After spending the entire evening crunching numbers and figuring out scenarios, I have found out that U of L is still in the hunt for a BCS bid. Although the chances are pretty slim, since Cincinnati lost to WVU, we are still in the BCS hunt if Cincinnati loses to Rutgers. If Cincy wins out, we are screwed.
And obviously if Cincinnati has a meltdown and loses 2 out of the next 3, we have an even better shot. But it would depend heavily on who wins the Backyard Brawl. Obviously in every scenario, UL has to win out.
So here are the scenarios where UL wins the Big East BCS automatic bid:
Scenario 1: UC loses to RU beats UConn and Cuse
WVU beats Pitt in the Backyard Brawl.
The Big East BCS bylaws state that a 4-way tie goes to a mini-conference where the standings are determined by wins and losses against teams within the mini-conference. In this scenario the standings in the mini-conference are:
UL gets the bid with the tiebreaker over WVU. In this scenario, our win over WVU helps us tremendously.
UPDATE: Upon further review, there is a possibility that we would still lose out to WVU in this scenario if WVU gets back into the BCS standings. Their higher ranking in the standings would give them the bid even though UL holds the tiebreaker.
However, if Pitt beats WVU, Pitt replaces WVU in the mini-conference. If that happens the standings in the mini-conference are:
Surprisingly, Rutgers would get the bid with their win over Cincinnati. Our loss to Pitt screws us royally.
Let's say Cincinnati beats Rutgers. But loses to either UConn or Syracuse. Either team doesn't matter, it creates the same outcome. Once again, the third team in the mini-conference depends on the winner of WVU-Pitt
Mini-conference 3A: (WVU over Pitt)
Mini-conference 3B: (Pitt over WVU)
In 3B, Cincy gets the bid.
In 3A, the Big East bylaws state that in the event of a mini-conference tie, the team that is highest in the BCS rankings would get the bid. I would predict that WVU would have the higher ranking if they were to win out and Cincy were to lose to either UConn or Cuse. But they would both most definitely be ranked higher than UL with our early season missteps.
Cincy loses 2 out of 3. They would drop out of contention and there would be four tie breaker scenarios.
(One of Cincy's losses is to Rutgers)
Scenario 4A: (WVU over Pitt)
Scenario 4B: (Pitt over WVU)
UL gets it in 4A. Whoever has a higher BCS ranking gets it in 4B.
(Neither of Cincy's losses is to Rutgers) Only 5-2 teams are UL and winner of Backyard Brawl.
Scenario 4C: (WVU over Pitt)
Ville gets tiebreaker over WVU.
Scenario 4D: (Pitt over WVU)
Pitt gets tiebreaker over UL.
In conclusion: Let's root for all our might for UL to win out, for Rutgers to give Cincinnati a two game losing streak, and for WVU to dominate the Backyard Brawl. If the stars align and everything falls perfectly into place, we can book our tickets to Miami.