On Louisville's NCAA Tournament Seed

This won't be a popular opinion but Louisville deserved a 4-seed this year. Could there be a case for Louisville to swap seeds with Purdue or a Brandon Davies-less BYU team? Maybe. But, while Louisville owns winning head-to-head records against 3-seeds UConn and Syracuse, that aspect plays a minor factor in the selection committee's war room.

This isn't the Big East Tournament. Each team's body of work, November through March, must be examined to determine fair seeding. We can debate whether Florida deserves a 2-seed, if Louisville's regional draw is undeservedly tough and several other plausible scenarios that affect Louisville's tournament plight. This exercise, however, is limited to hastily analyzing the resumes of each team on the 3 line and comparing them to Louisville's. Boom, blogger'd.

#3 UConn 26-9 (14-9)

Good Road wins: Texas, Marquette & Cincinnati 

Good non-conference wins: at Texas, Tennessee, Michigan State (neutral), Kentucky (n), Harvard

Bad loss: None

Worst loss: Marquette at home (Note: All 9 of UConn's losses were to teams in the NCAA Tournament)

Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 12-9 

AdjO*: 21     AdjD*: 31

 

#3 BYU 29-4 (16-3)

Good Road wins: UNLV,  Colorado State, San Diego State 

Good non-conference wins: Arizona, Utah State, St. Mary's

Bad losses: None

Worst loss: at home to New Mexico (66 RPI)

AdjO: 8     AdjD: 37

Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 6-2

 

#3 Syracuse  26-7 (13-7)

Good Road wins:  St. John's (twice), UConn, Villanova, Georgetown

Good non-conference wins: Michigan, Michigan State

Bad loss: Seton Hall (102 RPI)

AdjO: 17     AdjD: 16

Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 10-6

 

#3 Purdue 25-7 (14-5)

Good Road wins:  Virginia Tech, Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State

Good non-conference wins: Oakland, at Virginia Tech, Alabama, Indiana St

Bad loss: at Iowa (186 RPI)

AdjO: 18     AdjD: 8

Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 11-5 (Includes 13 point win over #1 overall NCAAT seed Ohio State, whose athletic director happens to be the Selection Committee Chairman)

 

#4 Louisville 25-9 (14-7)

Good Road wins: UConn

Good non-conference wins: Butler, UNLV

Bad losses: at Providence (154 RPI), Drexel (74 RPI, non-tourney team)

AdjO: 36     AdjD: 5

Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 11-7

*AdjO & AdjD = Adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency ratings per kenpom.com 

One of the biggest disparities is the lack of quality road wins on Louisville's resume. If one analyzes the total body of work--and we've included a few of the more important resume factors above--I don't think Louisville fans can/should be upset with getting a 4-seed.  Agree or disagree? 

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