FanPost

Analysis of ESPN's Final Bracketology Predictions

ESPN didn't have a ton of success predicting the field this year.  Here's a summary of the analysis:

1.  Accurately predicted 65 of the 68 teams (95.6%).  Or, more appropriately, accurately predicted 34 of the 37 at-large teams (91.9%).  

2.  Missed the selections of Georgia, VCU and UAB by predicting Colorado, Virginia Tech and St. Mary's.

3.  Of the 65 teams that were accurately picked, ESPN (1) predicted the correct seed 30 times, (2) was 1 seed off 25 times, (3) was 2 seeds off 7 times, (4) was 3 seeds off 2 times and (5) was 4 seeds off once.

4.  Biggest seeding error prediction was Utah St. as an 8-seed (instead of a 12-seed).  Next biggest misses were Michigan (predicted to be an 11-seed, but came in as an 8-seed) and Missouri (predicted to be an 8-seed, but came in as an 11-seed).

5.  Nailed two matchups exactly right (each from the MWC):  SDSU/Northern Colorado and BYU/Wofford.

6.  Amazingly, for the seven Big 10 teams in the tournament, ESPN accurately predicted the seeds of two teams (OSU and Wisconsin), but predicted worse seeds for the five other teams.  As mentioned, Michigan was predicted to be 3 seed-lines worse than they did and also Illinois and Penn St. were predicted to be 2 seed-lines worse than they did.  Purdue and Michigan St. were 1 seed-line off.  What conference is the Chairman of the selection committee from?

7.  Unusually, of the top 4 seed-lines in each region (i.e. the top 16 teams), ESPN missed HALF of the seeds of those teams.  Missed one 1-seed, two 2-seeds, three(!) 3-seeds and two 4-seeds.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Card Chronicle

You must be a member of Card Chronicle to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Card Chronicle. You should read them.

Join Card Chronicle

You must be a member of Card Chronicle to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Card Chronicle. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker