On Louisville's NCAA Tournament Seed
by UL is my hot hot sex on Mar 14, 2011 10:25 AM EDT
in Basketball
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PrintThis won't be a popular opinion but Louisville deserved a 4-seed this year. Could there be a case for Louisville to swap seeds with Purdue or a Brandon Davies-less BYU team? Maybe. But, while Louisville owns winning head-to-head records against 3-seeds UConn and Syracuse, that aspect plays a minor factor in the selection committee's war room.
This isn't the Big East Tournament. Each team's body of work, November through March, must be examined to determine fair seeding. We can debate whether Florida deserves a 2-seed, if Louisville's regional draw is undeservedly tough and several other plausible scenarios that affect Louisville's tournament plight. This exercise, however, is limited to hastily analyzing the resumes of each team on the 3 line and comparing them to Louisville's. Boom, blogger'd.
#3 UConn 26-9 (14-9)
Good Road wins: Texas, Marquette & Cincinnati
Good non-conference wins: at Texas, Tennessee, Michigan State (neutral), Kentucky (n), Harvard
Bad loss: None
Worst loss: Marquette at home (Note: All 9 of UConn's losses were to teams in the NCAA Tournament)
Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 12-9
#3 BYU 29-4 (16-3)
Good Road wins: UNLV, Colorado State, San Diego State
Good non-conference wins: Arizona, Utah State, St. Mary's
Bad losses: None
Worst loss: at home to New Mexico (66 RPI)
AdjO: 8 AdjD: 37
Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 6-2
#3 Syracuse 26-7 (13-7)
Good Road wins: St. John's (twice), UConn, Villanova, Georgetown
Good non-conference wins: Michigan, Michigan State
Bad loss: Seton Hall (102 RPI)
AdjO: 17 AdjD: 16
Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 10-6
#3 Purdue 25-7 (14-5)
Good Road wins: Virginia Tech, Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State
Good non-conference wins: Oakland, at Virginia Tech, Alabama, Indiana St
Bad loss: at Iowa (186 RPI)
AdjO: 18 AdjD: 8
Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 11-5 (Includes 13 point win over #1 overall NCAAT seed Ohio State, whose athletic director happens to be the Selection Committee Chairman)
#4 Louisville 25-9 (14-7)
Good Road wins: UConn
Good non-conference wins: Butler, UNLV
Bad losses: at Providence (154 RPI), Drexel (74 RPI, non-tourney team)
AdjO: 36 AdjD: 5
Record vs. NCAA Tournament Teams: 11-7
*AdjO & AdjD = Adjusted offensive/defensive efficiency ratings per kenpom.com
One of the biggest disparities is the lack of quality road wins on Louisville's resume. If one analyzes the total body of work--and we've included a few of the more important resume factors above--I don't think Louisville fans can/should be upset with getting a 4-seed. Agree or disagree?
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Can't disagree with your analysis of the 3s
I can even see, based on how you laid out the argument, the argument for Syracuse over us. However, I still think we should have been a 3, if only because BYU should have been a 2 and Florida should have been a 4.
not sure i'm so much mad at UL getting a 4 seed, its about what we deserve, but....
its that a team like florida got a 2 seed…
UL beat a(n) ND team playing for a 1 seed, and a Pitt team that is a 1 seed in the last 2 weeks of the season, made it to the tournament finals in the toughest conference in america, losing to a team that was on a major hot streak. the drexel loss probably hurt us more than we originally believed it would.
some level of consistency and transparency from the committee would go a long way, IMO.
I keep telling people FLorida ended up as a 2 for a couple of reasons
The main one being they were probably a 3, but ended up getting bumped because the committee had to keep somebody from not getting too much of a home court advantage, or because they couldn’t have 5 BE teams in the same region. This always happens.
by Chris Redman is my hero on Mar 14, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
I think UF’s 2-seed had less to do with their resume than the factors you mentioned.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Mar 14, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree
I was fine getting a 4 seed. I figured we wouldn’t get a 3 unless we won the BET.
by Chris Redman is my hero on Mar 14, 2011 11:01 AM EDT reply actions
But, it's lousy we drew the 2nd best 1 seed in our region.
So, both Wisconsin and Texas gained favor over us by drawing Pitt and Duke.
