Analysis of ESPN's Final Bracketology Predictions
by Quinn1979 on Mar 14, 2011 7:26 AM EDT
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PrintESPN didn't have a ton of success predicting the field this year. Here's a summary of the analysis:
1. Accurately predicted 65 of the 68 teams (95.6%). Or, more appropriately, accurately predicted 34 of the 37 at-large teams (91.9%).
2. Missed the selections of Georgia, VCU and UAB by predicting Colorado, Virginia Tech and St. Mary's.
3. Of the 65 teams that were accurately picked, ESPN (1) predicted the correct seed 30 times, (2) was 1 seed off 25 times, (3) was 2 seeds off 7 times, (4) was 3 seeds off 2 times and (5) was 4 seeds off once.
4. Biggest seeding error prediction was Utah St. as an 8-seed (instead of a 12-seed). Next biggest misses were Michigan (predicted to be an 11-seed, but came in as an 8-seed) and Missouri (predicted to be an 8-seed, but came in as an 11-seed).
5. Nailed two matchups exactly right (each from the MWC): SDSU/Northern Colorado and BYU/Wofford.
6. Amazingly, for the seven Big 10 teams in the tournament, ESPN accurately predicted the seeds of two teams (OSU and Wisconsin), but predicted worse seeds for the five other teams. As mentioned, Michigan was predicted to be 3 seed-lines worse than they did and also Illinois and Penn St. were predicted to be 2 seed-lines worse than they did. Purdue and Michigan St. were 1 seed-line off. What conference is the Chairman of the selection committee from?
7. Unusually, of the top 4 seed-lines in each region (i.e. the top 16 teams), ESPN missed HALF of the seeds of those teams. Missed one 1-seed, two 2-seeds, three(!) 3-seeds and two 4-seeds.
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Not defending ~the Mecca of sports~
But honestly-who could have correctly predicted the field this year? Lots of stuff to scratch your head over…ND getting bumped off a 1 seed. Florida (???) as a 2. Conn and syracuse getting 3 seeds over us…etc
by twistedwedge on Mar 14, 2011 8:15 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
'Cuse????
Let me get this right. We beat ’Cuse head to head. We finished higher in the BE standings than ’Cuse. We went further in the BE tournament than ’Cuse.
So they’re a three and we’re a four? It would seem 1 + 1 may not equal 2.
'Cuse was bad but..
Florida is clearly the most ridiculously seeded top 4 seed. They lost to Jacksonville and got beat down by UK yesterday. I thought Louisville was locked into a 3 seed and was playing for a 2 seed in the Big East championship game. Seems to me UK and UofL got screwed. They are clearly the best 4 seeds but somehow get put in the toughest regions with the two top #1 seeds. Makes no sense…
by Danny Duberstein on Mar 14, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
There is a huge advantage to being a 3 seed versus 4 seed this year.
Getting past any of the 2 seeds this year (ND, SDSU, Florida, UNC) to the elite eight is a MUCH easier trip that getting past any of the 1 seeds…or, at least, past OSU or Kansas like we (and UK) would have to do.
And, I agree, seemingly UL and UK are the best 4 seeds in the same region as the top 1 seeds. Mystery.
Stout Out!
Additional Big 10 Bias
— The 7 Big 10 teams are strategically placed, so that all 7 can make the Elite 8, and in fact the only for-sure Elite 8 vacant spot for the Big 10 is opposite of Ohio State in the East.
— On the contrary, the 11 Big East teams are not nearly so well dispersed. In spite of having 11 Big East teams, the Elite 8 can only include a maximum of 7 teams from the Big East. That is, 4 Big East teams are up against OSU in the East Region; and the 2 Big East teams in the West are both in the same Elite 8 group. The only region where the Big East is not guaranteed a loss prior to the Elite 8 is the Southeast.
Or, said a different way:
— There are no possible Big 10 head-to-head matchups until Round 4 (Elite 8 games playing for a spot in the Final Four).
— There are 4 possible Big East head-to-head matchups in Rounds 2 and 3, including: Cincinnati vs. UConn (Round 2) and Marquette vs Syracuse (Round 2); Villanova vs. West Virginia (Round 3) and Georgetown vs. Notre Dame (Round 3).
— The Big 10 can be 21-0 after Round 3, while the Big East has two guaranted losses after Round 2.
I believe the committee used to space them such that conference opponents wouldn't meet until the Elite 8.
However, 11 seeds makes that near impossible.
by CardinalDude on Mar 14, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
near?
You can’t have 11 teams in the Elite Eight. Ergo if all the Big East teams get into the Sweet 16, then there absolutely have to be at least three games pitting BEast against BEast. But it doesn’t have to happen in round 2.
"Screech, you CAN'T elope!"
"Who are you calling a cantaloupe, you melonhead?"
by rickmbari on Mar 14, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
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