Ranking Louisville's final four games
by Mike Rutherford on Feb 23, 2010 12:13 PM EST
in Basketball
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PrintAt 9-5 and alone in fifth place in the Big East standings, Louisville will end its regular season with four games that all appear on paper to be toss-ups.
--Win all and the Cards earn one of the league's four double-byes for the Big East Tournament and head to New York playing solely to improve their NCAA Tournament seeding.
--Win three and they have an outside shot at a double-bye and are safely into the field of 65.
--A split would result in meeting Rick Pitino's goal of 11 conference and wins and probably also lock up an at-large bid.
--Win one and it's probably going to take a win or two (depending on the first round opponent) at Madison Square Garden for good vibes to resonate on Selection Sunday.
--Drop all four and U of L is probably staring down the daunting task of needing a run to the conference title game in order to go dancing.
In terms of degree of difficulty, there's very little separating these four games.
Connecticut has the worst record of the four, but the Huskies are playing as well as anyone in the league and Louisville has struggled in Storrs since it joined the Big East.
Georgetown has lost two straight and 3-of-5, but the Hoyas are probably one of the ten best teams in the country and are capable of beating anyone (see Villanova and Duke games). The losing streak probably doesn't bode well for Louisville.
Marquette has finally learned how to win the close one and has lost just once in the last month. Both teams will probably be facing similar situations, and the game is being played in Milwaukee.
Syracuse will be facing a hostile environment in the last game ever played at Freedom Hall, and the Orange have already lost this season to a Cardinal team they don't match up particularly well with. Still, this is the best team in the Big East.
So how do we rank these guys in order of most to least difficult.
Here's my thought:
1. Syracuse
2. At Connecticut
3. Georgetown
4. At Marquette
Regardless, it's quite the stretch.
What say you?
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Anyone want a ticket to tonight game?
My girl needs the money, so $50
Oh, and good thoughts Mike
by sam34gtr on Feb 23, 2010 12:27 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I bet if you gave up your courtside "access"
you would probably make a little bit more money and your girl would be happier.
by Chris Redman is my hero on Feb 23, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Sam, what seat/section?
Coming down tonight, this could be my only game of the season I might catch.
william.hommel@covance.com for next few hours
I think at UConn will be toughest
You could argue either Cuse or UConn, for all the reasons you highlighted above, but I think the fact that we never, ever match up well with UConn, the fact that they’re backed up against the wall, and the fact that this game is in Storrs make it more difficult. I watched highlights of the WVU game last night and that place sounded like it was rocking. Also, you’ve gotta think that with it being the last game in the Hall our crowd/players will be insane. Plus we match up well with The ‘Cuse, and our guys have confidence that they can beat them. I’m also just much more nervous when this team goes on the road.
One other thing, road wins over UConn and Marq might be HUGE for seeding, because it gives us a much better road record, which we lack, and road record is something I think the committee looks at strongly when seeding.
by Chris Redman is my hero on Feb 23, 2010 12:33 PM EST reply actions
Rankings
1. At Connecticut- Team is REALLY athletic and starting to hit their stride. They need wins to get into the dance and will play their asses off.
2. Georgetown- Will ‘mardo show up? I hope so, been playing well lately hopefully it continues against a good big man,
3. Syracuse- The hall will be rowdy and we will need this win going into post season. Good edgar will show up and the crowd will help win this last game at Freedom Hall.
4. At Marquette- Marquette sucks. I’m sure the game will come down to the last second and someone will nail a long distance three pointer for the win.
I agree with your ranking
Marquette I think is squarely #4, and I think Gtown at home is “easier” than either Cuse at home or at UConn. I couldn’t necessarily argue with someone who placed the roadtrip in Storrs above Cuse.
I am most pessimistic about @ UConn.
But all four scare the crap out of me. This team is fully capable of winning or losing all four, and I would gladly settle for 2-2. Any combination of 2 wins and 2 losses in this stretch would leave me satisfied.
by cardsinindy2010 on Feb 23, 2010 1:08 PM EST reply actions
I would switch 3 and 4, gotta like the home chances more than the road chances, most of the time...
But I still think Cuse is the toughest matchup. They’re just better than UConn, and will give us more trouble. UConn will be riding momentum, of course, but they don’t have a bench, and the game on Sunday is winnable if we make 7 or 8 3s and get the ball to Samardo like we should.
also
this isn’t a popular opinion, and by no means do I want to settle, but I think 10-8, especially if the last win is tonight or against Cuse, gets us in the dance, regardless.
by doctorofdunk on Feb 23, 2010 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Someone asked me this
Does beating Syracuse on March 6 mean less because we beat them earlier in the year?
Obviously, it doesn’t matter when it comes to RPI ranking and the like, but would people take credit away from us and write it off as one of those odd, bad matchups for Syracuse?
Beating a red-hot Connecticut team loaded with talent in Storrs might actually do more for our national reputation heading into the postseason…unless, of course, that’s the only game of the four we win.
by Mike Rutherford on Feb 23, 2010 1:39 PM EST reply actions
Winning out doesn't necessarily get us a double bye
I recently said the same thing, but I was mistaken. Unless West Virginia loses again, we’d be tied with them for fourth; and they beat us heads-up, so they’d get the 4 seed, wouldn’t they?
I think Syracuse is the toughest matchup for us, but any of the four could easily go either way. Winning two of the four lets us breathe easy on Selection Sunday. Winning them all gets us about a 5 seed in the NCAA; running the table and winning the BE tourney gets us a 3 or 4 seed.
I think Georgetown’s recent funk is a hopeful thing for us. Lose one game, and you’re motivated to win. Lose three out of five and you’re likely to be frustrated and disheartened. Even if they’re not down on themselves, that many losses bunched at this stage of the season means there’s something wrong. They’re decidedly beatable.
A second win against Syracuse is bigger than the first one. It shows the first win wasn’t a fluke. Especially if coupled with a win over Georgetown, it shows we’re legit. And if it caps a seven-game winning streak, it makes us 7-1 in February and vaults us into the top 15.
I think Mike has the order right: Cuse, @UConn, Georgetown, @Marquette. But it’s very close.
We still have only three road wins on the season, and two of those were against patsies. We need to show the selection committee some road wins! For that reason, I would rank them in importance as:
- @Marquette;
- @UConn;
- Georgetown;
- Syracuse.
I predict we go 3-1 to end the season, losing only the finale to Syracuse and getting the 5 seed in the Big East tourney; then we beat Cincinnati and West Virginia to get to the semis, where we win the rubber match against the Orange. That puts us in the finals against Nova, and wouldn’t it be sweet to avenge THAT loss. If we win, we get a 6 seed; if we lose, probably an 8 or 9.
WVU would have to lose or Pitt would have to lose twice
I’m assuming that one of these would happen.
by Mike Rutherford on Feb 23, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
WVU has to play Syracuse
I don’t think Pitt has two losable games left. But then again, this is the Big East.
Pitt has an easy slate (relatively)
and should at worst go 3-1. WVU finishes with UC and Gtown at home, and at Nova…could definitely see a 1-2 finish.
I think you're underplaying the significance of a strong finish
If we finish 3-1, and win the BET, there’s no way we’re only getting a 6 seed. We would have beaten 4 top 10 teams in the process. I think we’d be the 4/5 seed that people think was overseeded (ala Cuse a few years back). Even if we lose in the BET finals, we’d probably be a 6 seed, at worst a 7. We’re sitting at a 8/9/10 seed right now, beating 3 top 10 teams (Gtown, WVU, and Cuse in a rubber) would certainly help our cause.
My hope is that for the game in Storrs we get NEMM
we can’t lose if NEMM shows up.
by Chris Redman is my hero on Feb 23, 2010 3:35 PM EST reply actions
I can feel it coming in the air tonight, Oh Lord
I’ve been waiting for this moment all my life, Oh Lord
Can you feel it coming in the air tonight, Oh Lord, Oh Lord
TJ has been waiting for this moment all his life, Oh Lord
Can you feel him scoring and blocking shots all night, Oh Lord
(Drum solo)
Well I remember, I remember don’t worry
Preston won’t let them forget the last time we met
Apologies to Phil Coilins
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