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Scenarios for Louisville to win the Big East and go to the BCS

Similar to the turning of the flop in a poker game, in a matter of seconds, the odds for U of L to head back to Miami improved dramatically. Here are new and improved scenarios for U of L to go to the Orange Bowl:

Scenario #1

The easiest way for the Cards to go to a BCS is for them to win next week and for every other team to lose. So U of L over USF, WVU over Pitt, but lose to USF the next week. Rutgers loses next weeek to UConn and Cincy loses either of their last two games to Cuse or UConn.

Final Standings

UL 5-2

WVU 4-3

RU 4-3

Pitt 3-4

Cincy 4-3 (or 3-4 if they lose both games)

UConn 3-4 (or 4-3 if they beat Cincy)

USF 2-5

Cuse 2-5 (or 3-4 if they beat Cincy)

U of L goes as the only 5-2 team left standing.

Scenario #2A

It gets dicier if all of the top four teams win out

U of L over USF

WVU over Pitt and USF

Cincy over Cuse and UConn

RU over UConn

This creates a four-way tie for first with all teams at 5-2 and would create a four-team mini-conference.

Mini-Conference Standings

UL 2-1 (BCS 63)

WVU 2-1 (BCS 27)

RU 1-2

Cincy 1-2

WVU gets the bid with the higher BCS ranking, despite UL's win over WVU.

Scenario #2B

Say UL, WVU, and Cincy win out, but RU loses to UConn. That would create a three-way tie and create a three-team mini-conference.

Mini-Conference Standings

UL 1-1 (BCS 63)

WVU 1-1 (BCS 27)

Cincy 1-1 (BCS 29)

As of right now the bid would go to WVU.

Scenario #2C

Say UL, WVU, and RU win out, but Cincy loses a third conference game.

UL 2-0

WVU 1-1

RU 0-2

UL gets the bid.

Scenario #2D

Say UL and WVU both win out, but RU and Cincy both get their third conference loss. UL holds the tiebreaker over WVU.

Scenario #3A

Things get even more dicier with a WVU loss.

U of L over USF

Pitt over WVU and Cuse

RU over UConn

Cincy over UConn and Cuse

This would create a four-team mini-conference.

Standings

U of L 1-2

RU 2-1 (BCS 34)

Pitt 1-2

Cincy 2-1 (BCS 29)

As of right now the bid would go to Cincy.

Scenario #3B

Say UL, RU, and Pitt win out, but Cincy gets the third conference loss.

Three-team Mini-Conference Standings

UL 1-1 (BCS 63)

RU 1-1 (BCS 34)

Pitt 1-1 (BCS 65)

As of right now the bid would go to Rutgers.

Scenario #3C

UL, RU, and Cincy win out, Pitt beats WVU, but loses to Cuse.

3-team Mini-Conference

UL 1-1 (BCS 63)

RU 1-1 (BCS 34)

Cincy 1-1 (BCS 29)

As of right now, Cincy gets the bid.

Scenario #3C

Say UL and RU win out, Pitt beats WVU, but loses to Cuse and Cincy gets a third conference loss.

UL gets the bid with the tiebreaker over Rutgers.

Scenario #3D

UL and Pitt both win out, but Rutgers and Cincy both get a 3 in the loss column.

Pitt gets the bid over UL.

Scenario #3E

UL and Cincy win out, Pitt beats WVU, loses to Cuse and RU loses to UConn.

Cincy holds the tiebreaker over UL.

Scenario #3F

UL wins out. Pitt beats WVU, loses to Cuse, RU and Cincy both get third loss.

UL is the only 5-2 team and gets the bid.

Scenario #4

Let's say things get crazy and UL loses to USF (diciest?). This would give them a third loss in conference play. The only way that UL could still get the BCS bid is if every other team has a third loss. Rutgers would have to lose to UConn. Pitt would have to beat WVU and lose to Cuse. Cincy would have to get a third loss.

#4A

UL, RU, WVU, Cincy, and Pitt all end with 4-3. The mini-conference would still be tied with every team holding a 2-2 record. As of right now, WVU has the highest BCS ranking at 27.

#4B

Say WVU loses both of their last two games and UL, RU, Cincy, and Pitt all end up 4-3. The result would be the same as Scenario #3A.

#4C

Say Cincy loses both of their last two games and UL, RU, WVU, and Pitt all end up 4-3. As a result UConn would also end up 4-3.

Five-Team Mini-Conference Standings

UL 3-1 (BCS 63)

RU 1-3

WVU 2-2

Pitt 3-1 (BCS 65)

UConn 1-3

Even though UL lost to Pittsburgh, as of right now, they would get the bid over Pitt due to their higher BCS ranking.

In every other scenario, a 5-2 team would get the bid over UL.

Once again in conclusion, let's go Cards over USF and lets go WVU over Pitt. This gives the Cards the best chance at a BCS bowl bid. We also would prefer if Cincinasti (see what I did there) loses a third conference game because that would help us out with the mini-conference standings. UConn getting hot down the stretch would be excellent for UL because they would take Rutgers and Cincinnati both out of contention for the Big East crown.

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