My love for the NCAA tournament is exceeded only by the ridiculous amounts of free time I have. In trying to fill out a bracket, I created a spreedsheet with all the teams and relevant computer rankings (i.e., Pomeroy Rankings, Sagarin Rankings, and RPI rankings). Then, I averaged them and compared it to their seed equivalents (seed X 4). This is useful if you're in a pool where you get extra points for picking upsets. For example, the numbers suggest Memphis should have been between a 3-4 seed. Picking them to upset Michigan State isn't all that different from picking UofL to beat Michigan State.
Positive difference scores represent being under-seeded (i.e., deserving a better seed). Negative difference scores represent being over-seeded. Zero represents being seeded correctly. Each four points translates to 1 seed line. So, UL is overseeded -1.3, which is less than 4 points from zero, and means the seeding is about right for us.
I also ran a regression to see which rankings are most important to the committee in seeding teams. All three significally predicted seeding, but RPI was by far the strongest predictor and neither pomeroy nor sagarin rankings were significant predictors of seed with RPI included in the model. This strongly suggests that the committee uses RPI the most when seeding teams, or something else that is correlated with RPI. People often question our OOC scheduling. But, Pitino is a master of manipulating RPI.
I can't imagine more than 3-4 other people are interested in this, but here's the data:
| Team | Actual Seed | Seed equivalent | Pomeroy | Sagarin | RPI | Pomeroy Difference | Sagarin Difference | RPI Difference | Average score | Average Score Difference |
| Memphis | 8 | 32 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 23 | 19 | 16 | 12.67 | 19.33 |
| Belmont | 14 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 33 | 23 | -2 | 38.00 | 18.00 |
| California | 12 | 48 | 28 | 31 | 36 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 31.67 | 16.33 |
| Saint Louis | 9 | 36 | 15 | 19 | 30 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 21.33 | 14.67 |
| Long Beach State | 13 | 52 | 37 | 41 | 39 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 39.00 | 13.00 |
| Harvard | 12 | 48 | 39 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 38.67 | 9.33 |
| Wichita State | 5 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10.67 | 9.33 |
| Texas | 11 | 44 | 27 | 27 | 51 | 17 | 17 | -7 | 35.00 | 9.00 |
| BYU | 13 | 52 | 50 | 39 | 45 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 44.67 | 7.33 |
| Purdue | 10 | 40 | 24 | 28 | 47 | 16 | 12 | -7 | 33.00 | 7.00 |
| Florida | 7 | 28 | 19 | 17 | 29 | 9 | 11 | -1 | 21.67 | 6.33 |
| Alabama | 9 | 36 | 29 | 29 | 35 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 31.00 | 5.00 |
| Virginia | 10 | 40 | 26 | 26 | 53 | 14 | 14 | -13 | 35.00 | 5.00 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| Creighton | 8 | 32 | 34 | 25 | 25 | -2 | 7 | 7 | 28.00 | 4.00 |
| South Dakota State | 14 | 56 | 55 | 59 | 42 | 1 | -3 | 14 | 52.00 | 4.00 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 10 | 8 | -7 | 12.33 | 3.67 |
| VCU | 12 | 48 | 46 | 50 | 38 | 2 | -2 | 10 | 44.67 | 3.33 |
| Kansas | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| Kentucky | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| Indiana | 4 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 13.33 | 2.67 |
| Iona | 13 | 52 | 57 | 52 | 40 | -5 | 0 | 12 | 49.67 | 2.33 |
| Vanderbilt | 5 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| Connecticut | 9 | 36 | 35 | 37 | 31 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 34.33 | 1.67 |
| Michigan State | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Kansas State | 8 | 32 | 22 | 22 | 49 | 10 | 10 | -17 | 31.00 | 1.00 |
| Baylor | 3 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 8 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 11.33 | 0.67 |
| Iowa State | 8 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 31.67 | 0.33 |
| New Mexico | 5 | 20 | 13 | 16 | 32 | 7 | 4 | -12 | 20.33 | -0.33 |
| Syracuse | 1 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 1 | -3 | -1 | 3 | 4.33 | -0.33 |
| Missouri | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 8.33 | -0.33 |
| UNLV | 6 | 24 | 33 | 24 | 17 | -9 | 0 | 7 | 24.67 | -0.67 |
| North Carolina | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 5.00 | -1.00 |
| Louisville | 4 | 16 | 20 | 18 | 14 | -4 | -2 | 2 | 17.33 | -1.33 |
| Gonzaga | 7 | 28 | 32 | 30 | 26 | -4 | -2 | 2 | 29.33 | -1.33 |
| Georgetown | 3 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 0 | -2 | -3 | 13.67 | -1.67 |
| Marquette | 3 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 9 | -6 | -3 | 3 | 14.00 | -2.00 |
| North Carolina State | 11 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 50 | 0 | -1 | -6 | 46.33 | -2.33 |
| Duke | 2 | 8 | 17 | 11 | 5 | -9 | -3 | 3 | 11.00 | -3.00 |
| Michigan | 4 | 16 | 25 | 23 | 13 | -9 | -7 | 3 | 20.33 | -4.33 |
| West Virginia | 10 | 40 | 42 | 38 | 57 | -2 | 2 | -17 | 45.67 | -5.67 |
| St. Bonaventure | 14 | 56 | 51 | 61 | 73 | 5 | -5 | -17 | 61.67 | -5.67 |
| Florida State | 3 | 12 | 21 | 21 | 11 | -9 | -9 | 1 | 17.67 | -5.67 |
| St. Mary's | 7 | 28 | 43 | 35 | 28 | -15 | -7 | 0 | 35.33 | -7.33 |
| New Mexico State | 14 | 56 | 63 | 63 | 64 | -7 | -7 | -8 | 63.33 | -7.33 |
| Temple | 5 | 20 | 36 | 36 | 19 | -16 | -16 | 1 | 30.33 | -10.33 |
| Ohio | 13 | 52 | 72 | 72 | 46 | -20 | -20 | 6 | 63.33 | -11.33 |
| Murray State | 6 | 24 | 45 | 40 | 22 | -21 | -16 | 2 | 35.67 | -11.67 |
| Xavier | 10 | 40 | 59 | 55 | 41 | -19 | -15 | -1 | 51.67 | -11.67 |
| Notre Dame | 7 | 28 | 40 | 42 | 37 | -12 | -14 | -9 | 39.67 | -11.67 |
| Cincinnati | 6 | 24 | 31 | 34 | 43 | -7 | -10 | -19 | 36.00 | -12.00 |
| Southern Mississippi | 9 | 36 | 71 | 57 | 21 | -35 | -21 | 15 | 49.67 | -13.67 |
| South Florida | 12 | 48 | 66 | 70 | 52 | -18 | -22 | -4 | 62.67 | -14.67 |
| Colorado State | 11 | 44 | 76 | 76 | 27 | -32 | -32 | 17 | 59.67 | -15.67 |
| Davidson | 13 | 52 | 68 | 71 | 65 | -16 | -19 | -13 | 68.00 | -16.00 |
| San Diego State | 6 | 24 | 52 | 46 | 24 | -28 | -22 | 0 | 40.67 | -16.67 |
| Colorado | 11 | 44 | 71 | 80 | 60 | -27 | -36 | -16 | 70.33 | -26.33 |
| Lehigh | 15 | 60 | 86 | 92 | 92 | -26 | -32 | -32 | 90.00 | -30.00 |
| Montana | 14 | 56 | 93 | 97 | 75 | -37 | -41 | -19 | 88.33 | -32.33 |
| Lamar | 16 | 64 | 102 | 115 | 108 | -38 | -51 | -44 | 108.33 | -44.33 |
| UNC Ashville | 16 | 64 | 121 | 125 | 99 | -57 | -61 | -35 | 115.00 | -51.00 |
| Loyola-Maryland | 15 | 60 | 148 | 133 | 78 | -88 | -73 | -18 | 119.67 | -59.67 |
| Detriot | 15 | 60 | 115 | 119 | 125 | -55 | -59 | -65 | 119.67 | -59.67 |
| LIU Brooklyn | 16 | 64 | 165 | 159 | 80 | -101 | -95 | -16 | 134.67 | -70.67 |
| Vermont | 16 | 64 | 120 | 147 | 137 | -56 | -83 | -73 | 134.67 | -70.67 |
| Norfolk State | 15 | 60 | 213 | 182 | 128 | -153 | -122 | -68 | 174.33 | -114.33 |
| Western Kentucky | 16 | 64 | 189 | 202 | 187 | -125 | -138 | -123 | 192.67 | -128.67 |
| Miss Valley State | 16 | 64 | 258 | 233 | 144 | -194 | -169 | -80 | 211.67 | -147.67 |
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