4th and inches > 1st and 10

by UL is my hot hot sex on Nov 16, 2010 3:42 AM EST in Football

Let's all agree to disagree about the 4th and inches call on Saturday. Everyone has their own opinion on why it was or wasn't the right play. Our defense. Their linemen. Our quarterback. They're on the road. All valid points.

In a recent FanPost, CC member CardsFanTX commented; "I think fans aren’t always just "yeah rah!" regardless of what happens. I think true fans question decisions like that. Because we want what’s best for the program, and that isn’t to rubber stamp every call our coach makes."

I completely understand this viewpoint. And I'm not singling out CardsFanTX, either. His opinion seemed to be the prevailing thought after the game that it was a bad call and thus why I'm quoting him here. But I think many of the fans who disagree and think it was a good call aren't necessarily fleeced by Strong's infallible reputation.

Would we be making fun of Krags if he'd made the same call in the same situation? Probably. But Strong isn't Kragthorpe.

Strong inherited a Kragthorpe'd program that had suffered through back-to-back losing seasons. He moved his family to a city of Louisville fans who'd once grown accustomed to high powered offenses and 9 straight seasons of bowls they could attend with pride. Last season, we begrudgingly celebrated a 10-9 win at home over Syracuse.

Strong's undertaken an under-performing roster full of players who've yet to experience a winning season and quickly turned them into Big East contenders by November, within one victory of bowl game qualification.

A team that prides itself on blitzing and running on 4th down to clinch a game. A backup quarterback whom most fans, including me, continue to doubt. A team that takes chances when the game hangs in the balance because it's their only edge.

The terms "conventional" and "conservative" are not in the 2010 Louisville football team's vocabulary.

Charlie Strong via text message to his team: "Tough loss. I believe in each one of you. We're a really good football team, and you are a very special group of guys. If I had to do it all over again, I would go for it on 4th and inches. That's how much I believe in each one of you."

Statement. Made. Strong is beginning to form his legacy as a head coach who will live and die by going for it on 4th and inches. By being the aggressor and putting the game in his senior's hands--not the opponent's.

We can second guess the decision by asking what if our running back or a more athletic QB had taken the snap. Or perhaps we could've spread out four WR's to get more defensive bodies off the line and create a passing audible if necessary. Sounds great in retrospect.

Well, what if Strong settled for the field goal and Philpott missed it? What if B.J. Daniels would've burned the Cards' secondary for a touchdown? How many fans would've said "We should've gone for it on 4th and inches. It was onlyinches." Or: "Our offensive line is the most experienced position group on the team--Strong should've listened to his players and been more aggressive." Few would still argue the sneak would've been a bad call.

It wasn't a good call because of mathematical probabilities, implied risk or because it's what the textbook says to do. It was a good call because Louisville decided to earn the win on their own 4th and inches, not USF's 1st and 10. Unfortunately, the Cards fell a couple inches short on Saturday.

The good news is that Strong's not selling us a bridge year; "We can't get an inch, we don't deserve to win."

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Comments

Well said

I’ve been reading this blog for a couple of years and I just joined because I wanted to join in the conversations about how much fun football is again. I stopped reading the comments after the game because of how negative they were. It’s like people want a miracle to happen. We Have played better than most would have hoped and it’s all because of our coaches, staff, and 18-22 year old kids who go out every week and play like their hair is on fire. We all have our issues and or moments with the team (Bobby burns doesn’t make me yell at him “Burke I hope you blow out your knees” like the guy behind me Saturday, but I can’t handle him always being 5-10 yards behind his man and never wrapping up a rb). But we wouldn’t have been in that game without coach and that is fact. I couldn’t agree with you more and I can really say that this is one of my favorite reads so far. Well said my friend

by gocardsguy on Nov 16, 2010 8:03 AM EST via mobile reply actions

It was a good call because Louisville decided to earn the win on their own 4th and inches, not USF’s 1st and 10

But that’s not true. I don’t get what people don’t understand about this. There wasn’t a clock we could kill and there was no guarantee that we scored a TD after getting that first down. We weren’t earning a win or guaranteeing anything. Not only did we have to get a difficult (no matter how trivial you want to try and make the distance) 4th down, but then we still had to score. There was a decent chance that we would have still just had to settle for a FG after that. And on top of that, they are guaranteed a possession. You simply cannot come out of the first possession of overtime without points. I don’t have any stats on this, but I’d be shocked if teams that don’t score on the 1st possession of overtime don’t lose 95% of the time or more.

That call accomplished nothing except to vastly improve the chances that we would lose right there. Any thing it did to increase our chances of winning was more than offset by the fact that it essentially guaranteed a loss when we didn’t get it. If Charlie wanted to put his team in the best position to earn the victory, he takes the points, tells his defense to get two stops, and then goes out and gets a TD in the second overtime. It was just beyond unfathomably stupid to go for it there. An all risk, no reward situation if ever there was one.

by _TheGainesShow_ on Nov 16, 2010 9:10 AM EST reply actions

I agree with this 100%

It was a terrible call. I don’t know why people are rationalizing it.

I do agree with Coach that we didn’t DESERVE to win if we couldn’t make it, but I’ll take the win whether we deserve it or not. Gotta go with the numbers in this situation.

(Disclaimer: I in no way question the overall head coaching ability of HCCS.)

by Jason G on Nov 16, 2010 9:20 AM EST up reply actions

You know why people are rationalizing it...

BECAUSE THAT’S THE WAY IT HAPPENED.

If you want to play what-if’s I’ll offer one…a simple coin flip. USF loses that toss and we aren’t talking about 4th and inches, even if we did lose. We’d either be celebrating bowl eligibility and having giddy delusions of a BCS bowl or we’d be talking about a 100 yard kickoff return and how special teams really let us down in this game.

