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How Likely Are They to Succeed - Ranking the Fresh Crop of NFL Quarterbacks

CCNorseman over at the Daily Norseman (a SBNation property) has put together a great article and analysis on how the fresh crop of QB's are likely to do in the NFL. He takes a lot of factors into consideration, such as arm strength, good decisions, leadership, throwing on the run, accuracy, etc.

He ran the analysis two ways - one with negative factors in which he predicts the likelihood of failure and a second one in which he predicts the likelihood of success. He did it this way because in his historical analysis, came up with some factors common to both successful and failed quarterbacks and then merged them into a final predictive bracket. The predictions shouldn't surprise any of us, but it's still a very interesting read.

2014 Draft Class Bust Metric

Name

School

Bust Score

Blake Bortles

Central Florida

-23.5

Jimmy Garoppolo

Eastern Illinois

-22.5

Zach Mettenberger

LSU

-21.5

Johnny Manziel

Texas A&M

-19

Derek Carr

Fresno State

-16

AJ McCarron

Alabama

-13

David Fales

San Jose State

-13

Aaron Murray

Georgia

-12.5

Brett Smith

Wyoming

-8.5

Teddy Bridgewater

Louisville

-5

His metrics for Positive and Negative outcome are as follows -

Success Metric - Positive Traits Bust Metric - Negative Traits

1. Good pocket awareness, with ability to "step up"

7 points

1. Forces passes into coverage, or stares down receivers

-7 points

2. Smart and makes good decisions with the football

6 points

2. Lacks Accuracy

-6 points

3. Good arm strength

5 points

3. Poor mechanics or fundamentals

-6 points

4. Good leader and competitor

5 points

Bust Metric - False Positive Traits

5. Good vision, and can read NFL defenses

4 points

4. Good size and strength

-5 points

6. Good accuracy

4 points

5. Good leader and competitor

-5 points

7. Can throw on the run

4 points

6. Strong arm

-4 points

Note: Subtract point total for any traits listed as a negative

7. Quick release/delivery

-4 points

Success Metric Total Possible

35 points

Bust Metric Total Possible

-37 points

After completing the upside mathmatics, the final chart looks like this -

Name

School

Bust Score

Success Score

Combined Total Score

1. Teddy Bridgewater

Louisville

-5

23.5

18.5

2. Derek Carr

Fresno State

-16

20.5

4.5

3. AJ McCarron

Alabama

-13

15.5

2.5

4. Blake Bortles

Central Florida

-23.5

25.5

2

5. Johnny Manziel

Texas A&M

-19

17

-2

6. Aaron Murray

Georgia

-12.5

10.5

-2

7. David Fales

San Jose State

-13

9

-4

8. Brett Smith

Wyoming

-8.5

4.5

-4

9. Zach Mettenberger

LSU

-21.5

12.5

-9

10. Jimmy Garoppolo

Eastern Illinois

-22.5

12.5

-10

If you haven't had a chance to make it over to the Daily Norseman yet, take a peek sometime. They're (for the most part) pretty excited about Teddy joining the organization and I may very well end up dropping a paycheck over the next few months on some purple gear.

You can find the full article here - From Boom to Bust: Avoiding the Wrong Quarterback

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