More or Less.....That is the question.
by pitcrum on Jan 17, 2012 2:30 PM EST
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There may be a more pleasant way to spend two hours than watching this team, but I can't stop thinking that this game or the next is where they turn the corner. So as painful as it is, I'm in line for the punishment. The first 10 minutes of the game yesterday was very telling to me. They shot 3's and they hit them. Wow, I thought maybe we had forgot what that arc was doing on the floor. After the Depaul game I checked on our stats concerning the 3 point shot.
Last year in Nov. we averaged 25.8 3pt shots per game at 32% . This year in Nov. we averaged 16.8 at 33.6 %.
In Dec. last yr we averaged 25.4 shots at 40.1 %, This yr 20.4 shots per game at 30%.
Last Jan. we averaged 23.2 shots at 35.8 % This yr. so far in Jan. we averaged 18.4 at 31.5 %
Overall we are averaging somewhere around 17 3 point shots a game. Our lowest since 1999. The percentages are not off by a bunch overall.( throwing Dec out) I say we need to be shooting more. Just my opinion. i would love to hear your thoughts.
Stats from statsheet.com.
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I think the problems with this team are bigger than just correcting a stat number. I still think they are not playing as a team (internal conflicts).
-Dustin
We can't get open 3's unless they quit sagging off of Siva--
Siva isn’t being able to drive and dish effectively because his own outside shooting has not been good enough to keep the opponents D from sagging back and to the wings.
We have tried to create more open 3’s by making Kyle and Chris move a lot more, to try to shed defenders off of screens. It has worked some, but the key is Siva —and he just isn’t keeping the D “honest” with his shooting
i disagree with both of you
1st of all driving isn’t the only way to get 3’s as we showed during tht 18-2 spurt @ marquette. Getting 3’s in transition. (Which I hate but we make em) what was working and can work probably for the rest of the season is to dump the ball into the post.,. Inside out, but I think a heavy dose of both will be good we have gotten lots of open looks in the half court but thts on spacing and knowing how to get the defense to move
by jbcard on Jan 17, 2012 7:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I vote for: "make more shots"
why wasn’t that an option?
by johnnyjoejohnson on Jan 17, 2012 3:29 PM EST reply actions
Not only are we taking less threes this year, but a good portion are by the "wrong" guys.
Last year, most of our threes were put up by “good” perimeter shooters: Kyle, Chris, Marra, Preston, etc. If we took 23+ threes per game last year, a pretty good percentage of those were by our more “reliable” shooters. It’s not the case this year.
Just opinion and gut feel statistics, but you see what I’m driving at. So, yeah, shoot more threes, but only if the right guys are shooting them.
Stout Out!
How would you define "reliable"?
If you go by position—that is, if you call PG, SG, and SF as “reliable” and PF and C as “unreliable”, then:
2010-2011 season:
“reliable” = 36%
“unreliable” = 39%
2011-2012 season:
“reliable” = 33%
“unreliable” = 17%
The significant drop in the “unreliable” is all Chane (4 for 26) and Swop (1 for 10). Rock has continued his good 3 pt shooting (11 for 26 last year, 2 for 5 this year), and Dieng & SVT don’t shoot the 3. Also, this year the PF/C position has taken about 12% of all 3’s. Last year those positions accounted for 4% of all 3’s.
Another option is to define "reliable’ as anyone who shot over 30% last year or over 30% to date this year?
Then:
2010-2011 season:
“reliable” = 41%
“unreliable” = 28%
2011-2012 season:
“reliable” = 37%
“unreliable” = 16%
These percentage differences are shocking, but somewhat arise by construction—we forced the higher percentage shooters into the “reliable” group, so they, by definition, have a higher percentage.
More telling, when comparing the “reliable” to “unreliable” when we define the reliable group as shooting over 30% is when we look at percent of shots taken. Last year, those who ended the season shooting under 30% (“unreliable”) took 47% of 3’s whereas this year the “unreliable” group is taking just 26% of the total 3’s.
I’m not sure this supports your gut feel.
by JohnTongEchoesinmyhead on Jan 17, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
Good statistic! But, my definition is less statistical and more gut opinion - who is a "shooter" and who is not.
Preston had the 5th best percentage last year, but we’d probably say he was our most “reliable” by the fact he took 100 more than the next closest amount (Marra). Kuric had a great percentage, but a far greater portion of his attempts were open looks than what Preston’s were. Something that Kuric isn’t getting this year.
I wouldn’t call either Rak or Chane a “shooter,” though Rak has proven to be a higher percentage threat than Chane.
