Stats guru Nate Silver has updated his percentage chances for each remaining team to win the national championship, and has Louisville as the team second most likely to cut down the nets in Dallas. The Cards had the highest percentage chance to win it all before the tournament started.
Here's the data on each team in the Sweet 16:
Michigan State: 8.02%
Iowa State: 2.79%
You can check out all of the data at Silver's website, FiveThirtyEight.com.