Will Louisville Make The NCAA Tournament?
by Mike Rutherford on Jan 17, 2012 8:41 AM EST
in Basketball
Email
PrintLet's just come right out with it, because I was talking about this last night and now I'm interested to see the results.
The Cards are currently 14-5 overall and 2-4 in the Big East. Just three and-a-half weeks ago it appeared this team was a legitimate threat to win the national championship.
Now we ask you simply: will the Louisville Cardinals make the NCAA Tournament?
101 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Yes, they will make it.
As long as this whole Kevin Ware debacle doesn’t bring itself around again.
This team never had offense but played great together until right when Kevin Ware was allowed to practice. We then play memphis and we win but he’s not playing yet. Then he starts coming around in the games after that when our team as a whole starts playing like shit. And hearing this kids fathers tweets i don’t doubt that this is what started the whole rift in the program and players choosing sides.
Correlation does not imply causation
You may be right but I think it’s mere coincidence.
I think we’re simply playing better teams and the games are even tougher (we get most everyone’s “best game”) now that conference play has started.
Our compounding injuries aren’t exactly helping either.
by CardiacCards on Jan 17, 2012 9:30 AM EST up reply actions
yeah im not saying thats the whole problem
But even with last years team and this team early on.
You can tell the difference between a not so talented team that plays their balls off and everyone is working towards that common goal without hidden personal agendas. And then a team like this one that obviously played with internal issues.
We have the talent and even with the injury’s we still have a team that should have been playing well. I think they played pretty well last night against Marquette. lots of calls didn’t go our way and they played hard the whole time. Loved seeing angel get in there. However they are obviously playing together again.
I know the ranking was
very high but I do not think anyone thought the Cards were a threat to win it all. I think the NIT is where this team is headed. Something would have to change immediately and I don’t think that is going to happen. Pittsburgh looked good enough last night against Syracuse to kill us. We don’t defend the 3 point shot and Gibbs can shoot it.
I knew we were never THAT good... but I never thought we were THIS bad.
"Free throws don't win and lose games." -John Calipari
by AllHailUofL on Jan 17, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Worst case scenario
@ Pitt – L
Nova – W
@ Seton Hall – L
Rutgers – W
UConn – W
@ WVU – L
Syracuse – L
@ DePaul – W
@ Cinci – L
Pitt – W
USF – W
@ Syracuse – L
That will be 8-10 in the Big East and 21-11 overall. I think the bubble will be pretty soft again this year and add that with 1 or 2 Big East tournament wins and it’s hard to not see them getting in. Also don’t think there’s any way Louisville drops both of the huge home games (UConn/Syracuse).
I think there would have to be serious off the court issues that lead to a complete implosion for them to have to miss the tournament. In the Big East a potential quality win is always less than a week away and they’ll just need to get 1 or 2 of those and stay near .500 and they’re definitely in.
You're probably right - 8-10 looks like the worst-case scenario, and 9-9 is more likely.
If we somehow get to 10-8, we’re probably in. But I would like to win some BET games to feel comfortable. UConn may have been 9-9 in conference last year, but of course, they won the BET, and they had some solid non-conference wins.
I still hope that Blackshear can be a difference-maker before the year is out, even if I doubt we’ll see his true abilities till next year. But if we can get him rolling in the next few weeks, and if we can get SVT to back up Gorgui, maybe we could reach 10-8.
The top of our zone has to get better as well, and that will have to come from existing personnel. We’re giving up way too many clean 3-point looks.
by cardsinindy2010 on Jan 17, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
I think part of the problem with the 3-pointers...
Is that our two guards at the top of the zone are both normally sub-6’ (Peyton and Russ) and other teams can simply shoot over us. Hopefully when KK gets back we can put Chris back at the 2 (though he seems much more effective at the 3, so maybe it’s a catch-22) and get some semblance of size there. Ware’s and Blackshear’s length and size could potentially help with our 3-point defensive woes, but until the team as a whole learns to rotate better within the zone (there were plenty of blown assignments last night alone) I think we’ll continue to struggle defending perimeter shots.
by CardiacCards on Jan 17, 2012 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
You are correct sir. But wait, there's more.
In this case both sides of the coin are against us. Pitino keeps harping on his guards to get down low and rebound (flashback to calling out Russ who had 5 bounds, third high, in that game). They are shading inside, ready to go rebound, and can’t get back out on the three point shooters. Watch how tightly we pack the zone (wish my wife could do that when we go on vacation — those bags kill my back). Then add your observation about the height of the guards which compounds the problem.
