Bumped from diaries

Yes, it's the moment I wait for all year - 1 week until the tourney! That means its time to crunch some numbers and see how the seeding can turn out. ;

This post will probably be dated in about 4 hours, so I recommend TiVoing all of today's games and not watching until you completely understand all tourny implications.  

Here we go...

Scenario #1: Everything goes as expected

UL over Nova and GU
GU over Marq
UConn wins out, including beating WV
Pitt over Syr
Cincy over Prov
Syr over Hall

1    #18 Louisville       
2    #10 Georgetown        2-0   
2    #16 Connecticut        1-2        1-0 vs UL
2    #17 Notre Dame    1-2   
5    #21 Marquette       
6    West Virginia       
7    Cincinnati        split        1-0 vs UL
7    Pittsburgh        split        0-1 vs. UL   
9    Villanova        won h to h   
9    Seton Hall       
11    Syracuse       
12    DePaul       
13    Providence        won h to h   
13    St. John's       
15    Rutgers       
16    South Florida       

Louisville plays the winner of the 8/9 game.  Pitt is #8 because they split with Cincy and the next tie-breaker is record vs #1 seed.  Nova beat S Hall heat to head to get the #9 seed.  

Scenario #2: What if GU loses to Marq but beats UofL

1    #10 Georgetown        3-1   
1    #16 Connecticut        2-2    won h to h
1    #18 Louisville        2-2   
1    #17 Notre Dame    1-3   
5    #21 Marquette       
6    West Virginia       
7    Cincinnati        split    1-0 vs RU
7    Pittsburgh        split   
9    Villanova        won h to h   
9    Seton Hall       
11    Syracuse       
12    DePaul       
13    Providence        won h to h   
13    St. John's       
15    Rutgers       
16    South Florida       

This one gave me a headache.  A 4-way tie for first (that's a lot of t-shirts) gets broken with the miniconference record.  GU wins and ND is the #4 seed.  UConn gets the 2 over UofL because of the head-to head game.  Cincy and Pitt split and no team gains a tie-breaker advantage until all the way down to Rutgers(!), which won at Pitt.  

Scenario #3    Same thing, plus UConn loses to WV

1    #10 Georgetown        2-1    split h to h    2-0 vs Vill/SHall
1    #18 Louisville        2-1    split h to h    1-1 vs Vill/SHall
1    #17 Notre Dame    0-2               
4    #16 Connecticut        won h to h               
4    #21 Marquette                   
6    West Virginia                   
7    Cincinnati    split h to h    1-0 vs RU           
7    Pittsburgh    split h to h   
9    Villanova       
9    Seton Hall       
11    Syracuse       
12    DePaul       
13    Providence    won h to h   
13    St. John's       
15    Rutgers       
16    South Florida       

UofL now gets the two.  Same miniconf record as GU and tiebreak goes all the way down to Vill/SHall, where GU wins with 2-0 record.  Cincy-Pitt tiebreaker still goes all the way down to Rutgers.

Scenario #4    Worst case -  UL loses out, UConn drops a game to WV, Marq wins out

Rank           
1    #10 Georgetown        won h to h   
1    #17 Notre Dame       
3    #16 Connecticut        2-0   
3    #18 Louisville        2-1   
3    #21 Marquette        0-3   
6    West Virginia       
7    Pittsburgh        1-1   
7    Cincinnati        0-2    beat Nova h to h
7    Villanova        0-2   
10    Seton Hall       
11    Syracuse       
12    DePaul       
13    Providence    won h to h   
13    St. John's       
15    Rutgers       
16    South Florida       

So, Louisville gets the 4 seed here and plays winner of Marq/DePaul.  Pitt/Cincy/Nova deadlock is broken by record over GU/ND, then Cincy h-to-h win over Nova.  

I think this means out ND win clinched us a bye.  That's pretty important.