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NCAA Tournament KenPom Championship Contenders Update.

As discussed here and here, only teams ranked in the top 20 in both Adjusted Offense (AdjO) and Adjusted Defense (AdjD) have won the championship in the past decade, as far as KenPom stats are available.


He's taken the liberty of highlighting tournament teams so you can easily check. And instead of the top 25, like the last couple posts, maybe we'll just use the official tournament 1-68 seedings

Rank   Team   KenPom (AdjO, AdjD)

  1. Louisville ( 15, 1 )
  2. Kansas ( 25, 5 )
  3. Indiana ( 1, 19 )
  4. Gonzaga ( 3, 14 )
  5. Miami (FL) ( 20, 22 )
  6. Duke ( 4, 25 )
  7. Georgetown ( 62, 4 )
  8. Ohio State ( 14, 6 )
  9. New Mexico ( 45, 11 )
  10. Florida ( 5, 2 )
  11. Michigan St. ( 24, 8 )
  12. Marquette ( 17, 50 )
  13. Michigan ( 2, 58 )
  14. Kansas St. ( 21, 64 )
  15. Saint Louis ( 58, 7 )
  16. Syracuse ( 16, 23 )
  17. Oklahoma St. ( 56, 9 )
  18. UNLV ( 99, 13 )
  19. Wisconsin ( 52, 3 )
  20. VCU ( 19, 43 )
  21. Arizona ( 18, 36 )
  22. Butler ( 60, 53 )
  23. Memphis ( 64, 26 )
  24. UCLA ( 38, 65 )
  25. Creighton ( 6, 78 )
  26. San Diego St. ( 76, 10 )
  27. Notre Dame ( 12, 90 )
  28. Illinois ( 47, 49 )
  29. North Carolina ( 27, 47 )
  30. Colorado St. ( 7, 98 )
  31. Pittsburgh ( 9, 17 )
  32. North Carolina St. ( 10, 105 )
  33. Missouri ( 13, 48 )
  34. Temple ( 124, 120 )
  35. Wichita St. ( 50, 30 )
  36. Colorado ( 85, 28 )
  37. Cincinnati ( 117, 15 )
  38. Villanova ( 94, 24 )
  39. Iowa St. ( 8, 121 )
  40. Oklahoma ( 36, 82 )
  41. Minnesota ( 26, 42 )
  42. California ( 86, 46 )
  43. Oregon ( 121, 16 )
  44. Belmont ( 42, 59 )
  45. Boise St. ( 30, 86 )
  46. St. Mary's (CA) ( 11, 68 )
  47. Ole Miss ( 28, 55 )
  48. Bucknell ( 95, 45 )
  49. La Salle ( 43, 83 )
  50. Middle Tenn. State ( 73, 20 )
  51. Akron ( 89, 33 )
  52. New Mexico St. ( 122, 74 )
  53. South Dakota St. ( 39, 209 )
  54. Montana ( 129, 175 )
  55. Davidson ( 40, 103 )
  56. Valparaiso ( 44, 106 )
  57. Northwestern St. ( 97, 194 )
  58. Harvard ( 83, 147 )
  59. FGCU ( 151, 117 )
  60. Pacific ( 104, 159 )
  61. Iona ( 22, 257 )
  62. Albany (NY) ( 170, 134 )
  63. Western Ky. ( 177, 182 )
  64. Southern U. ( 252, 100 )
  65. LIU Brooklyn ( 51, 319 )
  66. James Madison ( 224, 132 )
  67. N.C. A&T ( 317, 81 )
  68. Liberty ( 184, 303 )

And there you have it. The list has shrunk from previous ones.

Tournament Contenders: Louisville, Indiana, Gonzaga, Ohio St, Florida, and Pittsburgh.

Now I've heard some other sites saying something about being KenPom Top 25 in both categories. It's possible that they meant at the end of the season top 25, but after winning it all moved up into the top 20? Because when you examine KP history on his site, you don't see either category outside of the top 20 for past champions.

Just in case, extending to 25/25 adds: Kansas, Miami, Duke, Mich St, and Syracuse

When filling out your brackets, pick your Final 4 however you want. But your champion should be one of the bold teams above.

From the previous posts, that means Arizona fell completely off the map, as expected. So did Kentucky, after Noel's injury. Kansas, Duke, Mich St, and Syracuse slipped out of 20/20, but hung on in 25/25.

Miami is still lacking from previous checks, but inched closer, into the 25/25 category.

Michigan and Minnesota did not improve enough to get in the contenders list, even expanded to 25.

And finally Gonzaga made a huge leap in AdjD to get in contention.

Time to fill out those brackets!

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