What Are The Odds The Cards Go 12-0?

Andy Lyons

According to one computers results, Louisville has just a 16.6% chance of winning each of its next four football games.

PredictionMachine.com recently utilized its "Predictalaor" to run 50,000 simulations in an effort to see which of the six remaining undefeated teams has the best chance at finishing the regular season that way.

The results don't exactly inspire confidence if you're a Louisville fan, as the Cards are the least likely of the five at 16.6%.

Here are the results:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Games Remaining: 5 (with conference championship, though one of those games is against FCS Western Carolina)

Undefeated Chances: 54.7%

Closest Remaining Game: at LSU (November 2)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Games Remaining: 4

Undefeated Chances 39.8%

Closest Remaining Game: at USC (November 24)

Ohio State Buckeyes

Games Remaining: 3

Undefeated Chances: 28.8%

Closest Remaining Game: at Wisconsin (November 17)

Kansas State Wildcats

Games Remaining: 4

Undefeated Chances: 27.7%

Closest Remaining Game: at TCU (November 10)

Oregon Ducks

Games Remaining: 5 (including conference championship game)

Undefeated Chances: 20.2%

Closest Remaining Game: at USC (November 2 - at Oregon State is close)

Louisville Cardinals

Games Remaining: 4

Undefeated Chances: 16.6%

Closest Remaining Game: at Rutgers (November 29)

A few additional odds and ends from the results:

--Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 2 (after conference title games): 0.06% (or 1-in-1718)

--Chances Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 1.22% (or 1-in-82)

--Chances Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 2.23% (or 1-in-45)

--Chances Oregon is undefeated and Kansas State and Notre Dame are not on December 2: 8.79% (or 1-in-11)

--Chances Notre Dame is undefeated and Kansas State and Oregon are not on December 2: 22.96% (or 1-in-4)

--Chances Kansas State is undefeated and Oregon and Notre Dame are not on December 2: 13.31% (or 1-in-8)

--Chances that Louisville is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 2.62% (or 1-in-38)

--Chances that Alabama is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 15.83% (or 1-in-6)

--Chances that both Alabama and Oregon lose in their respective conference championship games: 4.28% (or 1-in-23)

--Chances that no FBS team is undefeated on December 2: 9.35% (or 1-in-11)

--Chances that Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame and Kansas State all have at least one loss on December 2: 15.75% (or 1-in-6)

The site goes on to outline the odds and winning percentages in each potential BCS championship game matchup, but does not include Louisville since the Cards "could not realistically make the BCS championship unless the next most likely participant has two losses."

It could happen.

PJ, Angels in the Outfield.

In This Article

Teams
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Card Chronicle

You must be a member of Card Chronicle to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Card Chronicle. You should read them.

Join Card Chronicle

You must be a member of Card Chronicle to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Card Chronicle. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker