Who to Root For This Weekend

This was orginally posted by Phauz in the comments section of the the latest BE Tourney bracket update, but it's so well done that I think it deserves to be posted on the front page.

Am I alone in loving the playoff scenario that comes with the last week or two of the NFL season? Looks like we have a similarly complicated mess to try to figure out the Big East.  

Don't have 3 master's degrees or the time to figure all of this out.  If you are a UofL fan trying to figure out who to cheer for on Saturday, read on:

Of the remaining games, only 5 really matter to UofL's seeding and 1st round opponent:

Pitt at Marquette (Saturday)
Syracuse at Villanova (Saturday)
Cincinnati at West Virginia (Saturday)
Seton Hall at Louisville (Sunday)
Providence at St. John's (Sunday)

Assuming that WV, UofL, and Prov are locks against lesser opponents, 4 likely scenarios remain:

Scenario #1 - Villanova over Syracuse, Pitt over Marquette:

This leads to a 5-way tie for 6th at 9-7 records with DePaul, Marquette, Providence, WV, and Villinova.  

The tie is broken by treating the 5 teams as a mini conference (best winning % if uneven number of games).  Teams would have the following records:

#6 Dep (2-1)  
#7 Marq (3-2)
#8 Prov (2-2) - owns head to head tiebreaker over WV
#9 WV(2-2)
#10 Vill (1-3)

So, the 1st round of the tourney would look like this for UofL:

#3 UofL vs winner of  #6 DePaul/#11 UConn

Scenario #2 - Syracuse over Villanova, Pitt over Marquette:

Villanova drops out of the 9-7 tie.  This leaves the following mini-conference:

#6 Prov (2-1)
#7 Dep (1-1) - DePaul owns the tie-breaker over Marquette
#8 Marq (2-2)
#9 WV (1-2)

Tourney:  

#3 UofL vs winner of  #6 Providence/#11 UConn

Scenario #3 - Villanova over Syracuse, Marquette over Pitt:

UofL gets the #2 seed by head-to-head win over Pitt

Mini-conference:
#7 WV (2-1)
#8 Prov (1-1)  
#9 Dep (1-1)
#10 Vill (1-2)

Providence and DePaul did not play in the regular season, so it goes to section I-2-b of the tie-breaking code, where you take record against the top teams in the conference.  Only dominant records prevail, so a 1-0 record does not win against 0-0, a 1-1 does not beat an 0-1, etc.  

See this link for the Big East tie-breaker formula:
http://www.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/bige/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/tiebreaker07

It goes all the way down to WV at #7.  Provdence gets the #8 because they have a 1-0 record against WV while DePaul was 0-1.  They only thing that really changes is their uniform color, because they are playing each other 1st round anyway.  

Tourney:  

#2 UofL vs winner of  #7 West Virginia/#10 Villanova

Scenario #4 - Syracuse over Villanova, Marquette over Pitt:

UofL gets the #2 seed by head-to-head win over Pitt, Villanova drops out of the 9-7 tie.  This leaves the following mini-conference:

#7 Prov (1-0)
#8 WV (1-1)
#9 Dep (0-1)

Tourney:  

#2 UofL vs winner of  #7 Providence/#10 Villanova

Personally, I like UofL's chances in scenario #1 because I think DePaul and UConn are the weakest pair.  So, it is actually better if UofL gets the 3 seed.  Thoughts????

Phauz
Nerd who likes to waste time at work