Big East Tourney Scenarios
by Phauz on Mar 5, 2009 12:04 AM EST
28 comments
And then there were four…as in, four games left that can impact UofL's Big East tourney seed or opponent (or at least opponent in the first round). Of course, these two:
UofL @ WVU, Saturday 9:00 PM
UConn @ Pitt, Saturday noon
As previously discussed, if UofL wins and Pitt beats UConn, we win the BE outright. Any other scenario we get #2
- UConn and UofL win – UConn gets the title with the head-to-head tiebreaker
- UofL loss and a UConn win and we finish #2 with no ties
- UofL loss and a Pitt win – 3 way tie with the following miniconf records (miniconf win % is the first 3-way tie breaker even if uneven number of games were played)
- Pitt 2-1
- UofL 1-1
- UConn 1-2
The other two games that affect our first round opponent:
Providence @ Villanova, Thursday 7:00 PM
Syracuse @ Marquette, Saturday 2:00 PM
Of our potential 1st round matchups as the #1 or #2: DePaul (#16), Rutgers (#15), and Cincy (#9) have locked up their seeds. ND will be the #10 as long as they don’t lose to St. Johns (but it would be pretty cool if they did). Without further ado, here are the scenarios…
Scenario #1 (the good one) – UofL beats WVU and Pitt beats UConn
UofL is #1 seed, playing the winner of the #8 and DePaul(#16)/Cincy(#9)
- If Syracuse beats Marquette AND Nova beats Providence , that puts Syracuse into 6th and WVU/Prov in a tie at 7th. WVU won that one head-to-head, so our #8 opponent is PROVIDENCE
- Every other scenario for Syr/Marq and Nova/Prov, WEST VIRGINIA gets the #8
Scenario #2 (I can live with this) – UofL beats WVU and UConn beats Pitt
UofL is #2 seed, playing the winner of the #7 and Rutgers(#15)/ND(#10)
- If Syracuse beats Marquette AND Nova beats Providence , same as scenario #1. Syracuse into 6th and WVU/Prov in a tie at 7th. WVU won that one head-to-head, so our #7 opponent is WEST VIRGINIA
- Every other scenario for Syr/Marq and Nova/Prov, SYRACUSE gets the #7
Scenario #3 (oh, this would not be good) – UofL loses to WVU then the Pitt/UConn game no longer impacts UofL
UofL is still the #2 seed, playing the winner of the #7 and Rutgers(#15)/ND(#10)
- If Syracuse AND Nova win, WVU and Syracuse tie for 6th. Syracuse beat them head to head, so the #7 is WEST VIRGINIA
- If Syracuse AND Providence win, now there is a 3-way tie for 6th. Prov, Syracuse, WVU have 1-1 records against each other. Providence wins the tie-breaker win their win over Pitt and SYRACUSE wins the #7 seed with the head-to-head win over WVU.
- The other two possibilities, we’ll get PROVIDENCE as the #7
- Marquette and Nova win – Prov and Syr tie for #7 and Prov wins by HtoH
- Marquette and Prov win – Prov and WVU tie for #6 and WVU wins by HtoH
Bottom line:
(This assumes we’d rather play Providence than WVU a third time and we’d rather play West Virginia than Syracuse)
1. Cheer for UofL (always)
2. Cheer for Pitt (I want this championship)
3. Cheer for Nova on Thursday. This helps us play Providence instead of WVU or WVU instead of Syracuse. Nova winning helps good stuff happen.
4. If Nova beat Providence, cheer for Syracuse over Marquette. Otherwise the only way the Syracuse/Marquette game impacts us is if we lost to WVU, in which case a Marquette win gives us Providence as our #7. So I guess if Providence beats Nova, cheer for Marquette just in case.
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crazy good analysis
but what does is have to do with the price of oranges in Madagascar?
by drhustle on Mar 5, 2009 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
A Process That Produces No Product
Bracketology and Scenarios.
Well thought out musings, Phautz.
But how about this: We let others worry about us for a change.
We worry about nothing other then what’s in front of us.
And if we get our asses beat, then, so it goes.
by Roz on Mar 5, 2009 9:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff, Phauz
Thanks for breaking this down.
On playing Providence, WVU, or Syracuse: I’m actually fairly indifferent. I could argue equally for each team. Providence, for example, is a really scary team to me in the BET. They are senior-laden and are probably the only BE team at this point that must make some noise in BET to advance to the NCAAs. I could be convinced that would be a tougher game than against a more talented Syracuse team.
Phauz, in another post, did I see that you think UL might be better served with UConn beating Pitt in order to take the #2 seed and have a two game edge on Pitt? I completely disagree with this. The GAINS of qualitatively ‘winning your conference’, having the #1 next to your name throughout the BET, and the far easier road to the BET finals as Pitt/Uconn are forced to knock each other off in the semis FAR OUTWEIGH any benefit of a two game edge in the conference — especially given the fact that we would have to beat Pitt in the semis for that to count for anything.
On a completely different note, I agree with Quinn’s comment about 7 teams having a chance to win it all (at surprisingly close odds). If it were not for injuries to Ginyard and Dyson, UNC and UConn would likely be huge favorites going in. I think 1 and 2 seeds will be really strong in this tournament. The drop-off to the #3 seeds is astonishing. Seeds #3-7 will be virtually indistinguishable. Teams 8-25 this year are just not that good.
This is evidenced by the fact that Memphis and Kansas are in the Top 10 right now, particularly Kansas though. Those rosters lost CDR, Derrick Rose, Dorsey and Chalmers, Darell Arthur, Sasha Kaun, Russell Robinson, AND Brandon Rush respectively. Are you kidding?! I know Calipari and Self can retool. But, so can Billy Donovan and That Matta. I didn’t see Florida or Ohio State anywhere but the NIT with 12 losses last year. The fact that Kansas is #9 and 24-6 this year shows that college basketball was probably down quite a bit this year and that outside the Top 8 there aren’t many dangerous teams.
by Adamjd86 on Mar 5, 2009 9:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Don't get me wrong
I want to win the BE regular season in a bad way! My point was that the silver lining of UConn beating Pitt is that we’d be clearly ahead of them for a 1 seed. You’re right, that all gets undone if they beat us in New York (again).
Which are the seven teams with a shot this year again? I see the dropoff after #5
UNC – yes
UConn – yes
Pitt – yes
UofL – hell yes
Oklahoma – OK
Kansas – maybe, but you say they are evidence of the big drop-off
Memphis? – come on
Duke? – nope
Michigan State? – got a “NFW” from Quinn
My point on that post is that we are comparing now against last year post-conf tourney. If we look at last year March 3rd, you might have said there are also ~7 teams with a shot (Tennessee only had two losses and was ranked way ahead of Kansas, beat Memphis HtoH; Texas was right there with Kansas in the Big XII; etc.). Maybe by the time this year’s conf tourneys and last weekend of games are over, you are down to 4-5 teams. You’re right that we did have a solid Top 4 going into the Tourney last year, but it doesn’t feel THAT much diffferent this year.
by Phauz on Mar 5, 2009 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Memphis
I want a plague to descend upon Memphis and smite them, but I gotta admit that a #1 for them is looking probable. Hang on, I just threw up in my mouth a little. Alrighty… Now, UNC is in as long as they don’t get beat bad by Duke and bow out early in their conf. tourney. I don’t see Memphis losing again, and even though their SOS sucks and they play in a weak conf., the Committee will give them a #1 based on their long winning streak and their ranking. Damnit, but that’s how it will go if they win out. That leaves 2 spots. I think whoever wins between UConn and Pitt in their season finale is in. It sucks, because as mentioned if Louisville wins out and Pitt beats UConn, Louisville wins the conf. title outright. But the Committee isn’t likely to see a UConn loss on the road to a strong Pitt team as anything to hold against them. In other words, I don’t see a UConn loss as helping Louisville’s case for a #1 seed. If Pitt loses to UConn, I think that’s best for Louisville. Pitt will have lost to Providence and UConn pretty close together. This will move Louisville up in the Committee’s analysis (in my opinion), as far as trying to pick a 2nd BE team to give a #1 seed to.
The bottom line is that Louisville really needs to beat WVU, which will be an all-out war, and then at least make the BET Finals (and hopefully not play Pitt there) to have a shot at a #1. Our early season losses to some suspect teams is what really hurts our chances. Honestly, I’ll be just fine with a #2 seed in the Dance. I mean, think about it… we were 8-3 a few months ago. We were all just hoping to make the Dance with any seed possible. Winning the BE and being in the mix for a freakin’ #1 seed was the LAST thing on our minds. Whatever happens, I’m already thrilled to have lived through the huge turnaround this season. You know what it reminds me of a bit? 1986. That teams lost several games early (I think they lost 7 total that year) and was out of the national talk completely. Then we all know what happened.
by CardsFanTX on Mar 5, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
Memphis is the biggest threat to (1) our #1 seed and (2) a three #1 seed Big East bonanza
Would be interesting to see the debate:
UNC
4-loss UConn with 3 of the losses to Pitt
4-loss Pitt with 2 losses to UofL
5-loss UofL, BE reg season and tourney champs
3-loss Memphis with two of their losses to Georgetown and Syracuse
then MSU and Duke with 5-7 losses
Not sure Memphis is a lock then, but they’ve got a pretty good shot if anything else shifts around. I’m sure the committee would rather not give three #1 seeds to the Big East
by Phauz on Mar 5, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot Oklahoma
they could sneak back into the conversation if they win the Big XII and finish with 4 losses, 1.5 w/o BGriff
by Phauz on Mar 5, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I see a drop after 5 also and a bigger drop after 8
Agree with your 5. Then:
6 – Memphis (loaded with talent, I wouldn’t go as far as “come on”)
7 – Duke (probably only team this year with both a solid offense and defense in the country)
8 – MSU (overrated agreed, but the next team, Kansas(?) is just bad)
by Adamjd86 on Mar 5, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great debate between Adam and Phauz
I was going through this very one last night when we had our game last night. While I see the merits of both scenarios, and agree that UConn winning wouldn’t necessarily be the WORST thing in the world, I am definitely in favor scenario #1, whereby we beat the ‘Eers and Pitt holds serve at the Zoo. As shaky as we’ve been in the BET the last few years (no wins were it not for Sosa’s coast-to-coast layup where he took 15 steps to force OT), I don’t want any part of the two other gorillas until the finals.
I do think that if Marquette had held onto that lead last night, and we had the chance to take a THREE game lead over Pitt, along with the tiebreaker, that would really convince the committee, heading into the BET, that we would have the inside track for the 1 seed. Alas, as it is, I think we definitely need to cheer for PItt to put ourselves in a better position for next week.
Great analysis, Phauz, I feel like I know exactly what I’m looking for now! I will say I’m a bit irritated with this stubborn national consensus about the 1 seeds. A word to any voters who may read this blog (and I’m sure they’re many): just because you decided in your head who the 1 seeds were on Valentine’s Day doesn’t mean you can just ignore the rest of the games and insist those teams are still the 1s. The same goes for the pecking order in the Big East. I fully expect Nova to take care of Providence at home tonight, especially off that Georgetown loss. Go (Villanova Wild) Cats?
by doctorofdunk on Mar 5, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not an ounce of difference
between the Big 3 in the BEAST. With Dyson out, I think that brought UConn back down and made it literally a toss-up as to who is the best in our conf. I won’t be surprised to see any 2 of the 3 get #1 seeds. I just think the quality of losses is what hurts Louisville more than the other 2. We were playing pretty poorly during that stretch when we ended up 8-3 before going on this tear. UConn & Pitt have not had similar stretches, so they have to be the favs to get the two #1 seeds as of right now. But I think ultimately it depends somewhat on what happens between UConn & Pitt in the regular season finale and then if any of the three lose in the Quarterfinals of the BET. It’s gonna be very very close. I’ll take a #2 seed and be happy, believe me, because I can’t forget how horrible I felt back in December. But snagging a #1 would be so sweet! Hey, who remembers the last time Louisville was a 1-seed in the Dance? I can’t say I do.
