• If all 6 of the remaining games have a 50/50 probability of either team winning, Louisville has a 56% chance of making the BCS and is the most likely team to make it.  In other words, Louisville will make the BCS in 36 of the 64 scenarios involving the remaining 6 games.  Below are the probabilities of each team making the BCS in the "50/50 chance" format  for the remaining 6 games:  

1. Louisville (56%),

2. Rutgers (19%)

3. Pitt (9%)

4. Cincinnati (9%)

5. WVU (6%)

• However, it makes more sense to probability-weight the outcomes of the remaining games.  As such, I've assessed the following probabilities to the remaining games:

1.  Pitt @ WVU  - [60% WVU]

2.  Rutgers @ UConn  - [60% Rutgers]

3.  Cincinnati @ Syracuse  - [60% Cincinnati]

4.  WVU @ USF  - [60% WVU]

5.  Syracuse @ Pitt  - [60% Pitt]

6.  UConn @ Cincinnati  - [60% Cincinnati]

• Based on these probability weightings, Louisville remains the favorite to make the BCS, but has its probability lowered to 49%.  Below are the probability-weighted chances of each team making the BCS:

1. Louisville (49%),

2. Rutgers (23%)

3. WVU (13%)

4. Cincinnati (9%)

5. Pitt (6%)

Below are the specific scenarios for each team to make the BCS:

Louisville

1.     If WVU beats Pitt, Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

OR

2.     If Pitt beats WVU, (a) Pitt must lose to Syracuse (@Pitt) AND (b) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).

Rutgers

1.     (a) Rutgers must beat UConn (@UConn) AND (b) WVU must lose one of their remaining two games (vs. Pitt or @USF) AND (c) Cincinnati and/or Pittsburgh must win both of their remaining two games AND (d) Rutgers must remain higher than Cincinnati, Pittsburgh or Louisville in the BCS standings (depending on the tie scenario).

WVU

1.     (a) WVU must win both of their remaining games (vs. Pitt and @USF) AND (b) Cincinnati must win both of their remaining games (@Syracuse and vs. UConn) AND (c) WVU must remain higher than Cincinnati and Louisville in the BCS standings (depending on the tie scenario).

Cincinnati

1.     (a) Cincinnati must win BOTH of their remaining games (@Syracuse and vs. UConn) AND (b) WVU must lose one of their remaining two games (vs. Pitt or @USF) AND (c) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn).

Pitt

1.     (a) Pitt must win BOTH of their remaining games (@WVU and vs. Syracuse) AND (b) Rutgers must lose to UConn (@UConn) AND (c) Cincinnati must lose one of their remaining two games (@Syracuse or vs. UConn).