Just a few numbers I snagged (and expounded) from ITV:
Before I post them, I think the bottom-line is that they haven't seen the type of talent we'll be bringing in nearly 3 months. Unless they get insanely hot from the 3pt line, I really can't seem them beating us.
Of their 25 wins, exactly five of them are against teams with a winning percentage over .500. We have 15.
They've got exactly two wins over teams in the RPI Top 100. We have 13. Those two wins are (6) Kansas - very impressive, but it came Dec 19 - and (98) Penn on Dec 29. In 2012, they've played three games against teams in the top 150. They split with Charleston (118) and lost by 17 to Wich St (15) at home. The SoCon championship game was against 17-18 Western Carolina (225), and they beat them in 2OT.
They have three losses to teams outside the RPI top 100. We have 1... the implosion at Providence. They have one win over a team that made this year's tourney (Kansas). We have 10. I mean, shit, they have 4 wins in total against the top 150. We have 17.
According to the Pomeroy ratings, we've got the 2nd rated defense playing against the 19th most difficult schedule this season. Davidson's got the 37th rated offense playing against the 210th ranked schedule. They haven't seen a defense remotely close to what they will on Thursday. Their defense is ranked 124th. Our athleticism and their willingness to play up-tempo bodes well for us.
If we don't win by 10+, we've played very, very poorly. Last year, I thought Morehead State was a bad matchup (I still thought we'd win) due to rebounding problems we had all year. Our major problems this year are FT shooting and turnovers. Those are what cost us games. But against top 50 teams. I think we'll be fine.