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Big East Tourney Scenarios

And then there were four…as in, four games left that can impact UofL's Big East tourney seed or opponent (or at least opponent in the first round).  Of course, these two:

 

UofL @ WVU, Saturday 9:00 PM

UConn @ Pitt, Saturday noon

 

As previously discussed, if UofL wins and Pitt beats UConn, we win the BE outright.  Any other scenario we get #2

  • UConn and UofL win – UConn gets the title with the head-to-head tiebreaker
  • UofL loss and a UConn win and we finish #2 with no ties
  • UofL loss and a Pitt win – 3 way tie with the following miniconf records (miniconf win % is the first 3-way tie breaker even if uneven number of games were played)
    • Pitt 2-1
    • UofL 1-1
    • UConn 1-2

The other two games that affect our first round opponent:

Providence @ Villanova, Thursday 7:00 PM

Syracuse @ Marquette, Saturday 2:00 PM

 

Of our potential 1st round matchups as the #1 or #2: DePaul (#16), Rutgers (#15), and Cincy (#9) have locked up their seeds.  ND will be the #10 as long as they don’t lose to St. Johns (but it would be pretty cool if they did).  Without further ado, here are the scenarios… 

 

 

Scenario #1 (the good one) – UofL beats WVU and Pitt beats UConn

 

UofL is #1 seed, playing the winner of the #8 and DePaul(#16)/Cincy(#9)

  • If Syracuse beats Marquette AND Nova beats Providence , that puts Syracuse into 6th and WVU/Prov in a tie at 7th.  WVU won that one head-to-head, so our #8 opponent is PROVIDENCE
  • Every other scenario for Syr/Marq and Nova/Prov, WEST VIRGINIA gets the #8

 

Scenario #2 (I can live with this) – UofL beats WVU and UConn beats Pitt

 

UofL is #2 seed, playing the winner of the #7 and Rutgers(#15)/ND(#10)

  • If Syracuse beats Marquette AND Nova beats Providence , same as scenario #1.  Syracuse into 6th and WVU/Prov in a tie at 7th.  WVU won that one head-to-head, so our #7 opponent is WEST VIRGINIA
  • Every other scenario for Syr/Marq and Nova/Prov, SYRACUSE gets the #7

 

Scenario #3 (oh, this would not be good) – UofL loses to WVU then the Pitt/UConn game no longer impacts UofL

 

UofL is still the #2 seed, playing the winner of the #7 and Rutgers(#15)/ND(#10)

  • If Syracuse AND Nova win, WVU and Syracuse tie for 6th.  Syracuse beat them head to head, so the #7 is WEST VIRGINIA
  • If Syracuse AND Providence win, now there is a 3-way tie for 6th.  Prov, Syracuse, WVU have 1-1 records against each other.  Providence wins the tie-breaker win their win over Pitt and SYRACUSE wins the #7 seed with the head-to-head win over WVU. 
  • The other two possibilities, we’ll get PROVIDENCE as the #7
    • Marquette and Nova win – Prov and Syr tie for #7 and Prov wins by HtoH
    • Marquette and Prov win – Prov and WVU tie for #6 and WVU wins by HtoH

Bottom line:

(This assumes we’d rather play Providence than WVU a third time and we’d rather play West Virginia than Syracuse)

 

1.  Cheer for UofL (always)

2.  Cheer for Pitt (I want this championship)

3.  Cheer for Nova on Thursday.  This helps us play Providence instead of WVU or WVU instead of Syracuse.  Nova winning helps good stuff happen.

4.  If Nova beat Providence, cheer for Syracuse over Marquette.  Otherwise the only way the Syracuse/Marquette game impacts us is if we lost to WVU, in which case a Marquette win gives us Providence as our #7.  So I guess if Providence beats Nova, cheer for Marquette just in case. 

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