by CardsFanTX on Mar 5, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Memphis
Memphis is the Boise St. of college football. They go undefeated with a HORRIBLE schedule and somehow get to creep up as teams like Duke lose to UNC or UofL loses a road game in the Big East. The only difference is that the college football voters cap Boise at like 8th each year while Memphis continues to defy odds. If I see “Tennessee” listed in another “Key Win” column for a team’s NCAA resume, I’m going to yak.
On another note, I tried to catch UofL/SH highlights on SportsCenter before I left this morning, but the highlights were not in the first 30 minutes of the show. Unfortunately, the first 7 minutes of the show were devoted to TO and THEN they used minute 13-14 to speak about TO and THEN Keyshawn spoke from minute 18-20 on TO. I mean, seriously, is there anyone in the world who cares about that? I’m not sure which story I’m more sick of: (i) Favre, (ii) TO, (iii) Manny’s contract, (iv) A-Rod or (v) Steroids in general. Sheesh — enough already.
by Quinn1979 on Mar 5, 2009 11:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I hear ya
I’m in Dallas and I don’t give a rat’s ass about T.O. It’s March – lets talk about HOOPS!
by Phauz on Mar 5, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm near Dallas
and I don’t care about TO or the Cowboys. But I’m gonna have to hear about this crap for the next few weeks/months every damn day. Until Jerry Jones dies or his ego decides to take a holiday, the Cowboys will continue to fall short of their potential. Only Jones or Al Davis would hire and keep a loser like the guy they have coaching there.
by CardsFanTX on Mar 5, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm nowehere near Dallas
And I don’t care about TO or the Cowboys.
by Mike Rutherford on Mar 5, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mike beat me to it....
(Read in a Jack Bauer voice) Dammit!
Grog
"There is no OFF position to the genius switch" - D. Letterman
by GrogInOhio on Mar 5, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Providence
Providence is the team I don’t wanna have to go through early. I say screw Notre Dame… bring ’em on!
Grog
"There is no OFF position to the genius switch" - D. Letterman
by GrogInOhio on Mar 5, 2009 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If we win at W. Va
and then win the Big East tournament, we’re a No. 1 seed and I’m not sure, but I think we may never have been a 1 seed in the past. I’m happy with a 2; I’m absolutely beside myself if we’re a 2 to either Memphis or Oklahoma. All the speculation is, of course, meretricious. But fun.
theoldman
by theoldman on Mar 5, 2009 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
looks like we can scratch syracuse off the list
according to phauz’s phacts.
can’t say i’m disappointed about that, frankly. would be ecstatic to play providence or cincy, would really prefer to avoid notre dame and west virginia if we can…
by doctorofdunk on Mar 6, 2009 1:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
or maybe scratch that
i guess if we win, uconn wins, and marquette wins, cuse does get the 7
by doctorofdunk on Mar 6, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now 'Cuse clinched the #6
It’s turning into the ideal situation, IMO…
If we lose to WV, we get a rematch
If we win, we get Prov
by Phauz on Mar 7, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lets Eschew Playing The Games
And decide the champions via diagrams, charts, and possible matchups which we think might eventuate!
That way we can decide everything tonight. Right now.
And we won’t have that little inconvenience like actually playing the games.
by Roz on Mar 7, 2009 6:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You're right
I guess who UofL plays in MSG isn’t interesting to anyone. Enough of that nonsense
Instead, lets talk about Airplane, or um, whatever these topics are…(I’m not sure)
http://www.cardchronicle.com/2009/3/4/780268/is-e5-serious#12751548
http://www.cardchronicle.com/2009/3/5/782185/alternate-sports-illustrat#12792249
http://www.cardchronicle.com/2009/3/3/779052/i-hate-memphis#12712418
by Phauz on Mar 7, 2009 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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