Stout Out!
We saw with UConn how hard it is to beat a good team multiple times...
So I’m not sure I would want Pitt again in our region. I would definitely prefer Duke to Kansas, but I’ll take Kansas instead of OSU.
by cardsinindy2010 on Mar 14, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Road record
I’ll stick to what I said after the WVU game. Coughing up that game hurt us worse than the Drexel loss because it would have brought us up to a .500 road record and it showed us unraveling in the final minutes. Both look bad to the committee. Losing to Drexel sucks, but our home record doesn’t need a lot of help when we’re sitting at 18-2 with wins over UConn, Syracuse, and Pitt.
by cardcorefan on Mar 14, 2011 11:14 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Unraveling in the final minute?
Marquette, UConn 1st time, Pitt, ND 2nd time….all those games we didn’t unravel. If anything this team has shown they always have a chance to win a game late.
by CardinalDude on Mar 14, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that this team is awesome.
Don’t get me wrong. I love this team more than I’ve EVER loved a basketball team. Maybe it’s because they are typically shorter than their opponents. Maybe it’s because they’re so hard working on defense. Maybe it’s because I’m friends with three of them on facebook. However, I don’t think(like so many ‘experts’ do), that we are this poor, untalented group of losers who are winning solely because of good coaching. We’ve got some guys who can flat out play some ball on this team. I am immensely grateful that they have been able to overcome all the injuries and lineup changes and size discrepancies to accomplish what they have this year. So grateful, in fact, that I can brush off the games we lost that we should’ve won(Providence, Georgetown, Drexel, West Virginia). After all, this team has won some amazing ones that we should NOT have won(Marquette!, BET Notre Dame, at UConn in double OT).
The only game that really hurts us is to lose a game when we’re up 5 with under a minute to play, for reasons I mentioned above. I believe the Selection Committee puts a lot of weight on winning on the road.
Having said all that, I really don’t think it matters what seed we get or who we play. This team is the bomb! This team refuses to lose! This team will not give away another game this season. If someone thinks they are worthy of beating them(yeah right), they are going to have to drag them kicking and screaming off the court!
P.S.-It ain’t gonna be Morehead or Vandy.
by cardcorefan on Mar 14, 2011 11:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Agree
Richmond deserved a higher seed if you aske me, but I live an hour from Nashville, so I’d actually like to see us beat Vandy.
by cardcorefan on Mar 14, 2011 11:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
According to digger
Richmond is a joke to get into the tourney
What a tool
by itsALLintheCARDS on Mar 14, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
so how does syracuse beat us out for the 3??
they have two non conference wins against Michigan who is an 8 seed and Michigan St who is a 10, we have two non conference wins against UNLV and Butler who are both 8’s. we beat them head to head and finished in front of them in the Big east regular season and tournament.
by cheaters never win on Mar 14, 2011 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
I assume it's because..
They are 6-3 on the road. We are 4-6
by cardcorefan on Mar 14, 2011 12:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Louisville and Syracuse have very similar profiles i.e. wins vs. Top 50, non-conf wins, conference record, etc...
But head-to-head records aren’t as important to the Selection Committee as many assume. Compare Louisville’s true road record to Syracuse’s and it’s not even close. The Orange also have a much better non-conf SOS b/c Louisville played a few more cupcakes.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Mar 14, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the four seed is right...but Morehead could be a bad matchup
Faried is a beast on the boards, and I can see Jennings getting a lot of fouls out of frustration. I’m thinking Van Tressie for the start,and a lot of Siva bear penetration to try and fluster Faried.
Of Belmont, Oakland, Morehead St & Princeton (13 seeds)
Morehead St is probably the second “easiest” match-up for Louisville. I want no part of Belmont or Oakland.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Mar 14, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Ken Pomeroy
Gives Louisville an 88% chance of beating Morehead with a predicted score of 71-59. Morehead State’s Kenneth Faried is first in all of college basketball in offensive rebounding percentage (20.1%) and defensive rebounding percentage (31.6%.) He is also ranked 11th in effective field goal percentage.
by Danny Duberstein on Mar 14, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Faried was just named a Second-team All-American, too
Pretty big deal for a small school like Morehead State.
I think Belmont is the class of the #13 seeds by a sizable margin. One could argue Oakland & Morehead St are similar but I think Oakland is the more complete team. Princeton would be the most favorable draw, IMO.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Mar 14, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
But against what level of competition?
the guy’s a monster, no doubt, but no one can convince me he’d have similar stats playing in the BE or Big 12 this year.
Faried had
20 pts and 18 rebs on 10-17 shooting against Florida and had 15pts, 12 rebs and 5 steals against Ohio State and Sullinger early in the season. These are Morehead’s only notable opponents.
by Danny Duberstein on Mar 14, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
It should be pointed out that Faried’s game against Florida was early in the season when Florida was losing to the likes of Jacksonville and UCF. Florida is much better now. The buckeyes beat Morehead by about 20 points and Faried only took 8 shots.
by Danny Duberstein on Mar 14, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You would assume
UK was the lowest ranked 4 seed since it was put in the region with the top overall #1 seed.
by Danny Duberstein on Mar 14, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate them
But their road record(4-7), is similar to ours(4-6).
by cardcorefan on Mar 14, 2011 12:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
UK was 4-7 on the road
Louisville 4-6. Not a big difference. UK’s non-conference schedule, including neutral and true road games, was 10 times better than Louisville’s. The Cats also soundly beat Louisville at the Yum! Center, one of only 2 losses for the Cards at home. That was a huge feather on their resume and arguably their best win. The selection committee loves non-conference balls. Of course, UK has to do that b/c their conference schedule has several cupcakes.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Mar 14, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
4 seed is fine for us, but 3 for Syracuse too high
If the argument is to look at body of work, then IMHO Uconn should drop down; they had quite the swoon, which everyone seems to have forgotten in the past three days.
If the argument is that wins in the conference tourney matter more, then UL is clearly better than Syracuse.
You can’t have it both ways. It’s almost as if a different criteria (RPI, body of work, performance in conference, last 10 games) was used in each region.
true road wins > conf tourney wins
Louisville & Syracuse both narrowly lost to a UConn buzzsaw in the tournament. Louisville only padded their neutral court resume in the Big East Tournament, Syracuse’s road resume is still much stronger by comparison.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Mar 14, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Move Florida to a 4,
and begin the whole thing from scratch.
by Feathered Biceps on Mar 14, 2011 1:06 PM EDT reply actions
Florida
In their defense, they have a road record of 8-2 with their one of those losses against UK(who hasnt lost at home in 2 years). They have an rpi of 8 and SOS of 6 and only 7 total losses.
by cardcorefan on Mar 14, 2011 2:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yea, I know
they may very well prove the committee correct. It’s always difficult to stay objective on these matters, especially when people can really just differ due to the scope their analysis. I watched so many games the last three weeks, that’s probably accounting for about 80% of my opinions.
It does seem like the S.C. used the entire season in deciding most of these seeds. Which I cannot say is wrong to do.
I didn’t watch the seletion show and I wonder what the S.C. actually said in their defense on a lot of the picks. As hot hot points out, it does seem like road wins mattered a lot. I really surprised the ‘Cats weren’t a seed ahead of us, but think the road record was an issue there.
by Feathered Biceps on Mar 14, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Road games
We’ve known for a while that they took road games seriously. When we were #1 overall two years ago, weren’t we undefeated on the road in conference games?(9-0)
by cardcorefan on Mar 14, 2011 3:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Definitely,
just more than I expected them to matter, IMO (not that it shouldn’t be respected either). Almost to the point that it dilutes everything else.
I’m good with our seed. There’s no place to hide in this bracket anyway.
And I don’t know if we were 9-0, but we were for sure taking care of business against some top ranked teams on the road.
by Feathered Biceps on Mar 14, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree
It seems like our home wins over Syracuse, Uconn, and Pittsburgh mean less than UNC’s lone home win against Duke, but, that’s to be expected.
Kansas in the Sweet 16
Kansas is tough but I’ll point out, which I’m sure the media will as well, that Rick is undefeated in the Sweet 16 round. We just have to get there first.
Since conference play began, we haven't swept a 3-game pod yet...
so which stat wins, Pitino’s Sweet 16 record or our Pod record?