Facts are these: The what-if’s don’t matter. You questioning coach doesn’t matter. This “mistake” didn’t cost us a bowl; we still have 2 more football games to decide that. All that matters is we are a much improved football team, have exceeded pretty much everyone’s expectations and have a coach that truly gives a damn and wants to win.

by Remote Cardinal on Nov 16, 2010 10:13 AM EST up reply actions

I think the what-ifs do matter

Because you learn from your mistakes.

You’re saying other factors influenced the game so the decision didn’t matter. Using that line of reasoning you should go for it on every fourth and inches because other factors influence the game anyway and there are always more games to win.

I’m wasn’t degrading our coach I don’t know why you’re coming to his defense. I’m well aware of the big picture here.

by Jason G on Nov 16, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

BTW... Saturday as it was called I wished we had taken the points too...

and I understand that you were degrading coach. My whole point is that now that the decision is made (and failed), there is no point in US questioning it to death. HCCS is the man to learn from situation, and all we can do is learn about our team and our coach. If anything, what we have learned that HCCS willing to take big-time risks (something that if one has payed attention this season, probably would have suspected.) I do get annoyed when someone calls the decision “unfathomably stupid” and “all risk, no reward”, because neither of those are the case. That to me evidences a fan that may care more about winning than they do supporting their team.

And I won’t go into your inference of my line of reasoning as either I’ve miscommunicated or you missed my reasoning, because I’m certainly not discounting all other factors. I feel that many fans are being extremely reactive to this game and are throwing away the rest of the season (or at least bowl hopes) because today is the first day that HCCS “let them down.”

by Remote Cardinal on Nov 16, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

Numbers

What are the comparison numbers on 4th & inches QB sneaks, successful FG conversions, etc? I’m not convinced the sneak was that risky in relation to a comparison of the numbers.

It sucked we didn’t get it and lost. What if we’d taken the FG and either missed it or let USF score a TD? We’d probably be rationalizing how much confidence Strong has in the defense or his kicker. But I have a feeling Strong already knew he’d go for it in that situation well before this game kicked off.

I don’t think it was the best call but I don’t think it was stupid.

by UL is my hot hot sex on Nov 16, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions

all valid points as well

but there are arguments on either side too. My fanpost was the one the reply came from. Just playing devil’s advocate in it essentially. I liked the call and the guts and the odds for 4th and inches and I stated some of the shoulda/woulda/coulda scenarios if we went for the 3 pts. we just came up short and it cost us the game. we go for three and it likely would have had the same consequences. we take 3 and USF playcalls are a llittle less conservative and they possibly score 7 and lots of people second guess not going for it on 4th and inches (not yards)… Hot hot just said it more eloquently
and btw, our D wasn’t all that stellar based on comments and what little bits of the choppy game feed I could see… BJ Daniels tried to serve us that game on a silver platter but overthrew several WIDE OPEN recievers. one squared up instead of continuing to run and catch it over his shoulder… Our D is outstanding compared to last year, but they caught a TON of breaks too…

by 4ul4life on Nov 16, 2010 10:03 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

RE: _TheGainesShow_

While no guarantee obviously, I’m pretty confident had we been awarded a 1st down that deep in the red zone on that type of ballsy play call, our momentum cup would’ve runneth over and we’d score a TD on the ensuing set of downs 95% of the time or more.

I get what you’re saying and while I don’t think the call was “unfathomably stupid” it’s worth debating whether or not it was good or bad.

by UL is my hot hot sex on Nov 16, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

I don't feel singled out

And your post here is a great one, hot hot. I love that HCCS has already re-energized the fans about UofL football, and not just because he says the right things, but because of the way his players play during games. That’s ultimately the thing we care about the most. Krapthorpe mumbled the right platitudes, but the product on the field was pathetic despite the effort of his players. With mostly those same players, HCCS has turned them into the most overachieving team maybe in UofL football history. You can definitely make an argument for that.

I guess it comes down to this for me, as a fan…

Because this team tries so hard and plays its balls off from start to finish, it puts every single play call under a much more unforgiving microscope. I hope that makes sense. I want their sheer desire to succeed to never be hampered by anything the coaches do that might – however well intentioned – place an obstacle in the way of achieving success. So, I understand and acknowledge that there are valid arguments for calling the QB sneak in that OT situation. I get why it happened. My support (hell, DEVOTION!) to Coach Strong has not wavered one iota. But it is the very fact that I’m an uber-fan and have just fallen totally in love with this team’s desire and how tough they are and how much they lay it all on the line every game – that’s precisely why I’m prone to overreacting whenever a call comes in that seems to work against their success.

I’m just so happy that I get late August – early January (hopefully, in coming years) to be excited about football again. I’ve missed it.

by CardsFanTX on Nov 16, 2010 10:15 AM EST reply actions

Thanks

Arguments can be healthy and it’s interesting to see the differences of opinion on this one play.

by UL is my hot hot sex on Nov 16, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

I confess to being wishy-washy...

At the moment of the call, my first thought was “Wow… what gonads!” After it failed, my thoughts were… “Damn… that didn’t work!”. (Pardon the exclamation points, please Mike)

But I’m not feeling anywhere near qualified to question the play calling of HCCS. If it had been Krapthorpe with his history of bad ideas, I’d go in the other direction. But Coach Strong most definitely ain’t Krapthorpe and if he wanted to go for it, I’m with him.

"There is no OFF position to the genius switch" - D. Letterman

by GrogInOhio on Nov 16, 2010 3:22 PM EST reply actions