FanPost

Who's Over-/Under- Seeded?


My love for the NCAA tournament is exceeded only by the ridiculous amounts of free time I have. In trying to fill out a bracket, I created a spreedsheet with all the teams and relevant computer rankings (i.e., Pomeroy Rankings, Sagarin Rankings, and RPI rankings). Then, I averaged them and compared it to their seed equivalents (seed X 4). This is useful if you're in a pool where you get extra points for picking upsets. For example, the numbers suggest Memphis should have been between a 3-4 seed. Picking them to upset Michigan State isn't all that different from picking UofL to beat Michigan State.

Positive difference scores represent being under-seeded (i.e., deserving a better seed). Negative difference scores represent being over-seeded. Zero represents being seeded correctly. Each four points translates to 1 seed line. So, UL is overseeded -1.3, which is less than 4 points from zero, and means the seeding is about right for us.

I also ran a regression to see which rankings are most important to the committee in seeding teams. All three significally predicted seeding, but RPI was by far the strongest predictor and neither pomeroy nor sagarin rankings were significant predictors of seed with RPI included in the model. This strongly suggests that the committee uses RPI the most when seeding teams, or something else that is correlated with RPI. People often question our OOC scheduling. But, Pitino is a master of manipulating RPI.

I can't imagine more than 3-4 other people are interested in this, but here's the data:



Team Actual Seed Seed equivalent Pomeroy Sagarin RPI Pomeroy Difference Sagarin Difference RPI Difference Average score Average Score Difference
Memphis 8 32 9 13 16 23 19 16 12.67 19.33
Belmont 14 56 23 33 58 33 23 -2 38.00 18.00
California 12 48 28 31 36 20 17 12 31.67 16.33
Saint Louis 9 36 15 19 30 21 17 6 21.33 14.67
Long Beach State 13 52 37 41 39 15 11 13 39.00 13.00
Harvard 12 48 39 43 34 9 5 14 38.67 9.33
Wichita State 5 20 10 10 12 10 10 8 10.67 9.33
Texas 11 44 27 27 51 17 17 -7 35.00 9.00
BYU 13 52 50 39 45 2 13 7 44.67 7.33
Purdue 10 40 24 28 47 16 12 -7 33.00 7.00
Florida 7 28 19 17 29 9 11 -1 21.67 6.33
Alabama 9 36 29 29 35 7 7 1 31.00 5.00
Virginia 10 40 26 26 53 14 14 -13 35.00 5.00
Ohio State 2 8 2 2 7 6 6 1 3.67 4.33
Creighton 8 32 34 25 25 -2 7 7 28.00 4.00
South Dakota State 14 56 55 59 42 1 -3 14 52.00 4.00
Wisconsin 4 16 6 8 23 10 8 -7 12.33 3.67
VCU 12 48 46 50 38 2 -2 10 44.67 3.33
Kansas 2 8 4 4 6 4 4 2 4.67 3.33
Kentucky 1 4 1 1 2 3 3 2 1.33 2.67
Indiana 4 16 11 9 20 5 7 -4 13.33 2.67
Iona 13 52 57 52 40 -5 0 12 49.67 2.33
Vanderbilt 5 20 16 20 18 4 0 2 18.00 2.00
Connecticut 9 36 35 37 31 1 -1 5 34.33 1.67
Michigan State 1 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 3.00 1.00
Kansas State 8 32 22 22 49 10 10 -17 31.00 1.00
Baylor 3 12 14 12 8 -2 0 4 11.33 0.67
Iowa State 8 32 30 32 33 2 0 -1 31.67 0.33
New Mexico 5 20 13 16 32 7 4 -12 20.33 -0.33
Syracuse 1 4 7 5 1 -3 -1 3 4.33 -0.33
Missouri 2 8 8 7 10 0 1 -2 8.33 -0.33
UNLV 6 24 33 24 17 -9 0 7 24.67 -0.67
North Carolina 1 4 5 6 4 -1 -2 0 5.00 -1.00
Louisville 4 16 20 18 14 -4 -2 2 17.33 -1.33
Gonzaga 7 28 32 30 26 -4 -2 2 29.33 -1.33
Georgetown 3 12 12 14 15 0 -2 -3 13.67 -1.67
Marquette 3 12 18 15 9 -6 -3 3 14.00 -2.00
North Carolina State 11 44 44 45 50 0 -1 -6 46.33 -2.33
Duke 2 8 17 11 5 -9 -3 3 11.00 -3.00
Michigan 4 16 25 23 13 -9 -7 3 20.33 -4.33
West Virginia 10 40 42 38 57 -2 2 -17 45.67 -5.67
St. Bonaventure 14 56 51 61 73 5 -5 -17 61.67 -5.67
Florida State 3 12 21 21 11 -9 -9 1 17.67 -5.67
St. Mary's 7 28 43 35 28 -15 -7 0 35.33 -7.33
New Mexico State 14 56 63 63 64 -7 -7 -8 63.33 -7.33
Temple 5 20 36 36 19 -16 -16 1 30.33 -10.33
Ohio 13 52 72 72 46 -20 -20 6 63.33 -11.33
Murray State 6 24 45 40 22 -21 -16 2 35.67 -11.67
Xavier 10 40 59 55 41 -19 -15 -1 51.67 -11.67
Notre Dame 7 28 40 42 37 -12 -14 -9 39.67 -11.67
Cincinnati 6 24 31 34 43 -7 -10 -19 36.00 -12.00
Southern Mississippi 9 36 71 57 21 -35 -21 15 49.67 -13.67
South Florida 12 48 66 70 52 -18 -22 -4 62.67 -14.67
Colorado State 11 44 76 76 27 -32 -32 17 59.67 -15.67
Davidson 13 52 68 71 65 -16 -19 -13 68.00 -16.00
San Diego State 6 24 52 46 24 -28 -22 0 40.67 -16.67
Colorado 11 44 71 80 60 -27 -36 -16 70.33 -26.33
Lehigh 15 60 86 92 92 -26 -32 -32 90.00 -30.00
Montana 14 56 93 97 75 -37 -41 -19 88.33 -32.33
Lamar 16 64 102 115 108 -38 -51 -44 108.33 -44.33
UNC Ashville 16 64 121 125 99 -57 -61 -35 115.00 -51.00
Loyola-Maryland 15 60 148 133 78 -88 -73 -18 119.67 -59.67
Detriot 15 60 115 119 125 -55 -59 -65 119.67 -59.67
LIU Brooklyn 16 64 165 159 80 -101 -95 -16 134.67 -70.67
Vermont 16 64 120 147 137 -56 -83 -73 134.67 -70.67
Norfolk State 15 60 213 182 128 -153 -122 -68 174.33 -114.33
Western Kentucky 16 64 189 202 187 -125 -138 -123 192.67 -128.67
Miss Valley State 16 64 258 233 144 -194 -169 -80 211.67 -147.67
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