FanPost

The Morning Line from 2 Weeks Out

I have been known to put a little money on the ponies. I have been spotted in the card room in the basement of a paddle-wheeler permanently docked across the river. I may have even dropped a few dimes on the cake wheel at Trinity's picnic, and by that I mean actual dimes.

One does not just win the cake wheel

Unless, of course, one covers the board, which is what happens after about 12 rounds of missing the winner by 1. This is also known as "buying a cake".

Over the years, I've learned that the boys in the smoky backrooms* of Vegas can catch the overall trends pretty well and watching the spread during our march through March this spring they had us pegged pretty effectively.

While the odds makers are good at predictions, there are always outliers that break out and present opportunities. That's why it's called "gambling" and not "hand Yoder wads of money". From a fan standpoint, I choose to see this not as a prediction of what WILL happen, but a predictor of the amount of hard work, persistent effort and focus that'll be required for us to climb to the top.

If it WERE legal to have a betting account online and if I WERE to have an account with such a business, here are some numbers that this hypothetical book may have posted.

*Smoky backroom = cubicle 4 in aisle 12 on floor 7 of building 4 in the Vegas Business Park.

Opening Weekend Spreads

Here's a few games of interest this weekend and the current spread

Mississippi / Vanderbilt 3 8/29/2013 21:15
South Carolina / North Carolina 11 8/29/2013 18:00
Central Florida / Akron 21.5 8/29/2013 19:00
Rutgers / Fresno State 10 8/29/2013 22:30
Texas Tech / SMU 5 8/30/2013 20:00
Ohio State / Buffalo 36.5 8/31/2013 12:00
Notre Dame / Temple 30 8/31/2013 15:30
Kentucky / Western Kentucky 4.5 8/31/2013 19:00
Georgia / Clemson 1.5 8/31/2013 20:00
LSU / TCU 4.5 8/31/2013 21:00
Louisville / Ohio 21 9/1/2013 15:30
Florida State / Pittsburgh 10.5 9/2/2013 20:00

Edit: Fixed dates - thanks to rickmbari for pointing it out

A nice coincidence - Georgia and Clemson playing each other opening weekend. One or the other will be knocked out of the title race right away.

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Odds of Winning the BCS National Championship

Alabama 250
Oregon 650
Ohio State 700
LSU 1300
Georgia 1400
Stanford 1500
Texas A&M 1500
Florida State 2000
South Carolina 2000
Field (Any other team) 2000
Louisville 2000
Clemson 2500
Florida 2500
Miami Florida 2500
Oklahoma State 3000
Texas 3000
Michigan 4000
Oklahoma 4000
Nebraska 5000
UCLA 5000
Wisconsin 5000
Notre Dame 5500
USC 6500
Boise State 6800
North Carolina 8000
TCU 8000
Oregon State 10000
Tennessee 10000
Rutgers 10000
Michigan State 12500
Mississippi State 12500
Arizona State 12500
Mississippi 12500
Arizona 15000
BYU 15000
Cincinnati 15000
Kansas State 15000
Pittsburgh 15000
Virginia Tech 15000
Washington 15000
Northwestern 15000
Arkansas 17500
Auburn 20000
Georgia Tech 20000
Iowa 20000
Missouri 25000
South Florida 25000
California 30000
West Virginia 30000
Baylor 30000
Boston College 50000
Utah 50000

Odds of Winning The American Conference

Louisville -160
Cincinnati 350
Rutgers 525
Central Florida 1000
U Conn 3000
SMU 2500
South Florida 3000
Houston 3500
Memphis 6500
Temple 8000

Over / Under: Regular Season Games Won

Ohio State 11
Oregon 11
Alabama 11
Louisville 10.5
Florida State 10
Boise State 10
Oklahoma State 9.5
South Carolina 9.5
Clemson 9.5
Georgia 9.5
Nebraska 9.5
Texas 9.5
Stanford 9.5
USC 9.5
Wisconsin 9
Notre Dame 9
North Carolina 9
Florida 9
LSU 9
Georgia Tech 8.5
Michigan 8.5
Virginia Tech 8.5
Oklahoma State 8.5
Oregon State 8.5
Miami Florida 8.5
Michigan State 8.5
Penn State 8
Baylor 8
Kansas State 8
TCU 8
Mississippi 8
Arizona State 7.5
Arizona State 7.5
Washington 7.5
North Carolina State 7
Auburn 7
Vanderbilt 7
UCLA 7
Rutgers 7
Missouri 6
Tennessee 6
West Virginia 6
Iowa 6
Mississippi State 6
Pittsburgh 6
Iowa State 5.5

And just for fun, let's throw in the current odds for winning the

2013/14 NCAA National Championship

Kentucky 320
Kansas 400
Duke 800
North Carolina 800
Ohio State 800
Louisville 900
Memphis 1200
Michigan State 1400
Arizona 1500
Oklahoma State 1500
The Field 1500
Colorado 2000
Florida 2000
Syracuse 2000
Creighton 2500
Indiana 3000
Marquette 3000
Minnesota 3000
North Carolina State 3000
Pittsburgh 3000
UCLA 3000
UNLV 3000
Connecticut 3000
Michigan 3500
Villanova 4000
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