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Looking Forward


One rule of thumb that you have to remember when you project for the future is that guys who are role players early in their career rarely, if ever, turn into PTPers later.  My man, Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) has done statistical analysis on this fact and proves that it is extremely rare for a guy to change from being a bench player to being a team's go to guy. 

The one exception is a guy who gets buried on the bench as a freshman can morph into a stud as a soph, a la Earl Clark.  Look at Jerry and Edgar as perfect examples of this theory.  They are the same players today that they were 4 yrs ago.

With that said, I don't see any of our upperclassmen transforming into Larry O'Bannon over the summer.  Preston, as much as I love you it looks like you're heading to a Brandon Jenkins career.  Kuric, Swop, and TJ may be solid role players next year but I just don't see any averaging more than 10-11ppg next year in a best case scenario.

This all means our entire season next year will hinge on the development of Siva and Buckles.  I'm eliminating Marra because I just don't see the confidence in his game that you need to be a next level star.  On top of that he clearly did get a chance to shine this year and rarely took advantage.  Also, since we've already seen consistent flashes of what Siva does (and if he just gets more minutes he will be a star) it will really depend on what Rock can become.  He defintiely has the size and athleticism to be a consistent double-double guy, but does he have the mental fortitude to handle the pressure Rick puts on his starters.  If he can fill he gaping hole left by Earl Clark @ the 4 that will allow a lot of other gaps to be filled by other players in other spots.

Its clear to me now also that the Samardo-TJ tandem isnt going to work.  They both do the same things and don't compliment each other very well.  What I think the Cal game showed us is that maybe we should have been looking for the Samardo-Buckles duo.  Rock's quickness and motor makes up for what Samardo lacks in athleticism and toughness.  I think those two make the most sense together, much more than Samardo and Swop or Samardo and TJ.  I also think a frontline of Samardo, Rock, and Swop makes the back end of our zone a whole lot tougher than when we had Delk or Kuric back there this year.  We were woefully small and unathletic on defense this year, anything that we can do to get longer and more agile the better.  Offensively, Buckles finishes at the rim as well as anyone on the team, is a much better passer than TJ, and Swop can be as good of an outside shooter as anyone who played the 3 this year.

One other aspect of the past few seasons that I think needs to be addressed this summer is the lack of a definite position for many players.  Maybe it was because we didn't have a true PG but doesn't it feel like we always have guys playing out of their natural position.  I mean who looks at Kyle Kuric (while he's crashing your cousin's wedding) and think I bet that guy plays forward for an elite college basketball team. 

Rick, take some notes here, Kuric is a guard, Marra is a guard, Swop is a small forward, if you play them out of position they are going to get beat by the guys on the other team that is playing his natural position.  Woud you rather have an weak undersized powerforward or a 6'7" small forward who can knock down the 3 and defend from the rim to the boundry.  Would you like a white 6'3" white guy boxing out the opponent's center (because your center thinks rebounding is below him) or would you like to have the league's best rebounding guard coming off the bench to spell the league's best on-ball defender. Next year we will have plenty of moving parts, my question is will Rick finally put them together in the right order to get the maximum result.

With that said, here's my favorite game to play (much like mike's if the BET started today game):

What will next year's rotation look like?

1- Peyton Siva, Russel Smith, Elisha Justice

2- Preston Knowles, Kyle Kuric, Mike Marra

3- Jared Swopshire, Justin Coleman, Richie Phares

4- Rakeem Buckles, Gorgui Sy Dieng*, Stephan Van Treese

5- Samardo Samuels, Terrance Jennings, George Goode

*getting Dieng has to be Pitino's main objective before he heads to the Caribbean.  If we don't get Dieng then Van Treese definitely seems primed to become our junkyard dog rebounder/shot blocker off the bench.

This lineup also allows Preston, Kuric and Marra to rotate to keep each other fresh (and even allows Preston to spell Siva at PG as well).  It also opens up the logjam @ the 4/5 position and allows for everyone to fit in where their skills best allow them.  The last great issue is what if Justin Coleman is so good that we can't keep him off the court.  If that's our biggest problem then we'll probably be talking about our sweet 16 opponent at this point next year instead of waiting for Wayne Blackshear to show up save the day.

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Wow

I totally left Chris Smith out of that rotation. He would be the backup behind Preston at the 2. As much as I hate it, our boys Kuric and Marra are going to have a hard time getting of the bench unless they can shoot the lights out when they get on the court.

by drhustle on Mar 21, 2010 12:29 AM EDT reply actions  

I was going to say...

