FanPost

Seeding

I've seen a lot of debate on here or Twitter about which seed we want (eg, 3, 4, 5 or 6) or which #1 we would want in our region if we're the 4/5.  To me, it is a no-brainer:  all we should really care about is the danger level of our first round opponent.  And because of that, we CLEARLY want either the 3 or 4.  

I saw in a recent Bracketology that we're 5-seed playing the winner of Michigan St. or Richmond.  The  4-seed in our projected region, Florida, gets to play #13 Oakland.  I put the odds of us beating either Richmond or Michigan State at around 55% (well, maybe <50% for Michigan St.) while the odds of us beating Oakland are probably 90%.  Conclusion:  MASSIVE difference by being a 4-seed.

I think the biggest dropoff in quality BY FAR in the tournament is between the 12-seed line (which are typically good) and the 13-seeds (which are typically terrible [except for Tulsa in 2003]).  The advantage of being a 4-seed as opposed to a 5-seed is WAAAAY bigger than the advantage of being a 5-seed instead of a 6-seed.  It's critical for UofL to get to a 4-seed.



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