A couple of days ago I pulled the stats of the three point % of each of our opponents against us and for their seasons. I was surprised that we actually held quite a few to below their season average. So surprised that I kept staring at the numbers and then realized that there was a pattern. For the most part the lesser teams shot a lower than average % against us and the better teams exceeded their season average. This is not a good thing in terms of upsetting anyone.
I shot him an email but he dropped it.
by Carolina Cardinal on Jan 17, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
BOOM!
"Free throws don't win and lose games." -John Calipari
by AllHailUofL on Jan 17, 2012 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
I posted this last night before I went to bed in HotHot's post game wrap up. Since it seems to be the topic of discussion this morning I'll post it again here.
After the shock of seeing the Cards get outscored by 27 over the last 36 minutes wore off over dinner and conversation with the father-inlaw-to be, I came to a conclusion.
I’m going to be shocked and pretty dam amazed if we make the tournament.
14-5, with no decent road wins, a 31 point beat down to a bad team, and a home loss to a bad team.
14-5, and the way we’re playing now(?) I can’t see how we get enough wins to make it, I hope we do but it’s not going to happen if we continue to play the way we have.
We’ve seen pretty much no legit signs that things are getting better, and when asked about how things can get better, Rick’s answers are all over the map because there are sooooo many things that need to happen. Most of all getting healthy which, at this point, doesn’t seem even remotely possible.
So,… assuming we continue with the current trend:
@Pitt= Loss (14-6)
Nova= Win? (15-6)
@SH= Loss (15-6)
Rutgers= Win{MAYBE} (16-6)
UConn= Loss (16-7)
@WVU= Loss (16-8)
Cuse= Loss (16-9)
@DePaul= Win (17-9)
@Cinci= Loss (17-10)
Pitt= Win (18-10)
USF= Win (19-10)
@Cuse= Loss (19-11)
Christ almighty, that’s giving us the win against Rutgers, at home, who just beat ND, at home, which we couldn’t do and they dominated Pitt on the road@ Pitt where we will be next.
19 wins, 19 fucking wins,….. that’s about all I can convince myself of right now; and, that’s assuming that the team’s mental stability doesn’t go into the tank and they drop one at home to USF, Pitt, or Nova.
At this point I’m done bitching about it, no really I am. I’m pretty convinced that the worst is upon us, and I’m now hoping for the best. Lord,…. I never thought this would be what the 2011-12 season was going to look like.
Injuries that won’t stop, chemistry issues, eligibility issues, Pitino getting out-coached left and right, refusing to play the young guys early and now saying that the injuries are going to force him to do it?
WTF??? The injuries have been omnipresent from pretty much the beginning Rick,… so(?) maybe it would have been a good idea to bring those guys along against the LSOTP instead of on the road at Marquette.
I can’t take this shit anymore… AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can’t,…. I won’t, I won’t put my support behind Rick anymore if this is really where we are, and what this has come to. I will support the players, I will encourage them, and hope for their sakes that there is something to be salvaged this year,…. but Rick has all but lost me barring, what I would see as, a miracle.
So pissed right now with where everything is with our program. So pissed right now that I feel as though good people like Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith are going to leave this program on such a sour note. Most of all,… I’m just pissed at where this thing is, and where it looks like it’s going.
This was by far one of the most frustrating losses I’ve ever seen a Louisville team take in the regular season. Everything was on display today. Kids playing their hearts out and looking sharp, injuries, sloppy play, Pitino getting out-coached,….. again. It was all right there for everyone to see,… the bad with the good, but the good just not being enough anymore.
All I heard Rick say over and over again in the post game was that the guys played hard, and they did. But they didn’t play smart, they’re still executing like shit, and they still lost, again. That’s all on Rick, every last bit of it. You can’t coach heart, and those kids showed a lot of it today. They played hard, they did. But you can coach smart basketball, and you can coach execution.
I’ve rambled on for quite long enough now and I shall retire to bed. I will not criticize anymore. I will not say another bad thing about a player or coach on this team with respect to their performance on this "blog." I hope I’m wrong about what is to come. I hope that this teams’ fortunes are about to pivot dramatically in move in the other direction.
But,..
I just can’t keep convincing myself that it CAN happen without seeing proof that it CAN happen. I will reserve judgments until the season ends about what I think needs to happen.
Go Cards
Fool's names are like their faces, often seen in public places.
Follow @ChickStratino
by Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy on Jan 17, 2012 9:34 AM EST reply actions
Not saying we're not going to make it. Just that I'll be surprised if we do
Fool's names are like their faces, often seen in public places.
Follow @ChickStratino
by Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy on Jan 17, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
I think we make it
But barely.
Oh and no way we lose both games to Syracuse. One of those will be major far as pleading our case.
by twistedwedge on Jan 17, 2012 10:06 AM EST via mobile reply actions
It wouldn't be too crazy if we didn't make it...
Last night Pittsburgh lost to #1 Syracuse by 8 points, which scares me. Although I think we will win, I wouldn’t put money on us beating Pitt on Saturday.
Listening to the Louisville Sports Live postgame show last night, they brought up a good point about Louisville being the ‘#1 team for revenue’ and the YUM Center, which charges NBA prices for season tickets or even single game tickets. The place is the nicest college arena in the country, but the team we are putting on the court doesn’t reflect that. Louisville easily packs 20,000+ people to watch any game. Our fanbase is strong and supportive…but it is getting fed up when the team isn’t producing results.
Pitino’s excuse of ‘they played hard’ is null and void. Every team plays hard! Every team wants to win! Us playing hard should equal us winning freaking basketball games, not losing and getting a pat on the back. I don’t know if it’s a lack of leadership either from the senior players or Rick, but someone has got to rally the team together and finish a game. We were up 18-2 at the beginning!!! Ridiculous.
by IronWolfFirm on Jan 17, 2012 10:08 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
maybe you're looking at it wrong.
If Pitt only lost at Cuse by 8, maybe we will beat them, then beat Cuse. Since we always beat Cuse. Just constantly beating them over and over and over and over again.
by GOCARDSATTITUDE on Jan 17, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
Don't think they were excited to get 20-0? Did you see how many people were there? OK
by GOCARDSATTITUDE on Jan 17, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
I'm just saying it is possible the players didn't think they needed to bring their A game
I didn’t watch the game so I don’t know how well or how hard they played. It is possible, not probable, but possible that they looked at Pitt and thought their B game would be good enough. Sort of like us playing Morehead.
Oh wait.
Ok then
I take it you mean Cuse did play hard and Pitt played better than they have all year. Right?
Gotta be one of the dumbest comments I've read of yours
And u’ve written a few. Wake up from la la land girl.
by Daniel1969 on Jan 17, 2012 2:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Commenting on "how dumb"
someones comment is ironic (and dumb) when you use text speak. Just my .02
by twistedwedge on Jan 17, 2012 5:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not every team plays hard.
We did not play hard at PC, we didn’t play very hard in either OTs against ND.
by GOCARDSATTITUDE on Jan 17, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
If we do miss it, will we have to play an NIT game at Freedom Hall?
That will suck if Murray, Indiana and pUKe are playing at the YUM and we have to play at Freedom Hall. I don’t know what would be worse, another first round flameout or an NIT bid.
I could see both happening.
I've heard that we would have to play at Freedom Hall because the YUM! is booked for the tournament.
Just they still have a floor over there that doesn’t have a Big Blue “UK” logo on it. How deflating would that be?
Also, to me there’s no difference between the NIT and a 1st round flame out.
Fool's names are like their faces, often seen in public places.
Follow @ChickStratino
by Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy on Jan 17, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Actually I would love to have all three of them at the YUM
I have four lower bowl seats to the NCAA regional. Hello StubHub!!!!!!! Are you ready for some action!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Gotta make the $ to pay my “donation” for next year. Assuming of course we still have a team.
Didn't you know?
This is the last year for Louisville Basketball. No need to assume. This is it.
World over.
Everyday I'm Russelin'
yep, that's exactly what people are saying
Fool's names are like their faces, often seen in public places.
Follow @ChickStratino
by Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy on Jan 17, 2012 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
that was in direct response to somebody joking about not having one.
you have become angry, sir. Teddy Bear Siva wants to give you a hug.
by Justin Gingey Smith on Jan 17, 2012 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
You're right....I have
Fool's names are like their faces, often seen in public places.
Follow @ChickStratino
by Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy on Jan 17, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
And I do need a hug
Fool's names are like their faces, often seen in public places.
