When Bad Things Happen To Good Teams: Luck's Impact On Cardinal Basketball
by CardsFan922 on Jan 31, 2010 11:24 AM EST
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PrintSo there seem to be a couple different coalescing fan opinions about yesterday's game. First, the refs screwed us (again!) and this is getting ri-gd-diculous. Second, our team blew another game that it should have won, giving up a double digit lead and failing to make plays down the stretch. Everyone can agree that Pitino bears some blame - either for not punching a ref or for his substitution patterns, his late-game timeouts to let the other team draw up a play, or all of the above. What makes it worse is that this is the fourth game we have lost so far in the Big East in this way, except at least we didn't blow a lead to Seton Hall.
And yesterday's loss certainly had a mix of all of those things. Sure, we shouldn't have blown a lead. But keep in mind we were playing a top ten team on the road, a team that has consistently made up big deficits this year, and that they made a huge defensive switch to a weird 1-3-1/2-3 zone with a couple of 6-6 guys at the top. If they had played that defense the whole game, who knows what we've done. The point of that is, it's not like we were throwing the ball to the other team every time down the court, or just started taking bad shots. The other team - a really good team - made a really good defensive adjustment that we couldn't re-adjust for. Pitino can gameplan, he can make halftime adjustments, but his strong suit has never been in-game adjustments.
The other thing everyone agrees on is that we are clearly heading to the NIT. I'm not so sure. Looking at the schedule, we can go 5-1 over the next 6 (UConn and @Syracuse are two toughest games) which means we'd have to go 2-2 over the last 4 to get to 11 wins (Georgetown, @Uconn, @Marquette, Cuse - yikes). I don't think I'm crazy to say that 11 wins is impossible, nor am I to say that 11 wins is actually pretty doable.
But losing becomes contagious. Not being able to finish games creeps into your head, so when we were only up 5, I felt like we were going to lose. You know if the fans felt like that, the guys on the court who had actually experienced those losses way worse than we ever could felt the same thing. So thinking you can't finish contributes to not being able to finish.
Let's face it - WVU did every little thing it had to do to win yesterday. Any one thing goes differently in those last 5 minutes, we win that game. WVU got 2 and-1's on questionable calls. We kept missing shots, missed a few free throws, fouled a bunch....and Butler made a really tough shot to give them their first lead of the half. And even after all of that, we had arguably best three point shooter from his favorite spot get hammered (no foul called) and then should have had another chance with 7 seconds left. But luck plays a huge part, and the refs blew both calls. Also, the ball went out on Mizzula's face.
Anyway, the point of this post is to ask whether this loss or any of these four losses really say something about this team, or just about basketball in general. If any one thing had gone different in yesterday's game or the Pitt game, we'd be in the top 25 and arguing seeding. If Scottie Reynolds hadn't gone an unreal 9-10, 5-5 (13-17) while getting every single call (Siva's fifth foul, for example), maybe we're in the top 10 right now. Instead, Nova is undefeated in the Big East and is going to be ranked #2 Monday.
The Pitt game - every little thing had to go wrong for us to lose that game, and right for Pitt. Us missing so many free throws is just part of it - Pitt had to make a three pointer and then score with 1.9 remaining on an inbounds play - that they did by getting fouled by our Senior Co-Captain while their player was dribbling out of control away from the basket. I mean, come on. So those are three losses to ranked teams that just as easily could have been wins with just ONE thing going right for us, wrong for the other team, or somewhere in between.
But maybe this stuff is just balancing out. Let's look at some close calls from last year's magical run, not including the Kentucky game (what if Sosa misses that shot? I don't even want to think about it. Except maybe they bring back Billy G for Year 3).
It all boils down to this: Alex Ruoff has never missed every shot he's taken in a game, and Scottie Reynolds has never had a game where he shot 90%/100%/76% and scored 36 points. If Ruoff had made 1 open shot, or Reynolds missed 1 contested fall away 3, how different would everything be? Can we really control that?
At 'Nova (1/10/09): The Cards shoot 3-25 from three but lead by 6-8 points most of the game, including a 9 point lead under 9 minutes. Nova comes back to take the lead (sound familiar?) Down the stretch, we kept missing but Nova kept missing free throws to give us a chance. T-Will makes the running layup that bounces around the rim a couple times before going in to give us a lead with :12. How many times does that play work? In those last :12, Nova gets a 2-1 break that Swopshire prevents a basket by fouling, then Nova misses two free throws and two layups as time expires. Nova then goes on to the Final Four.