I guess my point is that we’re getting less open looks this year from our “reliable” shooters and the gap is partially being filled by Chane, Swop, Siva, etc. who are shooting it poorly.
Stout Out!
Which again points to getting the reliable guys open...which is best done thru dribble penetration and dishing A's to the reliable guys
and by the reliable guys constantly in motion to get open.
One of the obvious biggest differences is that Siva is far less effective at shooting this year, which is allowing opponents D to sag off toward the wings. And with his ankle problems, he is not blowing past guys like he did previously either.
We seem to be most effective now when Russ is on fire and is dishing some. because he will attempt shots from the top—or anywhere outside.
Another thing few have mentioned that’s a difference is the ball movement, both around the horn but also importantly inside and out. When it’s thrown inside, there could be a lot of opps for 3’s if the big men could draw the D in with a move and then dish quickly out to the wings or the top to Kyle, Chris, or Russ (the “reliable” shooters). But I don’t see that quickness on the passes back out.
It would also help if Pitino forbid Chane from taking another 3 !
sounds like you're basically saying we don't have Preston this year
Who does your “gut” tell you is a reliable shooter on the team this year? Who does your gut tell you were the reliable shooters last year? List them, then we can compare your “reliables” vs “unreliables” theory.
by JohnTongEchoesinmyhead on Jan 17, 2012 9:49 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
huh? what stats are you referring to?
seriously, because I’m confused.
by JohnTongEchoesinmyhead on Jan 17, 2012 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
John...for outside shooters , the 3 most consistent are Kuric (49% overall/35% on 3's), Chris (43%/42%, and Russ (37%/33%)
Siva is 34%/17%
For the big men inside , Buckles was shooting well—even on a limited # of 3’s even— but forget that.
Gorgui is 55%/and forget 3’s ; Chane is 43% /15%
So…since you can’t win by going totally inside or outside , you really need a combo effort , as I pointed out.
I personally believe we need to do two things more: 1) work it inside -and either be in position to take the high % inside shot or recongize it’s closed and fake the move and flash it back to the wings or better yet to the top arc; and 2) have Siva push partially into the zone that already sagging inward and kick it back out to the top arc-not to the wings, where the back of the 2-3 zone is now covering against us.
The outside shooters— the best we have now— are Kyle , Chris, and Russ. Simple as that.
The outside guys
Ok
First, Frankpos, follow along with the indentations—I wasn’t replying to you. I was replying to Stout. (That’s why I was confused by your reply to look at the stats.) My reply to Stout was below yours only because I responded to him after you did.
Second, my second effort at trying to define stout’s “reliable” is pretty darn close to the three you list as reliable (my full 2011-2012 list is Kuric, Russ, CS5, Nunez, and Hendo—but Nunez and Hendo have attempted a combined 17 3’s, so they don’t have much an impact).
Stout was arguing that this year a higher percentage of “unreliable” guys are taking threes. That doesn’t appear to be the case to me. Even if we restrict the reliable guys this year to Chris, Russ, and Kyle, they account for 67% of 3pt attempts year. If you say the reliable guys in 2010-2011 are Preston, Kyle, and Chris, they accounted for 60% of the 3pt attempts.
So, to sum up:
Frankpos: we just got into a pointless back-and-forth by talking over each other (sorry for the confusion)
Strout: The numbers don’t seem to support your “more unreliable guys are taking threes this year” argument.
by JohnTongEchoesinmyhead on Jan 18, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
We're missing Preston and Marra.
Though Marra’s percentage was not great last year, the scout on him is that he’s a shooter so you have to respect him on the perimeter.
We frequently had 3 threats (combo of Preston, Kyle, Chris, Marra) on the floor at most times, plus Siva. Now, Siva is struggling and we typically only have 2 threats on the floor from deep (combo of Russ, Chris, Kyle).
Stout Out!
I don't disagree with you, here
but you’ve changed the story a bit on me.
I’m not going to go through the game logs and record minutes & number of 3 pt threats on the floor, comparing last year and this year. In my gut it feels like we have fewer 3 pt threats out there this year, too. (I still think this is mainly because of the inability to replace Preston).
by JohnTongEchoesinmyhead on Jan 18, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
I say no
Feed the big men. Especially Gorgui…I’m watching the Marquette game and thinking, "why aren’t we getting Gorgs more shots. Then a graphic pops up that says he’s 4-4. I’d like tp see him taking a minimum of 10 shots per game. And if CHANE could learn to make dunks & layups he could be very effective.
It’s clear this is the worst shooting team we’ve had in a long time. Feed the big men!!
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