As fans we are subject to swings of emotion when our team wins or loses. Our team can go from a Final Four contender to a Big East pretender in the span of three games. But it seems to me that this team is almost the same today as it was near the start of the conference play.

We can play D, Gorgi can change shots, Chane can rebound, we can’t shoot super well, etc. Outside of a big loss (Providence) and a big win (Uconn) we haven’t had a break out game that really changed the dynamic of the team. Perhaps Rick’s altering the starting lineup will being change he wants, but that remains to be seen.

With this steadiness I wanted to try to predict the success of the team.

I organized UofL ‘s opponents into tiers to calibrate how the Cards faired against them. I used NCAA at large bid chances as a barometer for middle and above, then top 25 rankings. Playing UK and Memphis non-conference, then playing in such a large conference assists greatly in this.

My results:

Top Tier: 0-3 UK, Cuse

High End: 0-3 G-Town, Marquette, ND

Middle: 7-2 Vandy, Butler, St Johns, Memphis, LBSU, UConn, WVU, Cincinnati, USF

Lower: 11-1 IUPUI, Ohio, Ark St, WKU, Pitt, Seton Hall, Rutgers, CofC, Nova, Providence, Fairleigh

Depaul: 2 - 0 Depaul

As much as a team’s record can be an indicator of future success, this can be used to show the “cap” of the Cardinals ability. They have repeatedly shown that they cannot defeat the best and the best of the best.

My view is that this team, with a good seed, can make it to the sweet sixteen, but no further. Having a worse seed (6,7,8) things get sticky real quick as we would playing middle to high end teams in the first and second round.