Notre Dame (1/12/09): Two days later, UofL hosts reigning player of the year Luke Harongody and the #13 ranked Irish. A back and forth game where Notre Dame comes from down 7 to take a 4 point lead. Freshman Samardo Samuels makes a big leap forward and helps us tie the score at 77-77 all with about 3 minutes to go. Neither team scores the last three minutes, but we go on a 16-2 run in overtime to win the game going away. Easily a game we could have lost, if ND had just hit 1 shot or free throw those last 3 minutes (and no one on our offense was exactly clutch those last three minutes either).
#1 Pitt (1/17/09): A few days later, undefeated and #1 ranked Pitt comes to town. They jump out to a 20-9 lead and it looks like we are going to have a rough day. We battle back to take the lead in the first half but get down by as many as 7 points again in the second half. We battle back again to take the lead, stifling Pitt's offense. We get a miraculous call (Fields's push-off charge on Sosa 90 feet away from their rim) and then this happens:
If Earl Clark has the ball with less than 3 seconds on the shot clock, doesn't realize it, somehow figures it out and takes a 3 pointer with a foot on the line while fading to his right ten times in his career, how many times does that shot go in? Twice? Who makes that shot this year on our team? But can't you totally see Stanley Robinson doing that to us Monday night? What must Pitt fans have thought? Ugh.
Anyway, the teams trade free throws over the last minute and we pull out a 6-point win.
@West Virginia (3/7/09): With the regular season Big East championship on the line (because Pitt had knocked off UConn earlier in the day), we rolled into Morgantown, on Senior Night, where the ESPN Gameday crew had hosted that morning and was calling the game that night at 9. That's a lot of stuff stacked against us. As mentioned above, Senior Alex Ruoff is held scoreless on 0-the night shooting. Jerry Smith, yes, that Jerry Smith, made a huge 2 pointer from the wing and then made two clutch free throws. From the exact same spot, mind you, he missed @GTown in 2008 when we lost the regular season championship on the last day of the season. T-Will missed two free throws to give them a chance, but their three that they had to make misses at the buzzer. Celebration and mass hysteria ensue.
Those were not lucky wins by any stretch of the imagination. T-Will, Earl and Andre McGee all played huge roles in each of those games and seemingly willed us to victory. But we got a lot of lucky bounces, some lucky calls, made some huge shots, the other teams missed their shots they needed to make, and we had an amazing run.
There is still a lot of season left to play, but all we need to do is pull out one of these close games so that the "here we go again" mentality that has surely affected us in our close losses this year turns into a "we will win this game" mentality. Some players just aren't going to change their ways so far into their careers. And some players just aren't as good as T-Will, Earl, Padgett, etc.
If we could just get that one lucky bounce, that one call that goes in our favor, that one shot the other team needs that bounces out.....it's not like we are losing to crappy CUSA teams, we've shown we can play with the top teams in the country. Ya, we shouldn't have blown a big lead yesterday, but that top-10 team had something to do with it. We just needed - but didn't get - a little bit of help. Maybe things are just evening up from all that magic last season.
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"And This Too Shall Pass"
1 To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
2 a time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
3 a time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
4 a time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
5 a time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
6 a time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
7 a time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
8 a time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.
Luck is a part of it.
But I don’t consider it luck when the refs keep screwing us with calls late in these games. Sure, whether or not they call a charge or block, or who the ball last went out when there are guys all over it involves luck, the refs not knowing the rule book is not luck. There are 4 refs at every game, no way that it’s luck that we happen to get the only 4 who don’t know the rules like that.
At this point, it’s transcended mere luck. I understand luck is a crucial part of success, and every team that makes a deep run into the tournament has luck go there way at some point, but all these times the refs blow it is not luck. If we were losing just because we weren’t hitting a big shot or a last second shot, I think we as fans would still be upset at the losses, but maybe more understanding. But again, we’ve had 3 games where we either should have gotten that ball while still up, or gotten the ball and an attempt to win, but all 3 times we’ve been fucked by the refs. I refused to accept that it’s luck that makes these refs incompetent.
If Pitino convinces them that the only way to get around this luck
Is to murder the other team for 40 minutes, hoo boy watch out. A good old fashioned blow out over a ranked team is what the Cards need right now. Hopefully they come out with passion next game.
Also
Again we were down 13-0 in this game before we started playing. If we can actually start out even with one of these top teams, instead of being in a massive hole, we’re going to start winning these games.
And
They way they got back in that game is the way they need to play, they drove in, and kicked out, they were patient, they didn’t jack up three’s with 23 seconds on the shot clock, and they played defense and rebounded with energy and greed. If they could remember THAT at the end of a game we will start winning these games.
Good post
It made me check Kenpom’s ‘Luck’ ranking for Louisville. By his ratings, we’re 340th of 347 teams. Here is my basic interpretation of the ‘Luck’ ranking: the luckiest team would be a team that wins games by very small margins and loses games by really high margins (it’s winning percentage could easily be a lot lower than it actually is) and vice versa for the unluckiest teams.
The only teams unluckier than Louisville:
1) Penn State
2) Marquette
3) Southern Methodist
4) Holy Cross
5) Manhattan
6) Houston
7) South Carolina Upstate
Take a flip through Marquette's schedule/results
Like ours – heartbreaking.
And last year, we were 23rd "luckiest"
and the only team luckier than us that was any good was, um, Michigan State.
Good post CardsFan922
Last year was a truly miraculous season (except the last game). We did indeed get the shots/breaks we needed to win close games at the end. This year we seem to be on the other side of the fence.
My take on this is that this year we really don’t have any team leaders. Jerry and Edgar are not the type of players who can take over a team and make them play better (see T-Will, Padgett, etc.). They have always been the players who needed a leader. The other guys are new or young and feel like they need to let Jerry and Edgar have their turn. Thus, this year we have no leader. Personally I don’t expect the team to get better until next year. I’m not as convinced that Pitino should go, as much as I am that Jerry and Edgar are not doing their jobs as Senior leaders. Edgar is an egotistical child (no one follows an ego like that), Jerry has had his mojo sucked out of him by a wife and kid, and also the knowledge that he will not play at the NBA level and must therefore concentrate on classwork to get a degee so he can support his family. Thus the lack of Senior leadership has left this team with no “go to” guy when the game gets tough (yes, I know Delk is a Senior, but has only one and a half years in the system. So he’s more like a Sophomore to his team mates).
It certainly doesn’t help matters when a young team fights hard and then loses a close one due to what appears to be exceptionally bad refereeing. Luck is when the ball bopunces in for you and out for them. As CardinalDude said, “at this point, it’s transcended mere luck”. So far we have played 4 games this year that have all had extremely questionable calls at the end that helped determine the winner.
Combine the attrocious refereeing with lack of on-the-court leadership and you have the recipe for a frustrating season. At this point I will not NIT-pick yet, but the time is getting shorter to make a move for the Big Dance.
I was just thinking this morning
that West Virginia fans must think they were due for a miracle comeback against us, considering the way we’ve come back on them in recent years. It does nothing to reduce the sting. We should have won yesterday’s game and the refs took it away from us. Yes, we let them back in it – but we played well enough to win. It took not one, not two, but three horrendous calls in the last twenty seconds. Almost 24 hours later, I am still angry every time I think about it.
Please count me out
of that “everyone” that agrees Pitino deserves “blame.” I don’t flatter myself that I understand the game better, or can quantify the suitability of a particular player for a particular situation better, than can a Hall of Fame caliber coach who has 1 devoted his life to this game, and 2 watched and taught these players during countless hours of practice. Pitino didn’t get his reputation out of a crackerjack box. I’m sure he can think of things he might have done differently (and that MIGHT have resulted in a better outcome), but while I might be jumping up and down screaming “Put Siva in!” or “Put Preston in!” while I’m watching the game, I’m simply not as qualified as he is to make that decision. He can second-guess himself now if he likes (and he’s probably agonizing over it), but I’m not going to do it. If Pitino was great last year (and he was), how is he suddenly the goat now?
On the other hand, I do suffer from a rather primitve intuition that luck levels over time, so I can relate to your sense that we just used up all the good stuff last year. Villanova had no business missing tip-in after tip-in in that game, etc., etc. On a less paranormal note, it seems pretty obvious to me that just about everyone in the Big East is simply gunning for us because of the way we ate their lunch last year. We ruined West Virginia’s Senior Day last March. They remember. So we’re also dealing with the “we want revenge!” factor.
Bottom line for me is this: We have a great coach and we have a talented, hard-working team that can play, and has played, with the best. We haven’t gotten the breaks, and that’s an understatement. This could all turn around Monday night. I hope the players realize that, because it’s true.
Here’s my quibble with your title. I don’t think we’re a good team. As Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record is.” Frankly, I think our record is in line with the fact we’re a marginally good team, but not much more. If we had just blown one game late, I might say it was bad luck, but we now have enough evidence to confirm that what we are seeing is the real team.
I hate to be Debbie Downer, but nothing that has happened this year is surprising. I was horrified after I watched the very first exhibition against Northern Kentucky. After one half, I call a good friend who usually thinks along the same lines as me and we agreed this year might be a major struggle.
We can get into what caused all of this at another time, but bad things happen to bad, or at least not very good, teams.
I see where you are coming from...
…I’m not saying we are a “great” team. We have consistently played with and looked equal to if not better than some of the best teams in the country. The point of the post is that we are a few bounces (and some “senior leadership”) away from being a top 15 or top 10 team. What truly separates the good and great teams are those bounces and those intangibles.
And the talent is definitely down this year, but I think that says something about Pitino’s game plans and the team’s hard work.
It’s not like we are getting blown out in our losses. Good teams can lose a lot of close games. I have not seen one game this year where I thought that we could not have beaten the other team at least 5 times out of 10, except Kentucky.
Relevant points by all; great post CardsFan922
I think this season accurately reflects what most of us worried about after last season ended. Who will be the go-to guy, the leader, the T-Will, DP, Francisco? The few times that the Cards got “unlucky” via blown officiating this year, the other team’s marquee player(s) took advantage and stepped up to win the game. Luck aside, that’s the biggest difference this year from recent years past. The talent is the same but the leadership/clutch factor/intangible force is not.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Jan 31, 2010 3:51 PM EST reply actions
That's a good point
Yesterday we were burned by Da’Sean Butler. And then Hazell went off, and Reynolds, and Gibbs made the 3 pointer I think. Mike mentioned how we didn’t let Butler or Reynolds go off every other year, and while he jinxed everything and ruined the season, it really shows how important T-Will, and McGee were to defense. We can’t get stops this season when we need them. The only player we stopped was Jones of USF, and that was mainly because of fouls.
I don’t really think Mike ruined the season, that was a joke.
I really
want to see what Siva does in crunch time/ game on the line.
by REALISTICCARDSFAN on Jan 31, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I do too,
but Pitino’s horrible substitutions yesterday are another post. Why not Siva and Sosa? We played midget McGee and not tall Jerry Smith last year, and we play a flipping zone. I don’t buy the Pitino excuse. It sounds like the real reason is Edgar would cry if he’s not bringing the ball up every trip
just to clarify
by talent level I mean the talent that was brought into the program over the last four years is similar to the ‘previous four years of talent’ assembled on last year’s team. The difference was that Terrence and Earl developed into T-Will and E5 over 3-4 years. Jerry and Edgar did not. It happens.
by UL is my hot hot sex on Jan 31, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
So I guess the upshot of all the discussion is...
…what goes up must come down. Last year we were very lucky, with Senior leaders. This year we are without the senior leaders and we have no luck. As the saying goes, “If it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all.”
Pretty sure
we are due for a lot of bad game changing calls to go our way.
by REALISTICCARDSFAN on Jan 31, 2010 7:32 PM EST reply actions
The only thing I can control and that most fans can do
is to go into tomorrow’s game versus UConn and blow the roof off of Freedom Hall and pull the guys through to the end. The house needs to be rocking because UConn is probably feeling the same way after their loss Saturday.
It would be easy to be down but the crowd really needs to get behind the team because they have been giving 100% effort so we should too. Especially since it is an ESPN game on Big Monday.
www.crosleyfieldterrace.wordpress.com
Great idea!
I’ll be there, and I plan to come out of Freedom Hall with no voice left at all. If I offend some of the more staid Card-watchers, so be it.
Some teams.......
…..make game winning plays. Some teams don’t.
Great post indeed
And while I agree with Cardinal Dude that this particular game was more about shitty officiating than bad “luck,” per se, as those examples you put forth from last year revolve around missing and making shots, not judgment calls, I agree with you in a broader sense.
Let’s also not forget that we got PItt and UConn at home last year and that the win in Morgantown triggered the following series of events….
*Winning the Big East outright and pushing Pitt and UConn to the bottom of the Big East tourney bracket.
*PItt and UConn crash out in the quarters
*Somehow, Kansas, Oklahoma, Michigan St. and UNC ALL FAIL TO WIN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNEYS, giving us the 1 seed.
*We avoid playing Ohio State in Dayton with Siena’s upset, and then avoid playing a Utah team that might’ve given us fits—-an uber-talented Wake team, because Arizona and Cleveland State beat them.
*Our luck finally runs out when we are outschemed and out played by the Spartans.
When you consider this ridiculous series of events, any right-minded fan has to concede that we were due for some bad luck this year. Count me among those that haven’t lost faith. I think a 10-8 conference record and an RPI above 50(ish) is enough to get it done. If you want to moan about how the program has gone in the tank after we were the best team in the country last year entering the tourney, please do it in front of a mirror or your fellow spoiled friends, not on this thread. Thank you.
Dunk, M.D.
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