Satterfield seems to think it was at least somewhat due to UofL just not playing well and doing things they would normally do. While I love how straightforward Satt is, I think he’s ignoring the fact that Pitt would’ve likely made a bunch of plays even if they were blocked properly. UofL would’ve likely won the game but we’d still have questions about the line.

But for a short answer to your first questions, I think UofL has faced two of the top 3-4 defenses on their schedule already.

Having had a week to watch more ACC teams I definitely think that UofL has a much tougher front end of the schedule than the back end. Pitt dropped their normal head scratcher to NC State but Miami looks to be legit. Notre Dame is what I expected them to be but Virginia, BC, Syracuse, Wake, and FSU all look like teams that UofL should be favored against or at least within a score of. Virginia Tech is still a wild card to me because I don’t know how good their offense really is. They also haven’t had a full team yet.

While I expected this team to go 9-2 this year, they still seem to be in good shape to go 8-3 or 7-4. I would love to see them get to 8 or more wins with a bowl game but I do think having a winning record with demonstrable improvements is the goal. If the defense improves and the offense gets on track and shows that they can execute the scheme, I think they’ll get wins and they’ll also show some positives for the future. Tie that in with improved recruiting and I think they’re in good shape to take a step forward in year three and four.

I think losses tend to cause more of a reaction than wins but I think a close win against Pitt would have still led people to question things. I don’t think that this staff has been here long enough to know anything for sure but I definitely don’t think they’re being outcoached. 2-10 wasn’t very long ago and I’ve pointed out plenty of times that this roster wasn’t very good when this staff took over. It’s still not where it needs to be and I think that’s something that gets lost a lot.

The issue this staff will deal with for the rest of this season is the fact that they did so well last year with this very average roster. It doesn’t leave much room for nuance because expectations were set high and it’s not very natural for people to adjust them. UofL shouldn’t have a .500 season this year but I don’t think that winning 7 games would or should be looked at as a bad thing.

I think that UofL can correct some of the issues we’ve seen this year but some of this just comes down to talent and they don’t have it in some spots. Louisville is playing five players right now that are or were walk-ons at some point. That doesn’t include Braden Smith who is a former walk-on at Mississippi State. They’re not playing these guys solely because they’re the best option. In some cases they’re the only option.

They might just have to play guys like Josh Minkins and Lovie Jenkins at Safety. Luke Kandra or Jackson Gregory may have to get a chance at Guard or Center. They just might have to give in and play the young guys. But I think it’s too early to say that after what they were able to do with this roster last season. Miami exploited an issue and it seemed to be fixed the next week when Pitt try to do the same. The offense has a chance to get things right against Georgia Tech. That will tell us a lot more.