Thinking about these things while filling out a bracket does not mean I’m neglecting my work today… ok?
by loverofthegame on Mar 14, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
They are ALL 2-game sets now.
That is the beauty of it. We win at least 2 games in every set we play.
by cardsinindy2010 on Mar 14, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
UConn lost lost 8 or 9 BEast games
End of story. They were crap until Kemba Walker started playing well. If anyone shuts down Walker they cant do jack ****.
"Marquise Teague Sucks!"
-Bryce Cotton
Eric Crawford
“Against teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 in the tournament, Louisville finished the season 5-2, with both losses away from home. In overtime.”
Wasn't the 2nd loss to UConn in the tourney?
If so, not in overtime.
by Get_In_My_BELLY_ on Mar 14, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Flaw in your argument...
Here is why I do think the seed is wrong. Louisville may be only 11-7 against the field, but look at who they beat: two 3 seeds in Syracuse and UConn, a 2 seed in ND, and a 1 seed in Pitt. They make the final of the toughest conf. tourney in the nation losing to a team they beat twice in the regular season. As for losses… I would argue that Uconn losing at home to Marquette (despite Marquette being a tourney team) should count. Syracuse also lost on the road to Marquette and at home to Seton Hall who didn’t make the tourney. BYU lost to New Mexico twice, UCLA once (not ranked teams) and played only one ranked team all year in S.D. State whom the lost 1 out of 3 to. Purdue lost at home to a Richmond team who is lucky to be in the dance, and lost against three mediocre at best conf. teams in Minn., Iowa, and Mich. St. Finally… head to head should count for something, UofL defeats Cuse in their only game, beats UConn 2 out of 3 one of those at UConn, split with ND, and beats Pitt the only time they play all year. I’m sorry but I think we have plenty of reason to complain.
Great argument
UConn: 5-4 against Top 4 seeds with wins at #4 Texas, vs. #4 UK (neutral), and then neutral wins (BET) vs. #3 Syracuse, #1Pitt and #4Louisville.
Syracuse: 2-3 against Top 4 seeds with wins at #3 UConn & #2 Notre Dame at home.
Purdue: 2-2 against Top 4 seeds with wins over #1 overall Ohio State and #4 Wisconsin, both at home.
Louisville: 5-3 against Top 4 seeds with wins at #3 UConn, vs. #2 ND (neutral), and #3 UConn, #3 Syracuse, & #1 Pitt, all at home.
UConn’s record vs. Top 4 is better (in committee’s eyes) than Louisville’s due to the amount of road/neutral wins.
Louisville’s record vs. Top 4 seeds is better than Syracuse’s but they’ve also had 3 more opportunities than Cuse, which to their credit were created by the Cards’ performance in the BET.
Purdue’s record vs. Top 4 seeds is also not as impressive as Louisville’s but the Boilermakers did defeat the top overall seed, Ohio State by 13 at home. Purdue also did not lose at home, therefore did not suffer any bad losses at home like Louisville’s loss to Drexel. I do think that one could make a strong case for Louisville getting Purdue’s 3 seed, but I also see why the committee feels differently.
It’s no secret that true road wins are important to the committee, as are bad losses in a weak non-conference schedule. My argument is that Louisville’s inferior road record was more important than their superior record vs. teams who are Top 4 seeds and when compared with the 4 seeds, Louisville’s non-conference SOS was significantly worse (more cupcakes).
by UL is my hot hot sex on Mar 15, 2011 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty happy
I think even if Faried gets his, Louisville beats Morehead by a comfortable margin. I’m not as confident that Vandy survives an underseeded Richmond team, but assuming they do, we matchup well with Vandy. They like to run, so the tempo will be one Louisville feels most comfortable operating within. But we plays solid defense and theirs is suspect. I think Vandy’s especially vulnerable to Siva driving and either finishing or dish to KSTK or PK for the bombs.
Really, it doesn’t matter who we play until Kansas. As long as this team plays with the same heart they’ve shown all along, they’ll take care of business. It’ll be a tall order to beat Kansas, but Kansas usually has one dud game in their run. It could happen!
Kansas
I’m just worried it will be a virtual road game against Kansas. I hope a LOT of season ticket holders are able to make it there. Go Cards!
by cardcorefan on Mar 14, 2011 7:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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