Also, I could see Rick throwing Preston out there with Marra/Kuric for stretches. That looks like a reallly deep team again, but we need to find a go-to guy.

by Chris Redman is my hero on Mar 21, 2010 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm done with the predicting for now

I really thought this season would deliver some more thrills, and of course with the two Cuse games it did, but overall the year was disappointing and at times excruciating to watch. When you see the kind of team we had and the things they were capable of doing — only to watch them go out and get taken to the woodshed by teams like Western Carolina, Charlotte, Seton Hall, St John’s, Cincinnati, California, etc (damn, there were alot of those) — it just kills your faith in the heart of this squad.

I’d like to say next year’s team looks like it shows more promise. With the subtraction of headcase Sosa and Jerry ‘the ghost’, we should be stronger. But, it terms of team chemistry, desire, and heart — who friggin knows. If 22,000 screaming fans inside a brand spankin’ new, state of the art arena ain’t enough to get you fired up, nothing will.

________________________________________________
~LK
www.myspace.com/lordkayoss
www.youtube.com/lordkayossrippro
www.welcometomynightmare.tk

by LORD KAYOSS on Mar 21, 2010 5:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Bumpage

That has probably been the most frustrating thing over the last few years, forcing players into positions they aren’t supposed to be in. I know JDP was 6’8’’, but the guy simply was not an inside player. Earl ended up doing well at the 4, but it took awhile.

That was the frustrating thing about our zone – last year T-WIll could rebound from the 3 because he was a freak physically. This year, how many times did you see Kuric or Delk getting manhandled by the other team’s big guys on rebounds?

Now, the zone is designed more to prevent 3s and Delk and Kuric were better at guarding the wing, which is why the SS and TJ experiment didn’t really work.

But I would love a Siva-Kuric-Swop-Rock-SS lineup. I think you could rebound out of the zone and both Swop/Rock could guard the wings on the 3. Also, Swop and Rock are both long enough to pass over guys to feed SS down low.

The biggest problem with that line-up is that only Kuric/Siva are good 3 point shooters – Swop has hit some big ones, true, but I don’t think Rick would use that line-up unless Buckles develops into a real three point weapon in the offseason.

But of course, all of this is moot because the off season is always more of a roller coaster than that the real season, and with rumors already about Pitino leaving, and uncertainty about who is coming back or whether Coleman will qualify, this off season should be no different.

by CardsFan922 on Mar 21, 2010 10:28 AM EDT reply actions  

love this breakdown

I’m not sure I buy into the once-a-bench-bench-player-never-a-go-to-guy theory. I think it holds water to a degree, not everyone is destined for the NBA, but a team doesn’t need to be completely stocked with NBA grade athletes, someone has to come off the bench. Inour case it probably is Kuric and Marra, but both of those guys showed how good they can be when they get solid minutes. And I absolutely agree that they will be better when they are playing at the 2 spot. Don’t forget that Pitino thinks Marra is the best three point shooter he’s ever coached, including Donovan. So certainly there is great potential there, though I can’t predict whether or not he’ll live up to it.
I also think Swop developed tremendously over the year and will be fantastic at the 3.
Also agree that Buckles will be key next year.
I’m happy with the squad. While I agree that they didn’t live up to my expectations all the time this season, they still made the dance and gave us a solid season. I’m hoping Pitino isn’t planning on bouncing, and I doubt Sam has showed enough to go pro, and I can’t see him going elsewhere to play, he’s still our marquee guy. Siva is going to be a badass next year. I’m excited.

e

by ericdedwar on Mar 21, 2010 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

What this team needs in the offseason

is speed training. Our foot speed killed us on defense this year.

Good post. Assuming Dieng commits, I wouldn’t expect much from him next year. He seems athletic and he has good size, but he’s a project that probably won’t really develop until he’s a junior

by Centre24 on Mar 21, 2010 11:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Fantastic post

Thanks for restoring my hope for the future.

Still not totally sold on Buckles. I mean, I think he has tremendous potential, but I don’t think we can expect 20 ppg from him quite yet. Is performance in the Cal game was more a function of them focusing on Samardo and kind of leaving him free. If he really steps up like that consistently, I imagine defenses will adjust.

by Phauz on Mar 21, 2010 12:54 PM EDT reply actions  

its about having more than one low post option

if we had three guys shooting 40% from the 3pt line this year, it would have made a huge difference. But if SS is getting doubled, and Rock can produce, it forces the other team not to double SS.

by irish2705 on Mar 21, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Swop

If you want Swop to play the 3 spot then Pitino is going to have to work on his foot speed. Right now he can’t guard the 3 out on the wing. He’s too slow a foot. He has the upper body of a 3 and the feet of a 4. Classic ’tweener.

I heard Pitino’s post game with Valvano and he stated that he’s got to get the team’s feet faster. I just don’t see how you can wave a magic wand and change a kid’s athletic ability. You can teach him defensive stance and technique, but if you add 20 more pounds to Swop’s frame, then you’re just going to make his feet slower than they already are.

If Coleman is explosive on offense then he needs to start at the 3 as a freshman. Swopshire can shot the 3 but overall he’s not explosive, nor aggressive.

by JMC1 on Mar 21, 2010 1:30 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't know

Andree McGee got significantly faster b/t junior and senior year. It will be interesting to see how they develop. I’m optimistic

by Centre24 on Mar 21, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes he did. Because he finally got into shape and dropped some weight. He was always a little pudgy, until his senior year.

by JMC1 on Mar 21, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

im not buying it, not yet

playing swop at the 4 IS his best fit at 6’9" 210+lbs. he need to get stronger so he can stop pulling down rebounds to only get the ball snatched from him. he can be a pat patterson type (maybe not by november), and we could find ourselves a real match-up nightmare if he keeps working on his 3s and footspeed too. i think buckles will grow to be a great boost from the bench at the 4, keeping the zone active and the offense fresh, and not force buckles into a tough position.
i think kuric should start at the 3 just because of the offense pitino runs. he basically looks to run with no true point guard, 2 fast shooting guards (usually smaller), 1 small forward (usually an athletic larger shooting guard), 1 shot-blocker type power forward, 1 offensive-machine power forward, and (unless he could’ve landed fab melo) no true center. he plays fast and frustrating on defense with his full-court presses and extending 2-3 zone, and inside-out in the half-court offense through one of the power forwards.
the cards arent loaded at any particular position unless you leave another position short-handed, and i think pitino knows what he’s doing (most of the time). i think they will be much better next year without so much youth on the team, and its even more exciting to know that the year after— when UofL brings in the #1 recruiting class— we will have only lost preston and samardo to graduation and nba futures respectively. can you even imagine that year? banners will be broken in QUICKLY in the new arena, without a doubt.

by BIGG RUSS on Mar 21, 2010 2:49 PM EDT reply actions  

betting on the come

There’s no such thing as “without a doubt” when you’re counting on two years’ recruiting classes to come in. Injuries, changes of heart, academic issues… too many unknowns.

by rickmbari on Mar 21, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

first of all

Swop is not 6’9" 210. He may be 6’8" with the fro but there is no way he’s over 200lbs at this point. And there is no way that he will ever morph into Pat Patterson. That was the whole point of my post. Anyone who is waiting for guys like Swop to become Patterson or Kuric to become Andy Rautins is just kidding themselves.

You were right on with your assessment of Pitino’s offense, but do we all really think that he WANTS to run this offense. I think he’s been stuck with this offense due to a lack of a creator at the PG position. I say now that we have Siva, other players should shift to their natural position and see if the whole team can become greater than the sum of the parts.

by drhustle on Mar 21, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

recruiting

We are paying the price for a couple of years of poor recruiting. That’s it in a nutshell.

by cbcard on Mar 21, 2010 4:55 PM EDT reply actions  

granted nothing cataclysmic happens...

my theory is still true. you cant lie to me and say “we will be a major disappointment in 2 years when we have a stellar freshman class, siva and buckles as juniors, jennings swopshire and kuric as seniors, and a few role palyers we recruited along the way.” that would be insane. even at its worst, we would be a super-deep team that would have a chance at a sweet 16 run. there’s a reason why we pay pitino large amounts of money, and its not for his fashion advice.

by BIGG RUSS on Mar 21, 2010 5:23 PM EDT reply actions  

as listed on espn's cardinal roster

jared swopshire
6’8" (WOW, my bad, one inch…)
220LBS

and we all know of pitino’s plans to bulk him up, so that number will only increase. and by pat-pat type, i mean nova’s king type. good sized 4 with the mid-range and 3 to cause matchup problems who can still rebound. i dont literally mean transforming into pat-pat (first round draft pick, a little much dont you think?), just in case there was any confusion… and how in the world will kuric get to rautins status? who even said that?
i seriously dont agree to moving swop to the 3 because— though they might make the back of the 2-3 zone more physical— it will make the extending match-up zone incredibly slow, not at all what pitino preaches. he wants deflections, steals… not the opposition lining up on the ends waiting for wide-open threes.

by BIGG RUSS on Mar 21, 2010 5:50 PM EDT reply actions  

question

What about Chris Smith?

CLM RED 9

by Redtilldead on Mar 22, 2010 12:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Who is that Justice guy?

Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.

by TheRealSlimShady on Mar 22, 2010 7:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Walk on from Shelby Valley. They just upset Ballard this weekend to win the Sweet Sixteen.

They gone have to stop sleeping on me one day.. I gotta be one of the best

About 3 hours ago by Eric Wright Cleveland Browns – Cornerback

by Villeslgr on Mar 22, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chris Smith and the gang

I think Chris Smith and the development of our freshman our the two biggest questions going into the season.
1. Siva – sure he did show us flashes of what he can do, but he also showed us flashes of what he can’t do, his defense is better than Sosa’s as a freshman, but he has got to step it up another notch, he got manhandled more than a few games this year.
2. Rock – rock has got to be a more consistent shooter. I see a lot of T-Will in him, TWill had that athleticism that would carry him through a few standout games and then he would disappear for a few games.
3. Marra – Marra needs to work more on moving without the ball and look for places that he can get open to shoot the 3 or the 15ft jump shot in stride.
4.Richie Phares – come in and play like this is the last game you will ever play.
5. Van Tresse – develop one offensive move during the off-season that you can go to to get some points on the board.
 Now for the sophs –
1.TJ – needs to work on his footwork and passing. Also I think they need to go to some football practice to learn how to catch the ball (it would be good if SS would join him).
2. SS – passing out of the double team is his biggest failure, he has to be get stronger hands, to be able to catch these dimes that Siva is going to try and drop to him. Don’t assume you are going pro after your junior year.
3. Swop – bulk up, the heart is there for Swop, he wants to play hard everynight. He still reminds me of Tayshaun Prince.
4. Kuric – just needs to learn when we need him to shoot the three and when we need him on the boards. After the cuse game he just kinda hung out around the 3 point line. He needs to be in the paint as well, and he could be one of those O’Bannon type players his senior year.
5.Goode – get healthy and stay healthy.
Now for our juniors
1. Preston – just be preston for the whole game, give what you gave us off the bench, for the better part of every game. Siva looks up to you, he wants to play D like you.
2. Chris Smith – play like you dress, pimped out.

Incoming Frosh –
1.Smith will get playing time and the beginning of the season and then go by the wayside for the big east schedule.
2. Coleman is the enigma here, he could either come in and get significant playing time or be a head case and not play after the non conference schedule.
3. Justice – play like BJ Flynn, you remind me of him, so that is what I expect from you.
4 Gorgui – continue developing your game, play all four years and become a dominating force in college basketball.

by cards4life1 on Mar 23, 2010 9:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Samardo has pretty good hands I've always felt like

I think he just needs to work on quickness (not necessarily speed) and, as you mentioned, anticipating and passing out of double teams.

by Centre24 on Mar 23, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

too many times this year

the ball slipped through his hands or was too easily smacked away, I think you are right that his first step is slow even compared to TJ

by cards4life1 on Mar 23, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

2011

I know it is early, but we have the potential to be outstanding in 2011 barring any early departures, i.e Samuels.

by cards4life1 on Mar 23, 2010 9:59 AM EDT reply actions  

No way Samuels goes anywhere

He’s not ready for the pros, as any NBA scout will tell him. He’s not hurting for playing time at Louisville, and has no reason (as far as I know) to even think about transferring.

by rickmbari on Mar 23, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I really hope we get Dieng.

I like what little I’ve seen of him. He seems to be really fluid and athletic, and he seems to have good instincts. Could be a very good long-term pickup.

Looking forward to 2011 — Siva’s development should be fun to watch, Coleman should be a talented addition, and we have a number of others (Samardo, TJ, Buckles, Swop) who have the opportunity to take a big step forward next year.

Here’s hoping the extortion trial doesn’t drive Rick out of town.

by cardsinindy2010 on Mar 23, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Don’t we have 2 better centers coming in the next class though?

Scientific research has proven that you lose exactly 5.37 billion brain cells every time you listen to Todd McShay.

by TheRealSlimShady on Mar 24, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

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