Interesting blog, re: "lucky" teams

SI's Luke Winn analyzes KenPom's luck stat and compares to tourney results.

Especially interesting because we show up on the list for 2008, although Winn rightly gives us a pass.

Check it out:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/si_blogs/ncaa_tourney/2008/2008/03/meaning-of-bad-luck.html

Also, check out two of the top 10 "lucky" teams: http://kenpom.com/rate.php?s=Luck

I think he needs a better phrase than "luck" to describe this metric.  While it is the difference between "expected value" and "actual results", and in gambling that difference is called luck, in basketball you have some measure of control of things.  

We saw Georgetown pull out all these close games this year, and some of it seemed to be "lucky" calls, but they were leading WVU before the block, they were tied with Nova despite shooting like 15% because they held Nova's shooting down, and Wallace hit all three free throws against Marquette to send it to OT and then Georgetown scored more points.  Against us...well, they hit their wide open 3s, we missed ours.  No luck there.

Now, UT's rank up there is interesting.  I think it confirms "they aren't as good as their record", and they are pulling out close wins against inferior teams.  They also rely heavily on turnovers (see: KenPom article on that at http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=173).  I still think they are the first 1 seed to lose because, while unlucky teams don't turn it around, eventually Tennessee's luck will run out.