Why Louisville will/will not Make a run to the Final Four
by HorsePig55 on Mar 14, 2011 6:14 PM EDT
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PrintTough region, tough team. There's a reason this team has made it this far.
The Louisville Cardinals are in the incredibly tough Southwest bracket. Louisville will need to (most likely) go through Vandy(good matchup), Kansas (#2 overall seed), and either Notre Dame or Purdue.
WHY LOUISVILLE WILL BE IN THE FINAL FOUR
- The Grit- This team can bounce back. This team is tough, with tough man to man defense. We are tough. I'll just leave it at that.
- Decent matchups- Louisville, believe it or not, has good matchups in the tourney. Let's start with Morehead. The Eagles will obviously play hard, but outside of Faried are just not talented enough. Vanderbilt is a great matchup for our style. They turn the ball over 20 freaking percent of the time. Our defense will stuff them and get plenty of turnovers. Kansas has two better forwards, but we have much better guards. Brady Morningstar, Tyshawn Taylor, and Tyrel Reed really don't scare me at all. Peyton Siva is the best point guard in the region. Preston! is a top 3 two guard. Smith/Marra are major enigmas but if they catch on, we will be dangerous. And Notre Dame we have a blueprint for beating. Purdue's guards outside E'twan Moore aren't jack. They don't have a decent center.
- Our style- A lot of teams can't run with us. If we shove our style down some teams' throats, points galore. I'm also going to throw in our skill at the four. To be clear, Kyle is not a four. He is a big two or a three. But he is going to be able to either outrun other bigs or break their ankles. Anyway, slow it down teams are going to be way more turnover prone and tired in games.
- Coaching. Whether SOME OF YOU like it or not, RP is a hall of famer with legendary preparation.
WHY LOUISVILLE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE FINAL FOUR
- Size at the four/rebounding- Ever since the four guard lineup has gelled, our rebounding has been great. But you've got to worry about a matchup like the Morris twins who are going to gobble down every rebound. This is where missing Rock or Swop is going to sink us like a Rock going down Swopshire Lake (WOOT! Lame joke). Rock was a major key, and now he is gone for the year.
- We are a pod team- The Cards were two for three EVERY segment. We never had a three game winning streak after the nonconference. We have seemed to always have a clunker in there just waiting to slap us in the face.
- Injuries- Yes we are still deep. But lets face it, Elisha Justice is not a viable backup. With Mike Marra, you never know. Stephen Van Treese is somewhat viable, but he is a huge dropoff from Rock as far as scoring and skill goes. Gorgui is very raw and is very prone to making the "you've got to be kidding me" play. But Hendo is averaging 67.8 ppg and 41.5 rebouds per game. Very nice. Siva just hurt his ankle. If he re-injures it badly, we're done. Same goes form PK and Kyle. Peyton Siva, Preston Knowles, Chris Smith, Kyle Kuric, and Terrence Jennings are going to have to log heavy minutes.
Well, tourney starts Friday. How far do we go? Go Cards.
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I can't not vote for the last one.
Although it might not happen, this team has proved me wrong too many times for me not to believe.
Just sayin
I’m not sure if you were referring to Purdue having no decent center, but JaJuan Johnson is a beast. Also, we did win four games in a row near the end of the conference season (1st segment: loss, win, win 2nd segment: win, win, loss.) I’m with you an most other points though.
by Get_In_My_BELLY_ on Mar 14, 2011 6:55 PM EDT reply actions
Also
I’m pretty sure KU goes with 3 Forwards (Morris, Morris, Robinson). I think this will be the one game we can afford to be owned on the boards, because most of the game Kuric will play the 4 and CS5 will play the 3, most likely giving us a lot of decent looks from 3. And good point about Siva and Knowles, I think they are superior to KU guards and will present a tough matchup. But hey, Morehead and Vandy are no cupcakes. Let’s get this done.
by Get_In_My_BELLY_ on Mar 14, 2011 7:00 PM EDT reply actions
Excellent post.
I certainly agree that our undersized front line and poor rebounding is an area many teams will try to exploit and these are very good teams so I’m afraid they will have some success. You have to love these guys for the effort they have made this year but facts are facts and they are likely to be manhandled down low by some of the bigger teams. And it seems the refs never call those kind of fouls, only the ticky tack reach in fouls that we commit. Also note that our rebound numbers have improved lately but that is because we are sending everybody to the boards. Against UConn our point guard was our leading rebounder?? That will really slow down our ability to run the floor which is one of our strengths. So it’s a trade-off, staying competitive on the boards costs us those transition baskets.
I would also add that our at times poor free throw shooting and the huge differential of made free throws we have with our opponents could easily result in a loss.
by Carolina Cardinal on Mar 14, 2011 7:09 PM EDT reply actions
NO! I JUST now voted!!!!!!!
But who are all these HUUUUUUUUUUUGE assholes with us losing in the Final Four??? NONE Y’ALL ARE COMIN’ TO HOUSTON! Stay away!!!!!!
by GOCARDSATTITUDE on Mar 15, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Hint
Starts with J and ends with eff Goodman
by Get_In_My_BELLY_ on Mar 14, 2011 11:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think we get to Sweet Sixteen
but we’ll need a nearly flawless performance from everyone and even then probably a few mistakes at key points by KU to pull that off. Their frontline is scary scary. Agree that we edge them out at the 1 and 2, but honestly not by very much. Kansas is solid at every position, well coached, used to winning, and not going to rattle. I do like Louisville’s draw in their first couple of rounds, though. Morehead does not scare me. Faried alone won’t get it done and we match up well against a sloppy defensive team in Vandy. But, the more I think about it, the more I think we might get Richmond in the Round of 32. They finished really strong and looked fundamentally sound. We might have some matchup issues there, but nothing major. Either way, I think we get to 16 and need some help to beat Kansas. BUT, if we do somehow beat them, we have a real shot at a Final Four.
ND/Purdue much more likely to give us a close game. I want to play Uconn just to say- boom. ok. we reign.
Yet I can’t stand the thought of Kemby and entourage getting that far. Would be so annoying and take away from our win. Would be all about there 99 consecutive wins led by THE BIG STAR. Can’t you just see it now??
by GOCARDSATTITUDE on Mar 15, 2011 12:36 AM EDT reply actions
I really don't know
What scares me is the inability to get easy buckets when they’re really needed. I won’t get into it, we can score a lot, but we can’t muscle in a deuce when the game is tight…which happens to be the type of games the team gets in. I voted optimistically for an elite eight appearance but I’ve watched enough Kansas this year to know how good they are.
But this team brings it against good teams.
A Kansas game, should it come to pass, would be – how you say? – winnable.
"Screech, you CAN'T elope!"
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