Seems I've not been that far off in my projections, but I'm still revising this post from about three weeks ago. I was about 75% we'd lose last nights game - and in reality, we should have. Thanks to the block and runback and inexplicable fumble by GS though, I was pleasantly surprised we won. Sometimes that's how the ball bounces and, as the saying goes, "if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, (WVU) would have a Merry Christmas". If I recall correctly, there was a game or two that we dominated all stats but still lost as well... C'est Lavi.
WVU was a signature win and Luck doesn't play too much into the bowl projections/acceptance to my knowledge, but the losses to FIU and Marshall might significantly hurt us. I think we may need to win out to be bowl eligible due to those two losses... Am I completely off base there? We can win out, or we could almost as easily lose out, but I think we finish STRONG at 8/4 and 6/1. BCS Bowl? If we go, we could lose big, but it would be a good experience and some serious motivation for our young guys once they become upper seniors. Here's to hoping Cinci loses two and we win out.
Next week, we face Pitt. We OWE THEM TOO for being a primary suspect in this whole realignment mess. Thus far, we've been able to "do work" against those who have done us harm - either directly or indirectly. I think we can continue that against Pitt, but they scare me as much as USF…
When I wrote that post, I saw the Pitt game being about 50/50. Now that we have the offense running much better and actually moving the ball, I’m about 65/35 and am going to predict about a 10 point victory with UL having 28 to Pitt’s 16. Our D didn’t play too well against WVU – OR WVU’s O is just that much better than any we’ve faced to date. Honestly, it seems like yesterday’s performance could have been a combination of both statements in all reality. One area that hasn’t changed since that post is that we STILL need to be able to finish better from the red zone and not sputter/stall/stop. In the end, I think we should be able to generate at least 28. RU’s D was the stingiest we’ve faced from the Big East and we put up 16 on them. We did this at a time when we were not able to move the ball as much as we have of late as our guys come into their own/learn the system/mature/grow/whatever. The RU game was also about the time that the O started to really turn the corner and come together and get the job done. We’ve seemingly continued to improve drastically week by week as well. On the defensive side of the ball, well I just don’t see Pitt being able to put more than 20 on us and think 16 is a respectable score for them.
The following week, we face UCONN. I don’t see anything much to convince me that my previous prediction of the outcome of this game needs any significant changes. I still think it will be a fairly easy win. Their offense appears to be the worst of any in the Big East to this point. Things can change though – SEE LOUISVILLE’s 1st several weeks. I still don’t see them scoring more than 10 on us. With us moving the ball much better and continuing to improve, I see us scoring about 35 on them. UL 35, CONN 10.
Lastly, we face USF and this is the game that honestly scares me the most of the three remaining. SURE they’re last in the league currently, but with the exception of Pitt, they have played everyone else they’ve faced in the Big East VERY CLOSE – to include mutual opponents in Cinci and RU. We face them at their house, and they’re going to have a LOT to prove and to make up some ground in the Big East/for a bowl appearance to finish about where they were projected to finish. I’m about 55/45 on this one with a final score of UL 32 USF 28.