Don't bet on it...

by DocCardsFan on Jul 10, 2009 6:02 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

Louisville Cardinals - Odds to win the Big East 15/1 - Coach Steve Kragthrope replaced six coaches after last year’s disastrous 5-7 overall and 1-6 Big East season. They ended the season with 5 consecutive losses, but will try to bring back some of the magic they saw in the 2006 season. That magic could start on offense. The Cardinals will be returning 9 starters, including RB Victor Anderson who racked up over 1,000 yards last year. North Carolina State transfer Justin Burke is the most likely to take over the QB duties. He saw limited action with the Wolf Pack in 2007. The defense was atrocious last year but should be markedly better this season. Experience can be the key with many things in life and that something the Cardinals defense finally has. Games at Kentucky and Utah early in the year will tell us all we need to know about the Cardinals. They won’t compete for the Big East title this year.

Syracuse coming in at 50:1

Cinci - 8:1

UConn - 8:1

Rutgers - 5:1

USF - 2.5:1

WVU - 2.5:1

Pitt - 2.5:1

They actually go on to pick Pitt as the dark horse, but I think the pick is based solely on the Wannstache's urgency to please a Pennsylvania crowd who has become ensconced (~~in velvet~~) in championships lately (NFL, NHL, MLB). So what this tells me is we don't have a snow cone's shot in hell to pull off a BE championship. Also, i'm guessing we're probably the underdog in the Syracuse game.

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15:1

I can’t imagine they get much action on that. I’d have put us at at least 30:1.

Also how is Syracuse still so far below us? Remember, we were last in the Big East last year because Syracuse held the tie-break over us. And they upgraded their coach.

by CardsFan922 on Jul 10, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Under the Hedges

Two possible reasons for Vegas’ 15:1 odds vice 30:1 or higher odds.

1. Vegas has to hedge their bets due to the arguably correct observation that this is a weakened (more than usual) Big East this year. With great parity and a weakened talent pool, anyone can feasibly catch fire and Louisville has similar levels of “talent with potential” that most Big East teams have this year. Someone with actual research and a higher Big East FB acumen (read:not lazy) could probably disprove that last statement. Anyways, I think 20-1 odds will be the highest number it goes to during the preseason.

This theory is proved partially by the fact that 3 diff teams are listed as 2.5-1 favorites. Therefore Vegas’ parity evidenced by this pattern of oddsmaking waters down all subsequent odds for other teams in the league. So ignore the actual numbers and realize that you’re getting 6 times more return on your money with Louisville than the projected top 3 teams. So then, the argument is: Would a bettor think that Louisville is 6 times less likely to win the Big East than USF, Pitt, and WVU?

2. A lot of bettors who remember Louisville from 2006 and see 15:1 odds might take a gamble on the 2nd best odds in the weakened Big East., based partially on past performance (mild as it is) and Louisville’s somewhat decent name recognition compared to the likes of South Florida, UConn, and Cincy who haven’t experienced as much high profile sucess—the kind that grabs a non-Big East fan bettors attention—over the last 3-5 years.

by UL is my hot hot sex on Jul 12, 2009 5:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

'Cuse

Wouldn’t be surprised if the ’Cuse continued their run over SK. If memory serves me correctly they had a pretty good recruiting class though it is possible most of the recruits could redshirt.

by cbcard on Jul 11, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not really

The class was kind of small, because many of GRob’s recruits bailed, and Marrone really didn’t have enough time to put together a complete class. And then a bunch of players walked in the off-season, when it was clear Marrone thought they should actually work in practice. But we did at least pick up some guys that sent good messages about where we want to be recruiting, and who we’re going after. Next year’s class looks somewhat better (hey, it has actual 3-star players in it!).

Still, if we have any hopes of getting six wins and a berth in an insignifiant bowl, we’re going to have to beat you guys.

by drothgery on Jul 11, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs