I'll leave it to someone else to do the math on what the percentages are for this to happen, but here are the "facts" of the matter, along with my opinion on the likelihood of each thing happening:
1. Win all 3 remaining games to finish 11-1, with our best win being over a top 40 Houston club. This is likely to happen.
2. Move our computer ranking average to somewhere around 14-18. This depends on how some other teams do, but it's somewhere between possible and probable. It currently sits at 28, which gives us no points in the BCS formula. If our computer average moved to 25, and nothing else changed, our BCS ranking would currently be 17. A win over Houston will move our computer ranking up.
3. Fresno must lose. We likely can't jump them without this, given their standing in the human polls. I'm not confident that Fresno will lose any of their remaining games. Their toughest remaining game is at San Jose St. the Friday after Thanksgiving
4. NIU probably has to lose. I'm not confident that NIU will lose any of their remaining games. They play @ Toledo next Wednesday and they will likely play in the MAC championship game again and win that. We likely can't get close enough to them in the computers, given that they play one more game than us and will have two more wins than us if they finish unbeaten, even though we are ahead of them in the human polls and will likely remain so.
Also, no other Big 10/Big 12 teams can finish in the top 14, the reason being they would likely be selected before we would.
5. Oklahoma St. must lose at least once, preferably twice. They play @ Texas, and home vs. Baylor and Oklahoma. One loss is likely. Two are possible.
6. Oklahoma probably needs to lose once more. They have a home game vs. Iowa St, then back to back road games @ K-State and @ Oklahoma St. A loss is likely.
7. Texas must lose once more. They play Oklahoma St and Texas Tech at home, then play @ Baylor Dec. 7. A loss is likely.
8. Mich St. must lose to Nebraska. I would say there is a 50/50 chance here. Nebraska is assuming Mich St.'s traditional Big 10 Jeckyll and Hyde role, and Mich St. is getting it done with defense. The game is in Lincoln.
9. Nebraska/Mich St. must get to the Big 10 championship game and lose to Ohio St. Nebraska or Mich St. getting to the title game is all but a lock. Losing to a virtually untested Buckeye team is less certain, but probable.
I believe if all 9 of these things happen, the Cards will finish in the top 14 as the only potential remaining at-large selection, due to the rules of the BCS.
Other things that would potentially help us move up (or not get jumped) in the computers and the human polls:
UCF losing again (not likely based on schedule)
Wisconsin losing again (not likely)
UCLA losing again (likely)
LSU losing again (50/50, they play A&M next weekend)
Arizona St. losing again (likely).
A wildcard in all this
Clemson losing twice. It could happen, and it would likely leave the ACC with only one BCS-eligible team, which would create space for an extra at-large team, meaning Fresno and NIU wouldn't both have to lose in order for us to get into the top 14 and taken at-large. Clemson plays GaTech tonight in Death Valley and they finish the season @ South Carolina. Go Jackets.