One of the most common complaints I've heard from my fellow UofL fans about moving to the ACC in 2014 is that basketball is going to suffer immensely if it has to play a season with the remnants of what use to be the Big East (I'll refer to it as the To Be Announced conference from this point). The basic premise of the argument is that the loss of the Catholic schools combined with the addition of schools like Houston, SMU, and UCF will cause our RPI, SOS, and attendance. This lead me to ask the simple question of whether this view was actually true or not.

To answer this, I'll make two assumptions. First, I'll use the current RPI, Kempom, and Massey composite numbers for this season's version of the Big East and then compare it to the current RPI, Kempom, and Massey composite numbers for next season's version of the TBA conference. A lot can change in one season but because the 2013-2014 season hasn't been played yet, this is really the only way to make a comparison. Second, the conference will have 10 members for 2013-2014 so I'll assume that the TBA conference will schedule an 18 game, double round robin conference slate (i.e. every team plays every other team home and away).

So how do the numbers stack up between the two conferences?

*****3-12-13 numbers for Louisville's opponents in this season's version of the Big East*****

*****3-12-13 numbers for Louisville's opponents in next season's TBA conference*****

The bad news is that when you use this season's numbers to project next year's conference slate, things aren't exactly rosy. Even with repeat games against Memphis, UConn, Temple, and UC, the Cards are most likely going to take a massive hit in the quality of their conference play. That isn't all that surprising when you consider that 6 of the schools that finished in the top half of the conference this season won't be here next year.

The good news is that this doesn't spell absolute doom for UofL. First, UofL can alleviate the drop in conference quality by improving its OOC schedule. For example, UofL could schedule 1-and-done games against schools like Ohio (RPI: 74), Indiana St (RPI: 73), and Saint Mary's (RPI: 30) instead of Samford (RPI: 291), Miami(OH) (RPI: 265), and UMKC (RPI: 283). It isn't always possible to predict which OOC teams will be great before the season is even played, but coaching staffs generally have a pretty good idea of who can be expected to be decent RPI wise. Another possible fix is to set up one or two home-and-home series with some of the departing catholic schools (e.g. Marquette, Saint John's Nova, etc) or some of the bigger names in college hoops. Both of these options would help alleviate some of the drop in conference quality Louisville can expect in 2013-2014.

Second, we should all remember that UofL fans were packing basketball games long before the Big East. Louisville has ranked in the top 10 attendance every year since 1980. One year of a less-than-stellar conference slate isn't going to suddenly kill attendance or cause our fan base to stay home. Cardinals fans will keep packing the Yum Center just like they have done all this year.

Third and most importantly, UofL doesn't need a strong conference to succeed. UofL has 2 national titles, 9 final fours (6th all-time), 12 elite eights, and 38 NCAA tournament appearances (5th all-time) on its resume. Of those, only 1 final four, 3 elite eights, and 6 tournament appearances were earned as a Big East school. The bulk of our tradition was built in the Missouri Valley and Metro conferences respectively and while both of those conferences were good, neither was an elite level basketball conference. If UofL could build a top 10 all-time program in the MVC, Metro, and C-USA, it can survive a one year transition in the TBA conference.

So things probably aren't as bleak as some of our fans are making them out to be. Is it ideal? No. Is it what we want? Hell no. But we need to keep in mind that this will only be for a single season and we at least have a light at the end of the tunnel (ACC hoops) to help see us through next season.