Free Throw Update
by Carolina Cardinal on Jan 26, 2012 10:59 AM EST
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PrintIt was great to see us close out Villanova last night at the line. After an unfortunately, far too frequent, dismal 7 for 15 through the first 28 minutes, we finished making a whopping 17 of our last 19 (89.5%) in the final 12 minutes. That was 70.6% for the game. The second game in a row that we have exceeded 70% and the third game of our last four to do that. And that is the first time all season that we have had a string of four games with three of them above 70%.
Speaking of that, I noticed that since Christmas we are 4-5. In those four wins we shot 73.6% and were over 70% in every game. Conversely, in the five losses we shot 60%, with no games above 66.7% and three games under 60%. Not saying that the poor free throw shooting cost us the game (although it didn't help), but more like playing poorly overall spills over to our performance at the line too. Maybe a lack of focus or something, I don't know. Just thought it was interesting.
Additionally, last night we were 100% on our one and one chances making both the front and back end. In games where we have had more than one opportunity, we have only done that only one other time, about 20 games ago vs Lamar.
This puts us at 56.9% on our front end of the one and one opportunities for the year (33 of 58). Individual stats, listed in order of most attempts are as follows:
Dieng - 6 of 12 (50%)
CSmith - 8 of 11 (72.7%)
Siva - 7 of 9 (77.8%)
Russ - 4 of 8 (50%)
Chane - 3 of 5 (60%)
Buckles - 1 of 4 (25%)
Kuric - 3 of 3 (100%)
Price - 0 of 3 (0%)
Justice - 1 of 1 (100%)
Swop - 0 of 1 (0%)
SVT - 0 of 1 (0%)
Team totals 33 of 58 (56.9%)
Loving this trend guys. Keep up the good work and Go Cards.
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Amen Carolina Cardinal!
Free- Throws win games, but they also win Championships. Honestly, even with Preston getting hurt in the Morehead game, we still had a chance to ice it with less than 15 seconds to go, but Bullet (no offense), missed the front end of a 1- 1 when we had a 2 point lead. Hit both & that 3 still doesn’t win it for them at that point. free-throws…Free Throws…FREE THROWS!
Notre Dame loss
As I have said before we blew that one from the line. In the first OT we shot 50%. If we make one more FT there is no second OT because we win in the first.
And whileCarolina is correct on our “dismal 7 for 15” we were actually even worse before the last two of those 15 at a wonderful 6 for 13. It stinks when going 1 for 2 raises your percentage.
At the end of close games I instinctively say to myself
“If we can hit 75% of our free throws from here on out, they can’t beat us”…and It seems like it’s always true.
Your stats kinda validate that. Closing out games that we have the lead means making a decent amount of free throws and not giving up 3ptrs. Its amazing how often it seems like when we mis 1-2 freethrows when we have to opportunity to open a 3-4 score lead that the other team’s best player responds with a 3 at theother end to cut it to a single posession. That is what happened against both ND and GTown.
Solid free throw shooting is crucial to deep runs in Feb and March
You're specifically referring to the end of close games but nonetheless, 75% from the FT line is elite
Which also validates why you would expect an above average team that hits 75% from the line to be pretty successful late in games. Ironically, Villanova is the only Big East team shooting greater than 75% for the season & they’re having a relatively down year. Only 3 of their losses were by less than 10 points, so they’ve had bigger issues.
On average, less than 20 D-I teams (of 345) shoot 75% from the FT line each season. 69% has been the average D-I team FT% for 50+ years, therefore expecting higher than 70%-72% would be pretty ambitious for a Cards team currently shooting 67.7% from the line this season and 66.3% in conference play.
Only a couple U of L teams have ever shot 75% from the line in the last 50+ years, the most recent one being the last Final Four team, in 2003-04. That team shot 2.5% higher from the line (77.4%) in conference play than their season average (74.9%, which includes conference play as well as C-USA and NCAA Tournaments). In 3 of the last 4 seasons, U of L’s FT% during conference play was at least 1% better than the season average, with the 2008-09 team being the lone exemption (64.2% vs. all teams, 62.9% vs. Big East teams).
This ain’t 2004, but a +2.5% bump in the conference average is achievable (and to state the obvious, it’s statistically easier to improve from 67% to 69% than 75% to 77%), and a 70% average is a good goal for this group to shoot in its remaining games.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Jan 27, 2012 3:21 AM EST up reply actions
this is good stuff
I havenothing useful to add. thanks for the numbers.
by JohnTongEchoesinmyhead on Jan 26, 2012 10:33 AM EST reply actions
Points, Presses and Runs
Free Throws made extend runs and help to bury teams. Free Throws missed, give the other team hope and cause leads to die.
Its obvious that the few extra points from going from 60-70% from the line are important but its harder to quantify the impact of the additional chances to press, the morale impact of turning an 8-0 run into a 4-0 run and a 4-2 run just by hitting a few freebies in the middle. It just doesnt have the same feel for the players or an opposing crowd.
We are probably 2 wins richer with better free throw shooting so hopefully this trend continues.
He Hate UK
Great stuff!
Thanks for posting, Carolina!
by cardcorefan on Jan 26, 2012 3:36 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I'm liking that Chane, Gorgui, and Peyton all looked good at the stripe
They seem to go there the most. Like to see Russ improve because he certainly has the ability to draw a lot of fouls.
by Ellis from Compton on Jan 26, 2012 6:11 PM EST reply actions
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