Follow @ChickStratino
by Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy on Jan 17, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
mine are 113, row Y
I am trying to figure out how I can work StubHub to charge UK fans more than IU or Murray fans. Don’t think I can but I am going to try.
Craigslist
Fool's names are like their faces, often seen in public places.
Follow @ChickStratino
by Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy on Jan 17, 2012 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
Eh... at least if it happens it will be because of the NCAA tournament and not the KHSAA tournament.
"Free throws don't win and lose games." -John Calipari
by AllHailUofL on Jan 17, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
Yes
I have no reason behind my vote. I don’t need one.
We will make the tournament.
Everyday I'm Russelin'
It's a 50-50 proposition at this point, but
If we finish with a losing record in the Big East regular season, we will not make the tourney. It’s as simple as that. Can anyone think of a school from a power conference receiving an at large bid with a losing record in their conference? Right now, I can’t, but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened.
Given the state of things with this team, winning seven more games and getting to 9-9 in the conference seems very difficult. Maybe that changes with Blackshear, but how much can we really expect from a guy who hasn’t played a game in a year? Will Pitino really just throw him out there and let him go?
If we can get to 9 wins in the league and win a game in the Big East tourney, we’re in the NCAA. Otherwise, I think we suffer the indignity of a NIT berth. I’m leaning that way, but not predicting that outcome right now.
10 total BE wins (including the tourney)
and you are in. Never has a BE team had 10 wins and not made the tournament. The bubble is softer this year than in years where the above statement was true and the average RPI of the BE is higher this year than the last 3.
by Remote Cardinal on Jan 17, 2012 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
My guess (hope) is yes
But I suspect we will be one of the invitees that the talking heads criticize for being included over (insert name here). And then we will complete the trilogy and lose our first round game again.
Why do I feel like this is the 05-06 season or the 09-10 season?
"Free throws don't win and lose games." -John Calipari
A good friend of mine doesn't care anything about college sports, or sports in general.
He goes to watch the games when we go but mainly does it just to drink beer.
I have grown to believe he is much smarter than I am.
"Winning gets you where you want to go"
-CS5-
by lvl1 on Jan 17, 2012 11:11 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
I still have a lot a faith in this team, we all know they are better than their record...
besides every year 9 teams from the Big East make the tourney anyway. I’m more worried about what happens once we get there.
by Louisville First on Jan 17, 2012 11:13 AM EST reply actions
I almost expect us to do better in the tourney because of our crappy record.
It just seems appropriate for Cardinal sports. It’s why I still have faith.
by Justin Gingey Smith on Jan 17, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Positive no more.
I have really tried to be positive, but I just can’t keep my mouth shut any longer. I left work in a frenzy yesterday so I could watch the last 8 minutes of the game. I kept up with the first half on the ESPN app on my phone. I watched Siva, our supposed leader get benched with 5 minutes left in the game for Ware? Siva did make it back around the 2 min mark, but the kid obviously has no confidence and isn’t showing himself to be any sort of leader. Russ being Russ is getting kind of old. I appreciate his scoring potential and courage to keep shooting, but some of those shots he takes are completely terrible. I have no idea of what sort of off the court garbage is going on, but I have to think its causing some of the issues with this team. No real leadership, debatable coaching, inter team drama, and marginal talent. I just can’t see this turning around, NIT is my guess. Pitino will solidify his place as the most over paid coach in all of sports by the end of the season.
by rednblackfan4life on Jan 17, 2012 11:39 AM EST reply actions
Russ is Russ
Only an idiot would say all of his shots are “good” ones. But here are a couple of interesting stats. He shot 40% which is not much lower than the rest of the team which shot 41.9%. And if you remove Dieng’s 4 for 5 the rest of the team shot only 36.8%. And worse still if you then remove Chris the rest of the team shot only a rousing 29.2%. Take out Behanan and we are 2 for 13 or 15.3%.
There are two bottom lines. One is no matter how many awful shots Russ takes he can still be one of our better % shooters. The second is if he can figure out how not to take just a third of those awful shots he will be our best % non-dunker shooter.
Read a story where he practices all kinds of crazy shots in the dark and stuff...
and Siva – God love him and I don’t want to be too down on him because I know how vital he CAN be to the team – has been nothing but a liability most of this year with his TO:A ratio. I’d take Bullet, then Ware over him for PG duties currently. Ware had almost as many boneheaded passes/turnovers too though. Seems to be able to finish better currently too.
GO! CARDS!
BEAT!
PURDUE!
Siva on the finish
He’s not even drawing fouls. Zero as in nada as in zilch as in not a freaking single free throw attempt the last three games. And the one before he went to the line only one time and missed both. Wow!
68(+1) team field could be the difference
UofL might need one of those additional 4 slots.
I can't believe that we're having this discussion. THIS WASN'T SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR.
by James Sutherland on Jan 17, 2012 11:43 AM EST reply actions
Me either.
Injuries and bad coaching are the two main reasons we are where we are.
by rednblackfan4life on Jan 17, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
ill put it this way
If we do make the tournament we will have to be one of the hottest teams in the country, or the most lucky
by HaHaSypher on Jan 17, 2012 12:16 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I think we turn it around and make it.
I won’t/can’t ever count them out until we’re bounced from the BET.
by cardcorefan on Jan 17, 2012 12:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Peyton
I refuse to go negative on Peyton. He’s a great kid & certainly deserves love from loyal Louisville fans. But if I had to pick just one glaring problem to correct that could make the most difference it would be that of our horrendous point guard play. There comes a time when for the greater good, something different must be tried. Rick needs to sit Peyton down in favor of Bullet. But it needs to be done in such a way as to not cause even further erosion of his confidence. I’m not the coach so I don’t exactly know how Rick can do that, but as the supreme motivator I’m sure Rick can figure it out. I believe Bullet deserves a shot at running this team. It could work out to benefit all involved—— the team, Peyton & Bullet. Who knows, it might be just what the doctor ordered & be the tonic to get Peyton out of this funk.
someone said Bullet hurt his back in practice
A. No clue if that’s correct
B. If correct no clue how long he will be out.
C. If correct what in God’s name goes on in those practices? This is basketball, not MMA.
I hope he DOES do this so you all can see what happens.
by GOCARDSATTITUDE on Jan 17, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
At this point it cant hurt
We all know you love Siva, but he is just a shell of his former self. For whatever reason his shortcomings that were overlooked/minimal in previous years are becoming glaring weaknesses this year.
~~~~~~~~
Go Cards!
by ULcardsfan502 on Jan 17, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Minnesota is making people's brackets
They are ass. We are fine. As long as we finish in the top 8 of the Big East and win 20, we are in. Stop worrying. Seeding is the only concern. We’ll be fine.
Agree. But I'd prefer we get WHITE HOT and win quite a few games in a row
and win at Seton Hall, beat Syracuse and UCONN (be Syracuse’s only loss btw), and don’t lose to DePaul or Pitt. Point blank period.
i agree
Now is the time to stand behind our team, and yes we have to get more out of the point gaurd position, I don’t understand Rick not playing bullet if he is healthy, why play swop at positions we are deep and not play bullet in a position we are depleted. Why play swop at all?. I geuss should be the bigger question..I think all the frustration about Siva from the fans is simply out of frustration because we have seen his potential,,we have seen him win games. We know you have it in you Siva, and we are waiting for the former you that took it to kemba walker last year. I think we are one big(Syracuse) game away from turning it all around..GO CARDS!
by HaHaSypher on Jan 17, 2012 1:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Of course we will beat syracuse
because it will help uk be #1. THAT IS ALWAYS OUR LUCK. I would take the win anyway!
Jesus Christ guys, the Big East is too good for us not to make it.
Marquette sucked and all, but we have UConn, Syracuse, Seton Hall (that was very odd to type), and most top 8 BEast teams left. We will beat USF, Nova, Pitt (at least once), and a couple more of the crappy Big East teams. Throw in the tournament, and there’s no way we’ll finish with less than 20+ wins. We’ll have the wins on the resume, and the only concern is finishing well for seeding.
Remember the Beef Bowl!
Yes. And, wins like Vandy and Memphis are going to end up looking pretty good on selection Sunday.
Stout Out!
agree, sort of
Vandy I think has been written off by most because of Ezili’s absence. Obviously we were missing half our players, but most commentators forget that part.
by Justin Gingey Smith on Jan 17, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I actually think they've been very aware of that part. I think it's the reason we've stayed in the top25 for as long as we have.
Fool's names are like their faces, often seen in public places.
Follow @ChickStratino
by Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy on Jan 17, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
