Louisville 2011 Football Outlook

I saw something like this on SBNation's SEC football blog, and found it quite interesting.

Basically, it broke down the schedule, labeling each game as "Win, probable win, possible win, probable loss."

Here is my personal formula for each:

Win: 100% Win percentage

Probable Win: >70% Win percentage

Possible win: 40-60% Win percentage

Probable loss:<30% Winning Percentage

Without further ado, the 2011 football schedule:

Week 1 Thursday, Sept. 1 Murray State Louisville, Ky. Papa John's ESPNU
Week 2 Friday, Sept. 9 Florida International Louisville, Ky. Papa John's ESPN
Week 3 Saturday, Sept. 17 @ Kentucky Lexington, Ky. Commonwealth Stadium TBA
Week 4 Saturday, Sept. 24 OPEN TBA
Week 5 Saturday, Oct. 1 Marshall Louisville, Ky. Papa John's TBA
Week 6 Saturday, Oct. 8 @ North Carolina Chapel Hill, N.C. Kenan Memorial Stadium TBA
Week 7 Saturday, Oct. 15 at Cincinnati * Cincinnati, Ohio Paul Brown Stadium TBA
Week 8 Friday, Oct. 21 Rutgers * Louisville, Ky. Papa John's ESPN
Week 9 Saturday, Oct. 29 Syracuse * Louisville, Ky. Papa John's TBA
Week 10 Saturday, Nov. 5 @ West Virginia * Morgantown, W.Va. Milan Puskar Stadium TBA
Week 11 Saturday, Nov. 12 Pittsburgh * Louisville, Ky. Papa John's TBA
Week 12 Saturday, Nov. 19 at Connecticut * East Hartford, Conn. Rentschler Field TBA
Week 13 Friday, Nov. 25 at South Florida * Tampa, Fla. Raymond James Stadium ABC/ESPN/ESPN2

Murray St.: Win
Florida International: Probable Win
@Kentucky: Possible Win
Marshall: Probable Win
@North Carolina: Probable Loss
@Cinncinatti: Possible Win
Rutgers: Win
Syracuse: Possible Win
@West Virginia: Probable Loss
Pittsburgh: Possible Win
@Connecticut: Posssible Win
@South Florida: Probable Loss

So Murray St. is the surefire win. We're not going 0-12. Yay.

FIUis a game where we should be on our game, because if we were to lose a nonconference game outside of the UK/UNC part of the schedule, it's this game. That being said, I think we win.

Kentucky is a toss-up. No comment here, as neither team has a definitive edge.

Marshall possibly could be bumped up to win status, but the herd may show some fight.

Because Louisville is so young, they will probably have a tough time on the road against a talented UNCteam (assuming their stars are eligable).

Cinncinattiwill be getting star QB Zach Collaros back. Louisville played the Collaros led Bearcats and lost at home. Could be a very tough crowd, especially at Paul Brown Stadium, which (I believe) seats almost double the Big East's smallest stadium, Nippert Stadium. At the same time, after the Cincy game last year, the D started to figure it out. That game was the last of our defensive struggles. I've got the Ville in a close game.

Rutgers sucks, plain and simple. Give me a dub.

Syracuseand UL are REALLY even. No comment at this time.

West Virginia is far and away the best team in the Big East. Tough game in Morgantown. Don't see this one going well.

Pittsburgh, if they can get it together under former Tulsa coach Todd Graham (where have we heard this before...), could challenge for the Big East crown. With them being very talented, I don't see us winning this one.

UConn I don't see as much of a problem, because as you know the offense declared for the NFL draft. Win.

USFis tough just because we generally suck in their building. I think USF will be really good next year. Don't see us winning this one.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we split the SU-UK games. Here's what I've got:

Wins: Murray St., FIU, Marshall, UK/SU, UConn, Cinncinatti,, Rutgers
Losses: UK/SU, North Carolina, West Virginia, Pitt, USF

That would bring the Cards to 7-5, and a bowl game. I think that it would be the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
So, post your record and justify it. I believe a 7-5 season is in store for us.


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