Vegas CFB Thoughts: Week 3

Took Week 2 off b/c the Cards did...and I spent my furlough near South Louisville, AKA Destin, FL.

Typically, rivalry games garner a tighter spread by Vegas oddsmakers due to the obvious reasons. For this year's Governor's Cup, however, no football pundit this side of The Dave and Scott Show thinks Louisville has a chance to keep it within two scores. I would have to agree but there's no way I'm touching the spread on this one, which started at 10 points but is now up to 14 points in UK's favor. I believe the over/under is 49 a/o this morning and I think I'd take the under if someone forced me to bet on this game. My pick: Louisville 7 Kentucky 35.

Side note that may only interest my Dad and me: I asked a local sportsbook associate what he thought about the Louisville at Kentucky game. In all seriousness, he said: "It might be too early to tell but I don't think this is the same high scoring Louisville team from the last few years--are they still in the Big East in Football? I'd take UK, you gotta respect a Rich Brooks Defense". Ladies and Gentleman, your 2009 Louisville football team! Are we in the Big East? Checking, checking...yes! We still have a mathematical chance to make the BCS Championship game. If only Petrino hadn't recruited the worst 26th ranked recruiting class 3 years ago, Louisville would definitely be favored in this game, right Bo? 

Alrighty then, back to more Vegas stuff after the jump... 

The esteemed football programs representing the states of Boise and Fresno straight up bitch-slapped anyone who bet the under for Friday night's 51 - 34 offensive orgy in Fresno, California. Boise State came 1 pt from covering the over (52 at several casinos) by themselves which is pretty incredible. When I think of these two teams (and the WAC in general) I think of high scoring, no defense type games (kinda like Louisville and the Big East not so long ago...cuss word) so I'm surprised that the lone Friday game (garners more betting action than the same matchup on Saturday due to betting interest and relatively small alumni bases) with two MAC teams remained in the low 50s. That might be the betting gem of the CFB weekend.

A game that has already garnered huge interest from bettors is the Florida - UT game, which has moved 5 points from earlier this week with Florida now a 30 point favorite at home after beginning the week at -25. I think I'd take UT to cover in this one and most of you probably think this one will be a bigger blowout but I'm siding with Vegas here who originally set the line at 25: Florida 35 UT 10.

Last, after the Governor's Cup, most Card Chronicle readers will probably keep tabs on the WVU - Auburn game, which has also seen some movement in Vegas. What started out as a 4.5 spread favoring Auburn has now moved to 7 points in the Tigers' favor. Last year, WVU killed Auburn 34-17 but Auburn has a new coach with a more offensive minded team and WVU alum Pat White isn't walking through that door to light a couch on fire...so, as Coach Kragthorpe would put it, there's an unpredictability about this game that makes it hard to predict. I hope the Mountaineers represent the Big East and pull off the upset but I think they fall short: Auburn 33 WVU 27


Stone Cold Lead Pipe Pick: Under in UT @ Florida (52.5 pts)

Underdog Pick of the Week: Florida State (+8.5) over BYU , at BYU

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