Big East seeding outlook (1-4)

by CardsFan922 on Feb 25, 2008 11:52 AM EST Comment 8 comments

Basically if we win out, we win the Big East regular season outright. That's pretty awesome.

I think winning at Georgetown on Senior Day with the Big East title in the balance will be a HUGE task.

So let's look at some possible scenarios....after the jump!

It looks like we are going to have to win out to win the Big East.

Notre Dame has the easiest route -- us, then Depaul, St. Johns and USF. They should end up 14-4.

UConn has the second easiest -- @Rutgers, WVU, @Providence, Cinci. Should be 14-4 (although their win streak was filled with close games, if they keep that up they could drop WVU or Prov games). But likely end up 14-4.

Gtown has the second hardest route -- St. John's, at Marquette, us at home (senior day). I think they lose at Marquette, meaning they need to beat us to get to 14-4.

We have the hardest -- ND, streaking Nova fighting for tourney lives, @Gtown on senior day. Yikes. I still think we win 2 at home and then go to Gtown with a chance to win the league outright. What a game that will be. Let's say 14-4 though.

If we all end up 14-4, chaos. Gtown wins by being 3-1 against that group, right? ND is 4th by being 1-3 against that group. We are 2-2 and UConn is 2-2, so I guess we get the 3 seed because they beat us?

So we need UConn to lose again, need to beat ND and Nova, and then we go to Gtown assured 1st or 2nd, depending on that game.

But if we win out -- we are the solo Big East champs. No math needed there.

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Analysis

Phauz, will you please confirm this analysis?

by Quinn1979 on Feb 25, 2008 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth ...

this looks right to me.

Win out and we're alone at top @ 15-3.

Wins / losses as predicted by Pomeroy (which has UConn winning out, Marquette winning out including over Georgetown and Villanova, us over Notre Dame and Villanova, but Georgetown over us), we have 4 @ 14-4 and they're seeded Georgetown > UConn > UofL > Notre Dame by the mini-conference and then head-to-head tie-breakers.

And as Mike noted, we have to lose all three with Marquette winning out to fall below 4th, since they can't finish better than 13-5 and we swept them.

by statprof on Feb 25, 2008 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2 questions

just to test you guys:

What if the 4-way tie at 14-4 occurs with us beating GU and ND beating us? Then we have 4 teams who are 2-2 in the mini conference, and I think all heck breaks loose?
What if we end at 13-5 with Marquette and, say, UConn or ND (to whom we lose)? Is there a possibility that by getting into a 3-way tie that we could lose a bye at this point?

Just an opportunity to let you math guys impress.

by 83fan on Feb 25, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh....

...I'll defer to Phauz on that. He is the best mathlete I know.

by CardsFan922 on Feb 25, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's see ...

The first scenario doesn't give 4-way tie -- ND would be 15-3 and end first. In the 3-way with GU and UConn, we'd be 2-1, GU would be 1-2, and UConn 1-1. So ND #1, UofL #2, UConn#3, GU #4.

The first scenario with some weird ND loss (one of DePaul, USF, or SJU) gives the 4-way with everybody 2-2. Then we start working down the rankings and comparing records against each in turn. If Marquette is still 5th (they're tight with Nova as I write ...), then we're in the sweet spot at 2-0. Then UConn at 1-0, Notre Dame at 1-1, Georgetown at 0-1. So UofL #1, UConn #2, ND #3, GU #4.

Second scenario w/ UConn. We beat Nova but lose to GU and ND, 13-5. UConn loses to WVU, 13-5. Marquette wins out. Threeway with UofL, UConn, Marquette. We're 2-1, UConn is 1-0, Marquette 0-3. We're #3, UConn is #4, and Marquette misses the bye.

Second scenario w/ND. Same for us, 13-5. Same for Marquette, 13-5. ND beats us but loses two of the DePaul, SJU, USF trio (!), 13-5. Threeway with UofL, ND, and Marquette. We're 2-1, ND is 2-1, Marquetee is 1-3. Now ND #3, UofL #4, and Marquette again out.

by statprof on Feb 25, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the hard work

And yes, I was suggesting ND with some weird loss (although I thought they had one other hard game remaining).

However, as I understand it, you can't get an advantage over another team by playing an extra game. So in the mini-conference where we are 2-0 against Marquette and UConn is 1-0, my thought is that we'd have to go further down the list to decide between 1 and 2.

I guess we're just going to have to win out and forget this crazy nonsense.

by 83fan on Feb 25, 2008 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs