I read with great interest the variety of scenarios that UofL has to make it to a BCS game. However, I think it is much more complicated. I'll try to be as succinct as possible. There are seven games left in the Big East season (listed below) and they all matter:
1. Louisville @ USF
2. Pitt @ WVU
3. Rutgers @ UConn
4. Cincinnati @ Syracuse
5. WVU @ USF
6. Syracuse @ Pitt
7. UConn @ Cincinnati
Because there are 7 games left, that means that there are 128 different scenarios how they can turn out (2 to the 7th power).
Here's a basic summary of the relevant facts:
1. Big East Tiebreakers: (1) If two teams tie, tiebreaker is H2H result;
(2) If three teams tie, it goes to a mini-conference where the best record wins. If still tied in the mini-conference, the highest BCS ranking wins;
(3) If four teams tie, it goes to a mini-conference where the best record wins. If still tied in the mini-conference, the highest BCS ranking wins (among the teams with the best records in the mini-conference).
(4) The Big East is SILENT if there is more than a four-team tie.
2. UConn: UConn is mathematically eliminated from the BCS, however they can still tie for the conference crown and can cause chaos in the Big East BCS process.
3. Up to Six Teams Can Tie: There are two scenarios where SIX teams can tie for the conference championship with four wins each.
4. BCS Standings: The BCS standings play a huge role in the Big East tiebreakers and, as such, some teams have a leg up. According to ebhardwick, the Big East's BCS standings are (1) WVU , (2) Cincinnati , (3) Rutgers , (4) Louisville , (5) Pitt  and (6) UConn [n/a because they cannot win any mini-conference tiebreakers]. However, keep in mind that Cincinnati's BCS ranking will go down with their loss to Rutgers and many of the tie scenarios based on upcoming games involve future losses by most of these teams.
Here's the bottom line:
- If all 7 of the remaining games have a 50/50 probability of either team winning, UofL has a 30% chance of making the BCS and is the most likely team to make it. In other words, UofL will make the BCS in 39 of the 128 scenarios involving the remaining 7 games. Below are the probabilities of each team making the BCS in the "50/50 chance" format for the remaining 7 games:
1. Louisville (30%),
2. WVU (23%)
3. Rutgers (22%)
4. Cincinnati (16%)
5. Pitt (9%)
6. UConn (0%).
- UofL really needs to win against USF. If they win the USF game, only 64 scenarios remain and UofL makes the BCS in 36 of those scenarios (56%). On the flip side, if UofL loses to USF, there are only 3 of the remaining 64 scenarios where they can make the BCS.
- It makes more sense to probability-weight the outcomes of the remaining games. As such, I've assessed the following probabilities to the remaining games:
1. Louisville @ USF - [50% / 50%]
2. Pitt @ WVU - [60% WVU]
3. Rutgers @ UConn - [60% Rutgers]
4. Cincinnati @ Syracuse - [60% Cincinnati]
5. WVU @ USF - [60% WVU]
6. Syracuse @ Pitt - [60% Pitt]
7. UConn @ Cincinnati - [60% Cincinnati]
- Based on these probability weightings, WVU actually becomes the favorite to make the BCS. Below are the probability-weighted chances of each team making the BCS:
1. WVU (31%),
2. Louisville (25%)
3. Rutgers (21%)
4. Cincinnati (17%)
5. Pitt (6%)
6. UConn (0%).
- Having said, that if UofL beats USF, we have a 49% chance of making the BCS in the probability-weighted scenarios.
- The Bottom, Bottom Line is that UofL has a 25%-30% chance to make the BCS.
ATTENTION! Stop reading here unless you are a nerdy-type who wants additional detail:
- If you care to see my spreadsheet, direct message me your email address and I'll send it to you.
- if you'd like me to adjust any of my probability assumptions, let me know and I can model those changes quickly.
- I am working under the assumption that if there is a 5- or 6-team tie, that the tiebreaker goes to the team with the highest BCS rankings among teams with the best mini-conference record. Reminder: the Big East is silent on this.
- I am probably giving Cincinnati too much credit because I've kept this analysis consistent with ebhardwick's view where Cincinnati wins ties because their BCS (#29) is higher than Rutgers (#34). However, Cincinnati's BCS is surely to drop after today's loss.
- Below are the two paths to a 6-way tie for the Big East championship:
- There are two scenarios which create a 5-team tie with a mini-conference that still produces a 5-team tie with each team 2-2 in the mini-conference: